在2024年帮助动员年轻男性支持唐纳德·特朗普的“男性圈”明星，正在失去这一受众的青睐。
manosphere stars who helped mobilize young men for Donald Trump in 2024 are losing their shine with that very audience.
重要性：特朗普和共和党乘着一股文化影响力的浪潮触达年轻男性选民。如今，随着2026年中期选举临近，总统及其部分最具影响力的在线盟友显示出正在失去对这一受众掌控力的迹象。
Why it matters: Trump and Republicans rode a wave of cultural cachet to reach young male voters. Now, the president and some of his most influential online allies are showing signs of losing their grip on that audience ahead of the 2026 midterms
新闻驱动因素：据《Puck News》报道，民主党项目“与美国男性对话”发布的新民调显示，特朗普2024年竞选期间一些最知名的网红在年轻男性选民中已失去光彩：
- 乔·罗根在年轻男性中的好感度下降了11个百分点，埃隆·马斯克的人气下降了14个百分点，塔克·卡尔森下降了12个百分点。
Driving the news: New polling from the Democratic project Speaking With American Men suggests some of the most prominent influencers during Trump's 2024 campaign have lost their luster with young male voters, per Puck News • Joe Rogan's favorable rating among young men dropped from 11 points, while Elon Musk's popularity dropped 14 points and Tucker Carlson lost 12 points.
- 因涉嫌性贩运和强奸罪被捕的安德鲁·泰特，“净支持率为负30”，据《Puck》报道。
• Andrew Tate, who was arrested on sex trafficking and rape charges, had "a -30 net approval rating," per Puck.
深层背景：《Puck》报道，经济压力和伊朗战争已成为年轻男性在中期选举前的主要关切。
Between the lines: Economic pressures and the Iran war have become major concerns for young men heading into the midterms, Puck reported.
- 这些议题在特朗普与上届竞选中助力他的那些有影响力的声音之间制造了张力。
• Those issues have caused tension between Trump and the influential voices who bolstered his last campaign. State of play:
现状：年轻男性正在背弃政客、播客主和网红，其中许多人可能影响了近期的政治结果。他们变得更加怀疑，并转身离开政客，尤其是特朗普。
Young men are turning on politicians, podcasters and influencers, many of whom may have influenced recent political outcomes. They're becoming more skeptical and turning their backs on politicians, especially Trump.
- Cygnal发布的“2026年美国年轻男性调查”同样发现，在18至30岁的美国男性中，特朗普、万斯和共和党均持负面看法。
• The 2026 Young American Men Survey from Cygnal similarly found that among 18- to 30-year-old American men, Trump, Vance and the Republican Party all were viewed unfavorably.
- 特朗普在年轻选民中的支持率大幅下跌。马凯特法学院全国民调显示，特朗普的支持率从2025年1月的40%跌至2026年4月的19%，随后在6月反弹至28%。此后该法学院未再就该问题进行民调。
• Trump's numbers among young voters dropped precipitously. Marquette Law School national polling shows that Trump's approval dropped from 40% in January 2025 to 19% in April 2026, before rebounding to 28% in June. The law school hasn't polled on the question since then.
但：年轻男性对民主党也缺乏热情。据 Puck 报道，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马、参议员伯尼·桑德斯（无党派-佛蒙特州）和纽约市市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼是唯一支持率出现上升的民主党人。
Yes, but: Young men aren't especially enthusiastic about Democrats, either. • Former President Barack Obama, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani were the only Democrats showing upticks in favorability ratings, per Puck. Context:
背景：几位知名“男性圈层”人士在特朗普第二任期内对其提出批评，尤其是在伊朗战争和爱泼斯坦档案公布问题上。
Several prominent manosphere personalities have been critical of Trump in his second term, particularly on the Iran war and the Epstein files release.
- 罗根和许多“让美国再次伟大”影响者一样，批评了这场战争以及特朗普政府对爱泼斯坦档案的处理。
• Rogan, like many MAGA influencers, has criticized the war and the Trump administration's handling of the Epstein files.
- 塔克·卡尔森因多个问题指责特朗普，包括他与以色列结伙发动战争。
• Tucker Carlson has chastised Trump over many issues, including his partnership with Israel in going to war.
- 甚至副总统万斯也承认，白宫在爱泼斯坦档案的沟通上“搞砸了”。
• Vice President Vance has even admitted the White House "screwed up" on its communications about the Epstein files.
现实核查：研究人员质疑播客主和网络名人在 2024 年究竟有多大影响力。
Reality check: Researchers question how influential podcasters and personalities actually were in 2024.
- 纽约大学社交媒体、人工智能与政治中心 9 月发布的一份工作论文发现，接触播客并不一定导致特朗普在年轻男性中的支持率上升。
• A September working paper from the NYU Center for Social Media, AI and Politics found that podcast exposure did not necessarily cause Trump's gains among young men.
- 研究人员在回顾 2024 年的 36,659 期播客节目以及两个调查数据集后发现，播客仅能解释青年性别差距扩大的一小部分。
• Researchers, who reviewed 36,659 podcast episodes from 2024 alongside two survey datasets, found podcasts explained only a small portion of the widening youth gender gap.
另一面：影响者在年轻选民中仍拥有巨大触达范围。
The other side: Influencers still have enormous reach among young voters.
- Morning Consult 于 10 月 16 日发布的一项调查显示，近三分之二的 Z 世代成年人表示他们从创作者那里获取新闻，而 62% 信任创作者的推荐。
• A survey from Morning Consult published on Oct. 16 found that nearly two-thirds of Gen Z adults say they get news from creators, while 62% trust creator recommendations.
- 《商业内幕》报道称，四分之一的美国成年人认为影响者内容影响了他们的投票决定。
• Business Insider reports that one in four U.S. adults feel influencer content has affected their voting decisions.
- 马凯特大学的另一项民调发现，6 月份通过播客获取政治新闻的成年人中，有 54% 认可特朗普的工作表现，而总体成年人中这一比例为 38%。
• Separate Marquette polling found that 54% of adults who consumed podcasts for political news approved of Trump's job performance in June, compared with 38% of adults overall.
核心结论：“男性圈层”最大牌的名人仍有影响力，但国家发展的方向并没有帮助他们——或特朗普——在年轻男性中赢得支持。
The bottom line: The manosphere's biggest personalities still have sway, but the direction of the country isn't helping them — or Trump — with young men.