特朗普对本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的“全力背书”并未提振其连任希望。以色列第12频道的一项民调显示，利库德集团预计获得21个席位，落后于加迪·艾森科特领导的“直率党”预计的24个席位。
Trump’s “total endorsement” of Benjamin Netanyahu has not lifted his re-election hopes. A Channel 12 poll found Likud on 21 seats, behind Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar on 24.
大多数选民表示特朗普不会影响他们的选择。64%的受访者称不会改变决定，17%表示这让他们更不可能支持内塔尼亚胡，仅12%认为这有助于利库德集团。
Most voters said Trump would not affect them. 64% said no change, while 17% said it made them less likely to back Netanyahu.
在直接对决民调中，艾森科特和纳夫塔利·贝内特均领先于内塔尼亚胡。由于难以出现多数党，组阁谈判可能持续数周或数月，特朗普的影响力似乎正在消退。
Only 12% said it helped Likud. Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett lead Netanyahu in head-to-head polls. With no majority likely, coalition talks may take weeks or months, and Trump’s influence appears to be fading.
AI生成 耶路撒冷——以色列主要收视率电视台的一项民调发现，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普异常明确的背书，非但没有提振以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的连任竞选，反而可能造成了损害。
AI generated JERUSALEM – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election bid has received no boost from – and may have even been damaged by – US President Donald Trump’s unusually explicit endorsement, a poll by the country’s top-rated TV station found.
第12频道于10月19日称，针对10月27日大选的预测保持不变，引用当天早些时候的一项调查显示，内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团在议会120个席位中预计获得21席，而主要挑战者加迪·艾森科特领导的“直率党”预计获得24席。
Projections for the Oct 27 vote are unchanged, Channel 12 said on Oct 19, citing a survey from earlier in the day that gave Netanyahu’s Likud party 21 of Parliament’s 120 seats, with 24 going to Yashar, lead by main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot.
该民调是在特朗普于10月18日称内塔尼亚胡“强壮、勇敢、睿智”，并给予以色列任职时间最长的领导人“全力背书”之后进行的。
The poll was carried out after Trump on Oct 18 called Netanyahu “strong, brave, and brilliant” and gave his “total endorsement” to Israel’s longest-standing leader.
虽然特朗普在“真相社交”发帖的影响可能需要更长时间才能在民调中显现，但第12频道的调查暗示，这位美国领导人在以色列人中的受欢迎程度正在下降，且许多人可能已经决定投票给谁。
While the impact of Trump’s Truth Media post may take longer to show up in polling, the Channel 12 survey hints at the US leader’s waning popularity among Israelis and the likelihood that many of them have already made up their minds on who to vote for.
在受访者中，64%表示这不会影响他们的决定，17%表示这让他们更不可能支持内塔尼亚胡。约12%表示特朗普的声明会强化他们投票给利库德集团的决定。
Of the respondents, 64% said it would not influence their decision and 17% said it made them less likely to back Netanyahu. Some 12% said Trump’s announcement would reinforce their decision to vote for Likud.
当被问及谁更适合担任下一任总理时，45%的受访者选择艾森科特，33%选择内塔尼亚胡，17%表示两者都不选或未决定。
Asked who’s better suited for the next premiership, 45% of respondents said Eisenkot against 33% for Netanyahu, with 17% saying neither or that they were undecided.
另一位挑战者、前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特在与内塔尼亚胡的对决中，获得39%支持率，内塔尼亚胡获得34%。
Another challenger, Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, had 39% backing for top office when pitted against Netanyahu, who got 34%.
根据 Polymarket 的交易数据，艾森科特成为以色列下一任总理的概率约为 50%，而内塔尼亚胡领导下一届政府的概率为 29%。
According to trading on Polymarket, Eisenkot has a roughly 50% chance of becoming Israel’s next prime minister, while the chances of Netanyahu leading the next government stand at 29%.
由于没有单一政党有望自行赢得多数席位，可能需要数周甚至数月，才有候选人能够组建执政联盟。
With no single party likely to win a majority on its own, it could be weeks or months before any candidate is able to form a governing coalition.
以色列人长期以来对特朗普心存感激，因为他在 2025 年以色列与伊朗的 12 天战争，以及始于 2 月的持续冲突中，与内塔尼亚胡保持合作伙伴关系。
Trump has long been appreciated by Israelis for his partnership with Netanyahu in 2025’s 12-day war against Iran, as well as the ongoing conflict that began in February.
然而，当特朗普于 6 月签署一项旨在结束与德黑兰敌对行动的临时协议时，以色列人对这位美国总统的信心下降了。
Yet Israelis’ confidence in the US president sagged when he signed an interim agreement in June aimed at ending hostilities with Tehran.
以色列人——以及美国的许多共和党人——表示，这份所谓的谅解备忘录向伊朗做出了过多让步。
Israelis – as well as many Republicans in the US – said the so-called memorandum of understanding made too many concessions to Iran.
“显然，公众可能仍需要更多时间来消化特朗普的背书，”第 12 频道（也称为 N12）政治记者达芙娜·利尔说。
“Obviously, the public may still need more time to process Trump’s endorsement,” said Daphna Liel, political correspondent for Channel 12, which is also known as N12.
“至少目前来看，特朗普的背书并未帮助内塔尼亚胡，反而似乎使他的处境恶化了。”第 12 频道委托的这项民调采用了 507 名受访者的代表性样本，误差范围为 4.4%。
“For the time being, at least, Trump’s endorsement hasn’t helped Netanyahu, and appears to have actually worsened his situation.”The poll commissioned by Channel 12 had a representative sample of 507 respondents and a 4.4% margin of error.
特朗普对外国领导人的背书打破了白宫在国外选举中传统的保留态度。此类背书的成效参差不齐。
Trump’s endorsements of foreign leaders part with the traditional White House reticence regarding elections abroad. Their record for efficacy has been patchy.
尽管特朗普公开支持匈牙利的欧尔班，但后者在 2026 年失去了权力。内塔尼亚胡指责历任美国总统默许与他的挑战者合作。
Hungary’s Viktor Orban lost power in 2026 despite being openly backed by Trump. Netanyahu has accused previous US presidents of tacitly working with his challengers.
他在本周声称，在他 1996 年首次当选后，时任总统克林顿曾说：“恭喜，比比。你打败了我们。我们想尽一切办法要搞垮你，可你还是赢了我们。”2023 年 10 月 7 日哈马斯的突袭冲击损害了内塔尼亚胡的公信力，他随后大肆宣扬以色列随即发动的多线进攻所取得的战果，试图挽回国内支持。
After his first election victory in 1996, Netanyahu claimed this week that then President Bill Clinton said: “Congratulations, Bibi. You beat us. We tried everything to bring you down, and you beat us.”The shock Hamas invasion of Oct 7, 2023 hurt Netanyahu’s credibility, and he’s played up the gains of Israel’s ensuing multi-front offensives to try to claw back domestic support.
他认为自己在特朗普2029年卸任前最有条件与其合作，并警告称，在此之后，以色列可能面对一位不那么友好的白宫主人。
He argues he’s best-placed to collaborate with Trump before he steps down in 2029 and has warned that Israel may face a less-friendly leader in the White House after that.
自加沙战争爆发以来，以色列政府在美国民众、尤其是民主党选民中的声望大幅下滑，这场战争是由哈马斯袭击引发的。2026年对伊朗的轰炸行动及由此导致的燃油价格飙升，也给其声望造成了打击。
The Israeli government’s standing among Americans, especially Democrats, has dived since the start of the war in Gaza, which was triggered by the Hamas attack. I t’s also taken a hit because of 2026’s bombing campaign against Iran and the resulting surge in fuel prices.
特朗普的副总统J.D. 万斯近几个月来对以色列持批评态度，他在10月19日接受记者马克·哈尔佩林采访时，拒绝为内塔尼亚胡背书。
J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice-president, who has been critical of Israel in recent months, declined to back Netanyahu in an interview with journalist Mark Halperin on Oct 19.
“我不是反对背书他，”万斯说，“我不是支持背书他。我不会卷入以色列大选。” 彭博社
“I’m not anti-endorsing him,” Vance said. “I’m not pro-endorsing him. I’m not getting involved in Israeli elections.”BLOOMBERG