
曼谷 — — 受快速增长的经济、年轻人口和更广泛的手机使用推动,东南亚初创企业在2020年代初吸引了投资者。但疫情之后热情降温,因为资本成本上升,人工智能热潮将投资吸引向中国和美国,以及高调丑闻给该行业蒙上阴影,特别是在印度尼西亚。
BANGKOK -- Buoyed by fast-growing economies, young populations and wider mobile phone use, Southeast Asian startups drew investors in the early 2020s. But enthusiasm cooled after the pandemic as capital costs rose, the artificial intelligence boom drew investment toward China and the U.S., and high-profile scandals cast a shadow over the sector, particularly in Indonesia.
根据DealStreetAsia的数据,2026年股权融资出现复苏迹象,达到四年来最高水平 — — 尽管这主要是由DayOne数据中心的两笔融资轮推动。然而,今年尚未出现估值达10亿美元的新独角兽公司 — — 自2018年以来首次出现这种情况。
Equity funding has shown signs of recovery in 2026, reaching its highest level in four years -- albeit largely driven by a two-tranche round for DayOne Data Centers, according to DealStreetAsia. However, this year there have been no new unicorns companies with a $1 billion valuation -- for the first time since 2018.
尽管该地区的投资者、创始人和其他生态系统参与者欢迎这一回升,但许多人表示,更深层次的结构性因素限制了该地区的增长,并成为未来潜力的制约因素。除了新加坡之外,该地区存在四个突出问题:对外国企业家缺乏开放性、法律环境不可预测、资本深度不足以及在海外扩张困难。
While investors, founders and others in the region's ecosystem welcomed the uptick, many said deeper structural factors had constrained the region's growth and act as a brake on future potential. With the exception of Singapore four themes stand out: a lack of openness to foreign entrepreneurs, unpredictable legal regimes, shallow depth of capital and difficulty in expanding abroad.
“我们在东南亚支持的这些公司仅在东南亚运作。事实上,它们仅在东南亚的关键经济体中运作,”Quest Ventures的管理合伙人James Tan对《日经亚洲》表示。该公司是东南亚领先的风险投资公司。“而如果你在硅谷,你是在为全球构建产品。”即使在2021年达到顶峰时,这一繁荣也十分狭窄。DealStreetAsia列出的该地区独角兽公司中,近60%注册于新加坡,18%注册于印度尼西亚。
"These companies that we are backing in Southeast Asia only function in Southeast Asia In fact, they only function in the key economies of Southeast Asia," James Tan, managing partner at Quest Ventures, a leading Southeast Asian venture capital firm, told Nikkei Asia. "Whereas if you are in Silicon Valley, you are building for the world." Even at its height in 2021, the boom was narrow. Nearly 60% of the region's unicorns listed by DealStreetAsia are incorporated in Singapore and 18% are in Indonesia. Furthermore, even the top performers look underweight by global standards.
此外,即使是表现最好的公司,按全球标准来看也显得不足。总部位于新加坡、东南亚领先的叫车和外卖应用Grab,于2021年通过全球最大的特殊目的收购公司合并,在纽约纳斯达克上市,估值达396亿美元。如今其市值约为122.5亿美元。相比之下,优步的估值接近1500亿美元。
Grab, the region's top ride-hailing and delivery app based in Singapore, listed on the Nasdaq in New York in 2021 via the world's largest merger through a special purpose acquisition company valued at $39.6 billion. Today its market cap sits around $12.25 billion. Uber, in contrast, has a valuation of nearly $150 billion. Over 80% of all founders of unicorn companies in Singapore had foreign origins, according to research by Nikkei Asia based on DealStreetAsia's list of unicorns.
根据Nikkei Asia依据DealStreetAsia独角兽名单的研究,新加坡所有独角兽公司创始人中,超过80%具有外国背景。其中,15.5%来自其他东盟成员国。
Of these, 15.5% were from other ASEAN member states. Foreign-origin unicorn founders are scarce elsewhere in the region, apart from Indonesia.
除了印度尼西亚之外,该地区其他地区的外国背景独角兽创始人较为罕见。新加坡庞大的外籍人口有助于解释这一差异,但其他国家也拥有富裕且受过良好教育的外国人。在新加坡之外,外国与本土初创企业生态系统之间可能存在分歧。
Singapore's large foreign population helps explain the difference, but other countries are also home to affluent, educated foreigners. Outside Singapore, a divide can exist between foreign and domestic startup ecosystems. "Thai startups, aside from those in the high profile accelerators, we rarely have direct access to them," said Mike Miguel, general partner at ASEAN-focused venture capital fund 90 Proof Capital.
“泰国的初创企业,除了那些知名度高的加速器之外,我们很少能直接接触到它们,”专注于东盟的风险投资基金90 Proof Capital的普通合伙人Mike Miguel表示。“我们在野外能够接触到的那些公司,其股权结构已经被学校或政府资助的孵化器瓜分殆尽。”公司的股权结构表(cap table)是其股权所有权的细分,以及可供IPO前投资者认购的比例。
"Those we do get access to in the wild, their cap table has already been gobbled up by a school or government-funded incubator." A company's cap (capitalization) table is its breakdown of stock ownership, and how much is available to pre-IPO investors. A rendering of a planned DayOne Data Centers facility in Malaysia.
马来西亚规划中的DayOne Data Centers设施效果图。这家初创企业获得了今年东南亚任何初创企业中规模最大的融资。
The startup has secured the biggest funding injection this year of any Southeast Asian startup. DayOne Trung Hoang, a partner at VinaCapital Ventures, a Vietnam-based venture capital investment fund, told Nikkei Asia that the country "is more open than many people think."
越南本土风险投资基金VinaCapital Ventures的合伙人DayOne Trung Hoang对Nikkei Asia表示,越南“比许多人想象的更加开放。”但他补充说,越南的生态系统主要围绕本土创始人、国内市场和本地执行能力建立。
But he added that Vietnam's ecosystem has been built around local founders, domestic markets and local execution capability. "As a result, foreign founders often find that relationships, local market knowledge and trusted local partners are particularly important," he said.
“因此,外国创始人常常发现,人际关系、本地市场知识和可信赖的本地合作伙伴尤为重要,”他表示。
For Indonesia the scope of opportunities as the region's largest economy might be behind its ability to attract foreign founders.
对于印度尼西亚而言,作为该地区最大经济体所蕴含的机遇规模,或许正是其能够吸引外国创始人的原因所在。
"Indonesia's large economy, a 280 million population, and admittedly many, many problems which meant many, many opportunities attracts many foreigners to try to tackle these problems," said Eddi Danusaputro, chair of the Indonesian Venture Capital Association for Startups.
“印度尼西亚拥有庞大的经济体、2.8亿人口,以及众所周知的许多、许多问题,这意味着许多、许多机遇,吸引了许多外国人前来尝试解决这些问题,” 印度尼西亚创业投资协会主席埃迪·达努萨普特罗说道。繁重且难以预测的官僚体制也同样令人担忧。
Onerous and unpredictable bureaucracy also looms large. "Thailand can be a great place to build a business, it's just that its complexity makes being prepared and having experienced local guidance less of an option and more of a necessity," said Cleveland C. English III, whose Bangkok firms, Br'er Rabbit Legal and Br'er Rabbit Advisory, provide legal and corporate advice.
“泰国可以是建立企业的好地方,只是其复杂性使得做好准备并获得有经验的当地指导从一种选择变成了必需,” 克利夫兰·C·英格利希三世说道,他的曼谷公司Br'er Rabbit Legal和Br'er Rabbit Advisory提供法律和企业咨询服务。
"I set up companies in Iraq and Afghanistan during the wars.
“我在伊拉克和阿富汗战争期间成立了公司。实际上那更容易,” 他补充道,并补充说,如果泰国“没有那么美妙,性价比也没有那么高,没人会想在这里创业。”监管问题对泰国的外国企业家尤其沉重。许多寻求投资委员会的批准,该委员会可以允许完全外资所有制,并为符合条件的活动提供丰厚的税收优惠。英格利希估计,如果申请人准备不足,整个流程可能长达一年。结果是,许多企业选择在新加坡注册。
It was actually easier," he said, adding that if Thailand "wasn't so amazing, and the value for money so great, nobody would want to set up a business here." Regulatory issues are particularly burdensome for foreign entrepreneurs in Thailand. Many seek approval from the Board of Investment, which can permit full foreign ownership and offer generous tax incentives for eligible activities. English estimates that the overall process can take up to a year if applicants are not adequately prepared. The result is that many incorporate in Singapore.
“对于希望在亚洲扩张的公司而言,在新加坡或香港设立控股公司可以使国际扩张和融资变得更容易,” 曼谷Jadou Technologies的创始人杰森·伯纳德说道,该公司正致力于研发能够从空气中去除一氧化碳的无人机。
"For companies looking to expand across Asia, having a holding company in Singapore or Hong Kong can make international expansion and fundraising easier," said Jason Bernard, founder of Jadou Technologies, based in Bangkok, which is seeking to develop drones that remove carbon monoxide from the air.
“这些司法管辖区提供了更符合国际投资者熟悉程度的公司结构,有助于减少投资摩擦,使未来的融资轮次更易应对。” 下一个问题是资金相对不足。
"These jurisdictions offer corporate structures that are more familiar to international investors, helping reduce investment friction and making future funding rounds easier to navigate." The next issue is a relative lack of funding.
5月13日,Grab外卖骑手停在曼谷一家面馆前。Grab是东南亚最知名的本土初创企业之一,但其估值近年来有所下降。
Grab delivery riders parked in front of a noodle restaurant in Bangkok on May 13. Grab is one of Southeast Asia's best known homegrown startups but its valuation has fallen in recent years.
陈表示,东南亚确实拥有一个非常活跃的后期风险投资基金市场或生态系统。然而,新加坡对此实行垄断。据DealStreetAsia报道,2026年上半年,该城邦总部的公司占据了该地区近92%的股权融资。
Southeast Asia does "have a very vibrant late-stage venture capital fund market or ecosystem," Tan said. However, Singapore monopolizes this. In the first half of 2026 companies headquartered in the city-state captured nearly 92% of equity funding in the region, according to DealStreetAsia.
Bui Hoai Nam是越南数字奖励和员工福利解决方案平台UrBox的首席执行官,他于2015年创立了该公司。他花了三年时间才获得第一轮投资,上一轮融资是在2021年。
Bui Hoai Nam, CEO of UrBox, a digital rewards and employee benefit solution platform in Vietnam, founded his company in 2015. It took three years to secure his first investment round and his last round was in 2021.
Nam认为,该地区初创企业面临的融资挑战包括:对过去有失败经历的连续创业者缺乏容忍度;小型企业被大型企业的科技投资挤出;技术人才过剩,导致复制任何成功模式都变得容易;以及“创始人合规性和诚信问题”,使投资者更加谨慎。
Nam believes that fundraising challenges facing startups across the region include a lack of tolerance for serial entrepreneurs with past failures, small players being squeezed out by major corporations' tech investments, an abundance of tech talent making copycatting any successful model easy, and "problems of founder compliance and integrity" making investors more cautious.
最后一点在印度尼西亚尤其严重,该国曾遭受多起丑闻打击,其中包括eFishery,这家印尼独角兽公司因被指控大规模虚报财务业绩而倒闭。
The last point weighs particularly heavily on Indonesia, which has been rocked by several scandals notably eFishery, an Indonesian unicorn that collapsed amid allegations of extensive misreporting of its financial performance.
新加坡咨询公司YCP的合伙人Anil Rai对《日经亚洲》表示:“这些丑闻显然影响了信心,尤其是当涉及的公司得到知名机构投资者支持,并被宣传为该地区的成功案例时。”
"The scandals have clearly affected confidence, particularly when the companies involved were backed by established institutional investors and had been presented as success stories for the region," Anil Rai, partner at the Singapore-based consulting firm YCP, told Nikkei Asia.
结果是,该地区的投资者变得更加谨慎。他们要求更多信息,花更多时间进行尽职调查,并在投资前更加注重财务控制。Rai补充道:“这给真正的企业带来了额外的困难。”
The result is investors in the region have become more cautious. They demand more information, spend more time on due diligence, and put more emphasis on financial controls before investing. "That creates additional difficulties for genuine businesses," Rai added.
除了新加坡,资金有限制约了扩张,并可能迫使创始人以少量资金换取大量股权,从而留给未来投资者的股份更少。
Outside Singapore, limited funding constrains expansion and can force founders to surrender substantial equity for little capital, leaving less to offer future investors.
“我和泰国或越南的许多大学生交流时发现,他们在换取锁定、全部股份和整桶的孵化、一些办公空间以及很多时候远低于应有水平的支票时,往往被迫将股权表的很大一部分束缚住,而这些支票很多时候甚至在新闻稿发布很久之后仍未到他们手中,”米格尔说。
"A lot of the college kids I talk to in Thailand or Vietnam have had a substantial part of their cap table hamstrung in exchange for lock, stock and barrel incubation, some office space, and many times a disproportionately low check that many times never even reaches them, long after the news release," Miguel said.
同样,在越南,“增长阶段的公司数量远多于可用的增长资本,”黄说。这使得投资者拥有定价权。“这可能导致创始人面临的股权让步比在更成熟的市场中更大。”人们表示,更大的问题是缺乏退出渠道,这会让投资者却步,并限制可用于再投资的资本。
Similarly, in Vietnam "there is far less growth capital than there are growth-stage companies," Hoang said. This gives investors pricing power. "That can lead to larger equity concessions than founders might face in deeper markets." The bigger problem, people said, is a shortage of exits, which discourages investors and limits capital available for reinvestment.
“流动性尚未到位,”黄说,他的基金曾投资于UrBox。“在我们第一只基金的投资组合中,我们曾在2018年成功将一家公司送上IPO,但仅此而已。其他所有的退出要么通过战略收购,要么通过并购完成。”越南数字奖励和员工福利解决方案平台UrBox的首席执行官裴海南。(UrBox)越南的首次公开发行规定要求公司必须实现两年盈利且无累计亏损。这与许多科技初创企业高现金消耗的商业模式格格不入。
"The liquidity is not there yet," said Hoang, whose fund has invested in UrBox. "In our portfolio of the very first fund, we've been able to bring one company to IPO back in 2018, but that's it. All of the other exits have been done either via strategic sales or M&A." Bui Hoai Nam, CEO of UrBox, a digital rewards and employee benefit solution platform in Vietnam. (UrBox) In Vietnam initial public offering rules require a company to have two years of profit and no accumulated losses. This fits badly with the high cash-burn models of many tech startups.
但就在整个地区,一些上市要求更灵活的国家也难以提供有吸引力的退出渠道。印尼股票交易所于2022年4月修改了规则,允许电商和叫车巨头GoTo以330亿美元的市值上市。其股价曾一度飙升至442印尼卢比(当时约合3美分),如今却跌至23印尼卢比。其他独角兽如Bukalapak的估值也出现了崩盘。
But across the region, countries with more flexible listing requirements also struggle to offer attractive exits. The Indonesia Stock Exchange changed its rules to allow the listing of e-commerce and ride-hailing giant GoTo at a market cap of $33 billion in April 2022. After hitting a peak of 442 rupiah (3 cents at the time), its share price is now trading at 23 rupiah. Other unicorns like Bukalapak have also seen their valuations collapse.
“我听到越来越多的初创企业正在考虑区域交易所,包括香港,”达纳萨普特罗说。对他们而言,新加坡已不在考虑范围之内。
"I hear more and more startups considering regional bourses, including Hong Kong," Danusaputro said. Singapore is less on the radar for them.
确实,即使是新加坡也在退出问题上挣扎,谭观察到。该国是东南亚的硅谷、纽约和特拉华州的合体——一个汇聚科技人才、金融和企业注册的中心,他说。
Indeed, even Singapore struggles with exits, Tan observed. The country is Southeast Asia's Silicon Valley, New York and Delaware rolled into one -- a hub of tech talent, finance and corporate registrations, he said.
“然而,我们的科技股股票市场几乎不存在,”他说。“这简直令人费解。”更深的资本池和习惯于为高增长科技公司估值的分析师使纳斯达克和纽约证券交易所成为上市的圣地,谭说。
"And yet our stock market for technology stocks is non-existent," he said. "That just boggles the mind." Deeper capital pools and analysts accustomed to valuing high-growth tech companies make the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange a mecca for listings, Tan said.
图右为曼谷Jadou Technologies公司创始人杰森·伯纳德和道格拉斯·萨尔丹哈。(Jadou Technologies)但美国上市所带来的所谓更大资本获取可能是虚幻的,因为这些东盟股票常常被忽视、冷落,缺乏分析师的关注。
Jason Bernard, right, and Douglas Saldanha, founders of Bangkok-based Jadou Technologies. (Jadou Technologies) But the supposed greater access to capital a U.S. listing affords can be illusory, as such ASEAN stocks often languish, overlooked by analysts. "The cons of listing in the U.S. are that nobody there understands what's happening in the markets that we are in," Tan said.
“在美国上市的缺点在于,那里没有人了解我们所在市场的情况,”谭说。“投资者对美国以外地区,尤其是东南亚的了解几乎为零。”不过,也有人看到积极迹象。米格尔指出近期活动的回暖,认为虽然低利率时代的“旅游资本”可能已经消失,但一代更具耐心的资本正在形成。政府和证券交易所也在努力从科技经济中获取更多收益。
"Investor understanding of anywhere outside of the U.S. and particularly in Southeast Asia is practically non-existent." Some see positive signs, however. Pointing to the recent uptick in activity, Miguel suggests that while "tourist capital" from the era of cheap rates may have gone, a new generation of more patient capital is developing. Governments and stock exchanges are also trying to capture more benefits from the tech economy.
新加坡交易所现在允许在其交易所和纳斯达克进行双重上市。泰国证券交易所已修订规则,以降低“新经济”公司的上市门槛,并允许双重上市。马来西亚的 Bursa 提高了盈利要求,但在其他方面放宽了上市要求。越南政府正在建设国际金融中心,以深化国内资本池。
The Singapore Stock Exchange now allows dual listings on its bourse and the Nasdaq. The Stock Exchange of Thailand has amended its rules to ease listing requirements for "new economy" companies and also allow dual listings. Malaysia's Bursa hiked profit requirements but eased listing requirements in other ways. And Vietnam's government is establishing international financial centers to deepen domestic capital pools.
印度尼西亚可能仍将面临困难。全球指数提供商MSCI将其股票交易所从新兴市场降级为可能的独立市场地位的举措,已经吸走了该国的资本。
Indonesia might continue to struggle though. The moves by global index provider MSCI to downgrade its stock exchange from emerging market to possibly standalone market status have sucked capital out of the country.
但超越本土市场的规模化挑战仍然存在。考虑到东盟11个经济体的合计经济规模达4.5万亿美元,进入邻国似乎很合乎逻辑。但各国之间的监管、语言和文化差异意味着“在所有国家同时实现规模化并不容易”,南姆如是说。
But the final challenge of scaling beyond home markets persists. Expanding into neighboring countries seems logical, given ASEAN's $4.5 trillion combined economy spread across 11 economies. But regulatory, linguistic and cultural differences between countries mean "it's not easy to scale in all countries at the same time," said Nam.
东南亚许多初创企业的性质放大了这一文化差距问题。谭认为,成功的初创企业往往更依赖于复制已有的商业模式,而非创新,然后凭借深厚的本地知识赢得国内市场。
This issue of cultural gaps is amplified by the nature of many Southeast Asian startups. Successful ones often rely less on innovation than on copying established business models and then winning domestic markets based on deep local knowledge, argued Tan.
但“深入的本地理解也意味着你必须非常本地化,”他说。“而在比如说短短10年的时间里,你能在多少市场中做到非常本地化?”约瑟夫·拉赫曼是本文的撰稿人。
But "deep local understanding also means that you have to be very local," he said. "And how many markets can you be very local in -- in say a short span of 10 years?" Joseph Rachman is a contributing writer.