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以色列的本-格维尔有望在选举中有所斩获,年轻选民转向极右翼Israel’s Ben-Gvir poised for election gains as young voters turn to far right

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伊塔马尔·本-格维尔的“犹太力量党”在以色列大选前支持率不断上升,尤其是在年轻选民和首次投票的选民中,尽管他长期以来一直是一个持强硬立场的极端主义者。

Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power is gaining support before Israel’s election, especially among young and first-time voters, despite his long record as a hardline extremist.

民调显示,内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团可能会失去席位,但在呼吁犹太人自豪感、更严厉的监狱规则和更多枪支许可证的助推下,本-格维尔自己可能会赢得八个或更多的席位。

Polls show Netanyahu’s Likud may lose seats, but Ben-Gvir could win eight or more on his own, helped by calls for Jewish pride, harsher prison rules and more gun permits.

他的行动招致了全球谴责和几个国家的制裁,然而支持者认为这证明了他挺身维护以色列,并拒绝接受西方的批评。

His actions have brought global condemnation and sanctions from several countries, yet supporters see this as proof he stands up for Israel and reject Western criticism.

人工智能生成 特拉维夫——他用一个饰有绞索图案的蛋糕庆祝了自己的五十岁生日。他说他计划用鳄鱼包围被关押的巴勒斯坦人。在视频中,他训斥在海上试图向加沙运送援助物资而被抓获的外国活动人士,迫使他们跪在他的脚下,脸贴着地面。

AI generated TEL AVIV – He celebrated his 50th birthday with a cake decorated with a noose. He says he plans to surround jailed Palestinians with crocodiles. In videos, he berates foreign activists captured at sea trying to bring aid to Gaza, forced to kneel at his feet with their faces pressed to the ground.

对于世界大部分地区和许多以色列人来说,伊塔马尔·本-格维尔作为以色列极右翼的好战面孔,虽然在总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡政府中担任了四年多的警察部长,但仍是一个政治边缘人物。

To much of the world and to many Israelis, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the bellicose face of Israel's far right, is a figure from the fringe of politics, despite over four years in power as police minister in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

但随着下周大选的临近,民调显示其“犹太力量党”的支持率有所上升,其支持者已不再局限于被占领约旦河西岸的核心激进定居者,而是扩展到了更年轻的城市选民,这些人过去可能认为他出格得不可理喻。

But with an election due next week, polls show a boost in his Jewish Power party’s support, reaching beyond its core of militant settlers in the occupied West Bank, to younger, urban voters who might once have considered him beyond the pale.

根据耶路撒冷希伯来大学阿甘实验室的一项民意调查,“犹太力量党”的支持者不仅比普通以色列选民年轻,而且其中多达三分之一的人将是首次投票。

According to an opinion poll by Agam Labs at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University, not only are Jewish Power supporters younger than the average Israeli voter, but as many as a third of them will be voting for the first time.

“我过去觉得他有点疯狂,但后来我真正研究了他所说的话,发现这一切都很有道理,”来自耶路撒冷附近贝特谢梅什的十八岁学生、首次投票者加夫里埃尔·马尔蒙说。

“I used to think he was a bit crazy, but then I actually looked at what he was saying, and it all made sense,” said Gavriel Marmon, an 18-year-old student and first-time voter from Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem.

马尔蒙指出,本-格维尔发起了一项于3月通过的法律,规定对因袭击以色列人而被定罪的巴勒斯坦人判处绞刑作为默认刑罚,本-格维尔曾用绞索蛋糕和绞索翻领别针庆祝该法的通过。该法案预计将被以色列法院推翻,部分原因是它不会对犹太人适用相同的惩罚。

Marmon points to Ben-Gvir’s sponsoring of a law passed in March that makes hanging the default sentence for Palestinians convicted of attacks on Israelis, which Ben-Gvir celebrated with the noose cake and a noose lapel pin. The Bill is likely to be struck down by the Israeli courts, in part because it would not apply the same punishment to Jews.

本-格维尔甚至正在国际化的大特拉维夫取得进展,这里长期以来是以色列自由主义的堡垒。41岁的奥德莉亚·凯德米表示,他扩大以色列人持枪许可的政策“让我的肺里有了空气”。

Ben-Gvir is even making inroads in cosmopolitan Tel Aviv, long the bastion of Israeli liberalism. Odelia Kedmi, 41, said his policy to expand permits for Israelis to carry guns had “put air in my lungs”.

“这几乎就像特朗普总统的实力维跟和平,”凯德米的妹妹在2023年10月7日哈马斯武装人员对诺瓦音乐节的袭击中幸存下来,这场袭击引发了加沙战争。“但这是通过犹太人的实力来实现的和平。”

“It’s almost like President Trump’s peace through strength,” said Kedmi, whose sister survived the attack by Hamas militants on the Nova music festival on Oct 7, 2023, that triggered the Gaza war. “But peace through Jewish strength.”

“对强硬立场而言的危险组合” 以色列10月27日的选举是自2023年哈马斯主导的袭击以来的首次选举。许多以色列人将以色列历史上最致命袭击的发生归咎于内塔尼亚胡政府的失职,民意调查显示,这位总理领导的利库德集团在拥有120个席位的议会中,其32个席位预计将失去大约三分之一。

‘Toxic combination for hardline attitudes’ Israel's Oct 27 election is the first since the 2023 Hamas-led attacks. Many Israelis blame failures by Netanyahu’s government for the deadliest attacks in Israel’s history, and polls show the prime minister’s own Likud party on course to lose around a third of its 32 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

然而,现在断言内塔尼亚胡的反对派能否最终推翻以色列历史上最右翼的政府还为时过早,因为许多选民,尤其是年轻人,正向更右翼的方向转变。

Yet it is still too early to say whether Netanyahu’s opponents can finally unseat the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, thanks to a shift of many voters, especially the young, even further to the right.

民意调查显示,内塔尼亚胡的阵营和以前军事长官加迪·艾森科特领导的主要由犹太人主导的反对党,在获得多数席位方面均未达到要求。

Opinion polls show both Netanyahu’s bloc and the main Jewish-led opposition parties, led by that of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, falling short of securing a majority.

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与伊塔马尔·本-格维尔握手,当时以色列政府批准了内塔尼亚胡重新任命本-格维尔为国家安全大臣的提议。照片:路透社Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Itamar Ben-Gvir shake hands as Israel's government approves Netanyahu's proposal to reappoint Itamar Ben-Gvir as minister of National Security. PHOTO: REUTERS

但本-格维尔的“犹太力量党”在2022年曾依赖与其他两个极右翼团体的联合名单,以确保达到赢得席位的门槛,而现在预计该党单独参选就能赢得8个或更多席位。

But Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power, which in 2022 relied on a joint list with two other far-right groups to be sure of making the threshold to win seats, is now forecast to win eight or more seats standing on its own.

这将使其大致与曾统治以色列几代人的前工党残余势力不相上下——工党现在被称为“民主党”,是唯一一个仍然支持巴勒斯坦冲突“两国方案”的主要犹太人领导的政党。

That would put it roughly on par with the rump of the former Labour Party that governed Israel for generations, now known as the Democrats, the only major Jewish-led party that still backs a two-state solution to the Palestinian conflict.

在以色列拥挤的右翼阵营中,执政联盟的另一位主要极右翼人物、财政部长比撒列·斯莫特里奇曾因在宗教学生兵役豁免问题上态度摇摆而遭遇支持动摇,许多民族主义者对此心生不满。

Global condemnation over Ben-Gvir actions as police minister On Israel’s crowded right, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the governing coalition’s other main far-right figure, has faced wobbles for vacillating over an exemption from military service for religious students, resented by many nationalists.

但本-格维尔占据了最极右翼的阵营,其支持者的热情并未受到类似威胁。在竞选途中,他以犹太人的自尊为言辞,并誓言要更多地征服他所称《圣经》中许诺的土地。

But Ben-Gvir, staking out the furthest right-wing turf of all, has seen no similar threat to his backers’ enthusiasm. On the campaign trail, he speaks in terms of Jewish pride, and vows more conquest of land he says was promised in the Bible.

本-格维尔10月在特拉维夫的一场市民大会上对欢呼的支持者说:“我们在流亡两千年后回到了家园,我们需要感到自豪。我们必须感到自豪并征服加沙,因为这一切都是我们的。”拒绝就本文置评的本-格维尔,早在内塔尼亚胡将其纳入政府之前,就以强硬极端分子闻名。

“We have returned home after two thousand years of exile and we need to be proud,” Ben-Gvir said to cheers from supporters at a town hall in Tel Aviv in October. “We have to be proud and conquer Gaza, because it’s all ours.”Ben-Gvir, who declined to comment for this story, was known as a hardline extremist long before Netanyahu brought him into government.

他于2007年在以色列因煽动种族仇恨和支持被禁恐怖组织而被定罪,罪名是举起一块标语牌,支持被刺杀的拉比梅尔·卡哈内,后者曾因策划和实施暴力袭击而在以色列和美国双双入狱。

He was convicted in Israel in 2007 of racist incitement and support for a banned terrorist group, for holding up a sign backing Meir Kahane, a slain rabbi jailed in both Israel and the United States for plotting and carrying out violent attacks.

5月14日,以色列国家安全大臣伊塔马尔·本-格维尔在耶路撒冷老城参加年度耶路撒冷日游行。照片:路透社Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir takes part in the annual Jerusalem Day march in the Old City of Jerusalem, on May 14. PHOTO: REUTERS

多年来,本-格维尔以在自己家中展示犹太枪手巴鲁克·戈尔茨坦的照片而闻名,戈尔茨坦曾在1994年对希伯伦一座清真寺的袭击中杀害了29名巴勒斯坦礼拜者。他表示将在2020年取下这幅肖像,他称此举是为了剥夺一个右翼竞争对手将他的追随者排挤出其阵营的借口。

For years Ben-Gvir was known for displaying a photo in his house of Baruch Goldstein, a Jewish gunman who killed 29 Palestinian worshippers in an attack on a Hebron mosque in 1994. He said he would take the portrait down in 2020, in what he called a gesture to deprive a rival right-wing figure of an excuse to exclude his followers from his bloc.

自从在内塔尼亚胡手下掌管监狱以来,他一直吹嘘对巴勒斯坦人实施了更严厉的条件,将食物削减到最低限度。此后,许多囚犯获释时骨瘦如柴。

Since taking charge of prisons under Netanyahu, he has boasted of tougher conditions for Palestinians, cutting food to the barest minimum. Many prisoners have since emerged emaciated.

在发布了一段自己嘲笑被扣押的加沙船队活动人士的视频后,他也招致了谴责。这些活动人士在国际水域被拦截后,被强迫跪下且双手被绑。

He also drew condemnation after he released a video of himself mocking detained Gaza flotilla activists, forced to kneel with their hands bound following their interception in international waters.

英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰和挪威于2025年将他及斯莫特里奇列入制裁名单,因他们煽动约旦河西岸的暴力活动。欧盟一直在讨论类似的举措,尽管尚未达成共识。

Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway added him and Smotrich to their sanctions lists in 2025 for inciting violence in the West Bank. The EU has debated a similar move although it has yet to reach consensus.

对于支持者而言,外国的谴责是一种荣誉的象征。本-格维尔的顾问兼定居者发言人伊沙伊·弗莱舍在市政厅会议上表示,“犹太力量”党并不在意以色列在西方的形象。

The foreign condemnation is a badge of honour for supporters. Jewish Power is unconcerned about Israel’s image in the West, Yishai Fleisher, a Ben-Gvir adviser and settler spokesperson, said at the town hall.

“我们不如先让我们的地区尊重我们、接受我们,然后世界其他地方就会明白:以色列将长久存在下去。”路透社

“We might as well first have our region respect us and accept us, and then the rest of the world will understand: Israel is here to stay.”REUTERS

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