据 Allspring Global Investments 称，印尼银行股和电信股可能面临进一步损失，因为该国管理最好的公司难以在 MSCI 公司可能降级的风险下免受广泛抛售的影响。
Indonesian banks and telecommunication stocks may face further losses, as the nation’s best-run companies struggle to stay immune from any broad selloff on the risk of a downgrade by MSCI Inc., according to Allspring Global Investments.
这两个板块约占 MSCI 印尼指数的 80%，自 1 月该指数编制方首次警告可能降级东南亚市场以来，该指数已暴跌逾 40%。在此期间，PT Telkom Indonesia Persero（印尼电信）股价近乎腰斩，而包括 PT Bank Central Asia（印尼中央亚洲银行）和 PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero（印尼人民银行）在内的主要贷款机构股价均至少下跌了 23%。
The two sectors account for around 80% of the MSCI Indonesia Index, which has plunged over 40% since January when the index compiler first warned of downgrading the Southeast Asian market. Shares of PT Telkom Indonesia Persero have nearly halved in this period, while major lenders including PT Bank Central Asia and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero have each lost at least 23%.
“这种由 MSCI 引发的抛售具有讽刺意味：印尼的银行和电信公司在经营记录和信息披露方面属于该国最强的公司之一，也是共识持仓，”Allspring 投资组合经理 Gary Tan 表示。“然而，随着主动管理基金在 MSCI 6 月市场分类审议前降低风险，它们可能面临不成比例的抛售压力，”管理该公司新兴市场股票基金的团队成员 Tan 说。
“The irony in this MSCI-led selloff is that Indonesia’s banks and telecom companies are among the country’s strongest companies in terms of operating track record and disclosure, and are consensus holdings,” said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring. “Yet they could face disproportionate selling pressure as active managers reduce risk ahead of MSCI’s June market classification review,” said Tan, who is a member of a team that manages the firm’s Emerging Markets Equity Fund.
上周五，在 MSCI 警告印尼新兴市场地位岌岌可危、引发可能被全球指数剔除的担忧后，印尼股市遭遇近三十年来最严重的暴跌。尽管当局已采取措施降低风险，包括承诺将紧密持股公司从基准指数中剔除，但 MSCI 6 月做出最终决定前的不确定性意味着主动管理基金仍可能选择减持指数重仓股。
Indonesia suffered its worst stock rout in nearly three decades on Friday after MSCI warned the country’s emerging-market status was in jeopardy, raising the prospect of withdrawal from global indexes. While authorities have taken steps to ease the risk, including a pledge to remove closely held companies from the benchmark gauge, uncertainties before MSCI’s final decision in June mean actively managed funds may still choose to cut exposure to index heavyweights.
截至 9 月，Tan 共同管理的基金将 2.27% 的资产配置于印尼股票，而基准权重为 0.43%。
The fund Tan co-manages had 2.27% of its assets invested in Indonesian stocks as of September, versus the benchmark weighting of 0.43%.
Tan 表示，他正在关注印尼当局对 MSCI 的回应，但对事态如何发展几乎看不出明朗迹象。
Tan said he is watching Indonesian authorities’ response to MSCI but sees little clarity on how the situation will unfold.
“考虑到局势依然多变，且近期可能还有进一步的政策干预，我们认为现在判断是否触底还为时过早，”他说。
“Our sense is still too early to call a bottom given how fluid the situation remains and the potential for further policy intervention in the near term,” he said.