在2024年的总统竞选期间，小唐纳德·特朗普对父亲的对外政策有着一个简单的愿景：如果父亲当选总统，他会让美国避免卷入另一场中东战争。
Trump Jr. had a simple vision for his father’s foreign policy during the 2024 presidential campaign: If elected, Donald Trump was going to keep America out of another war in the Middle East.
“还记得当初人们说特朗普会让我们与伊朗爆发全面战争吗？”那年4月，当伊朗向以色列发射大量导弹和无人机时，他在X平台上写道，“在这样的时刻，我们应该意识到拥有特朗普、他的领导力以及他的决心是多么幸运。”然而两年半后，特朗普却将美国卷入了一场与伊朗的全面战争——小唐纳德对此感到非常不满。
“Remember when they said Trump would get us into a full-blown war with Iran?” he wrote on X that April, as Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones toward Israel. “Times like these should make us all realize how lucky we were to have Trump, his strength and his resolve.”Two and a half years later, the president has enmeshed the United States in a full-blown war with Iran—and Trump Jr. isn’t happy about it.
两位曾与他直接讨论过这一冲突的人告诉我们，小唐纳德在私下场合多次表达了对这场战争的反对意见。这些人表示，这位总统的儿子从战争一开始就反对这场战争，并将自己的立场明确告诉了父亲。他们还提到，小唐纳德长期以来一直对外国干涉持怀疑态度，认为美国不应再次卷入中东战争。此外，小唐纳德与已故的保守派活动家查理·柯克关系尤为密切；查理·柯克曾与特朗普政府决裂，以反对伊朗战争。
Trump Jr. has repeatedly voiced his opposition to the ongoing Iran war in private conversations, two people who have spoken directly with him about the conflict told us. The president’s son, these people said, opposed the war from its outset and made his opposition known to his father. He has long been skeptical of foreign intervention, these people told us, and believed the U.S. should not enter another Middle East war. Trump Jr. was also especially close to Charlie Kirk, the late conservative activist, who had broken with the Trump administration to oppose the war in Iran.
“唐一直对这一问题的看法保持沉默，因为他绝不会在公开场合与父亲发生争执；不过，任何了解唐的人应该都不会对他的个人立场感到惊讶，”一位与总统之子关系密切的人士告诉我们。特朗普儿子的发言人拒绝置评。白宫也没有回应关于特朗普儿子对这场战争态度的提问；一位官员在声明中表示：“伊朗已经遭受了重创，无论如何，伊朗的冲突很快就会结束。”
“Don has kept his views on the subject private, as he would never publicly break with his dad on an issue like this, but I can’t imagine anyone who knows Don would be surprised by his personal views on the subject,” a person close to the president’s son told us. A spokesman for Trump Jr. declined to comment. The White House didn’t respond to questions about Trump Jr.’s position on the war, and an official said in a statement, “Iran has been decimated, and one way or the other, the conflict in Iran will be over very soon.”
白宫决定与以色列结盟对抗德黑兰，这暴露了‘MAGA’阵营内部日益严重的分歧——这种分歧不仅涉及伊朗问题，也关乎‘美国优先’政策的真正含义。一方认为对外战争会损害美国的国内利益，另一方则主张必须更积极地利用美国的力量来对抗对手。多年来，在特朗普‘强权至上’的承诺下，这两个阵营一直共存；然而伊朗的局势使得这种平衡变得更加难以维持。
The White House’s decision to ally with Israel against Tehran has exposed a deepening rift within MAGA—not just over Iran, but also over what “America First” actually means. The divide pits nationalists who see foreign wars as a betrayal of domestic priorities against hawks who argue that American power must be wielded more aggressively against its adversaries. For years, the two camps coexisted under Trump’s promise of strength without the cost of another major war. Iran has made that balancing act harder to sustain.
‘唐是所有支持‘MAGA’理念的人中最坚决的反对者，’一位与他讨论过他对伊朗战争立场的人士告诉我们。”
“Don Jr. is the most MAGA of them all,” one of the people who spoke with him about his opposition to the Iran war told us.
即使在政府内部，一些与总统关系密切的顾问（包括副总统万斯）也在私下里表达了对这场战争的反对意见。在决定是否与以色列共同发动军事行动时，他们对此表示了异议。另一些官员（包括中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫和国务卿马可·卢比奥）则对以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡二月份提出的主张持怀疑态度——他们认为通过空袭来实现政权更迭的目标几乎是不现实的。
Even within the administration, some of the president’s closest advisers, including Vice President Vance, have voiced private opposition to the war as they deliberated whether to join Israel in its military campaign. Others, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, were skeptical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s initial pitch in February that a regime-change operation—particularly one conducted from the air—was remotely realistic.
政治上的代价正在不断上升。皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）上个月进行的一项调查显示，65%的美国人不赞成特朗普处理伊朗问题的方式，只有33%的人表示赞同。共和党人的支持率从3月份的69%下降到了63%。近一半的美国人认为这场冲突会持续超过一年——远远超出了政府最初预计的4到6周时间。
The political costs are mounting. A Pew Research Center survey conducted over the past month found that 65 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Iran operation, compared with 33 percent who approved. Republican approval fell from 69 percent in March to 63 percent. Nearly half of Americans expected the conflict to drag on for more than a year—far beyond the administration’s initial estimate of about four to six weeks.
经济方面的影响进一步加剧了政治上的动荡。由于能源市场受到干扰，汽油价格不断上涨，这进一步压缩了本就紧张的家庭预算。中期选举将考验共和党人是否能够为这场受到多数选民反对的战争辩护，同时还要让这些选民相信政府正在关注他们的经济问题。共和党候选人不得不为这场代价高昂且结局不确定的战争进行辩护；而这场战争实际上是总统在未经国会批准的情况下擅自发动的。
The economic consequences have sharpened the political fallout. Rising gas prices, driven by disruptions to the energy markets, are squeezing already strained household budgets. The midterm elections will test whether Republicans can defend a war that many voters oppose, while convincing those same voters that the administration is focused on their economic concerns. Republican candidates have been forced to defend a war with immense costs and an uncertain conclusion—one that the president initiated without congressional approval.
小特朗普（Trump Jr.）公开表达的反对意见再次表明，对这场战争的质疑并不仅限于总统的批评者或共和党的边缘人士。这也反映出共和党内部的一种普遍情绪：总统违背了他在竞选期间作出的关键承诺——即避免发动对外战争，并让普通美国人的生活变得更加负担得起。
Trump Jr.’s private opposition offers yet another reminder that doubts about the war are not confined to the president’s critics or the fringes of the Republican Party. It also points to a deeper sentiment within the president’s base that he has betrayed key campaign promises: to avoid foreign wars and to make life more affordable for the average American.