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印尼的网红策略令面临MSCI风险的投资者感到不安Indonesia’s Influencer Strategy Jars Investors Facing MSCI Risk

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在周日下午举行的一次会议上,印度尼西亚金融服务管理局的官员们与该国证券交易所的代表们齐聚一堂。令一些与会者感到意外的是,现场还有几位知名的Instagram博主也在场。

At a meeting on Sunday afternoon involving officials from Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority and the country’s stock exchange, some attendees were surprised to see several prominent Instagrammers present.

此次会议的目的是讨论MSCI公司突然宣布将印度尼西亚股票市场从其新兴市场指数中剔除的这一决定——这一举措将迫使追踪该指数的投资基金抛售印度尼西亚股票,可能导致数十亿美元的资本外流。

The gathering was to discuss MSCI Inc.’s shock threat to relegate the nation to standalone status, a move that would force funds tracking its emerging-market benchmarks to sell Indonesian stocks, triggering potentially billions of dollars in capital outflows.

据知情人士透露,会议不仅探讨了如何解决这一危机,还重点讨论了像Rivan Kurniawan这样的网红如何帮助传递正确的信息,并收集散户投资者的意见。

As well as what could be done to fix the situation, a significant portion of the conversation centered around how influencers like Rivan Kurniawan could help manage the message and provide feedback from retail investors, according to people familiar with the discussions.

雅加达中央商务区。摄影师:迪马斯·阿尔迪安/彭博社The central business district of Jakarta. Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg

一位与会者表示,金融服务管理局局长Friderica Widyasari Dewi非常重视在线网红在股市中的作用;她认为这些网红(即“关键意见领袖”KOLs)对投资者决策具有重要影响。

The chairwoman of the Financial Services Authority, Friderica Widyasari Dewi, is a believer in the power of online personalities in a stock market dominated by millions of retail investors, one of the people said, noting that they’re seen as KOLs, or key opinion leaders.

然而,在当局亟需恢复机构投资者信心的关键时刻,会议却花了大量时间讨论社交媒体策略,这让人感到有些不妥。这些人士要求匿名,并未透露会议的具体内容。

But to some, the amount of time spent on social media strategy at a juncture when authorities urgently need to restore the confidence of institutional money managers was jarring, the people said, asking not to be identified disclosing the substance of talks that were private.

金融服务管理局的代表未对记者的评论请求作出回应。Rivan Kurniawan曾撰写过几本关于投资的书籍,他表示自己是以投资者及持牌投资顾问的身份参加此次会议的。

Representatives from the Financial Services Authority didn’t respond to a request for comment. Kurniawan, who has written several books on investing, said he attended the meeting in his capacity as an investor and licensed investment adviser.

他说:“监管机构希望听取各方对MSCI相关公告的看法、意见以及建设性的批评。我向他们转达了散户投资者的不满、反馈以及市场反应,并亲自提出了一些建议。”与会的其他人士还包括前电视新闻主播Aline Wiratmaja、前政府财政官员转行成为金融教育专家的Andhika Diskartes,以及Leon Hartono。Wiratmaja和Diskartes拒绝发表评论,而Hartono则没有立即回应评论请求。

Regulators “wanted to hear perspectives, input, ideas and constructive criticism from different points of view regarding MSCI’s announcement,” he said. “I conveyed complaints, feedback and market reactions from retail investors. I also personally provided several suggestions.”Other influencers present included Aline Wiratmaja, a former TV news anchor, Andhika Diskartes, a former government finance official turned financial educator, and Leon Hartono. Wiratmaja and Diskartes declined to comment while Hartono didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Hartono是印度尼西亚最著名的金融领域影响者之一,他的YouTube频道拥有约83.3万名订阅者。他最近发布了一段视频,讨论了MSCI重新评级可能带来的风险,认为其影响不仅会波及股市,还会对印度尼西亚实体经济中的投资活动产生负面影响。

Hartono is one of Indonesia’s most prominent finance influencers with a YouTube channel of around 833,000 subscribers. He recently uploaded a video discussing the threat of an MSCI reclassification, arguing that the consequences could extend beyond the stock market and affect investment in Indonesia’s real economy.

Leon Hartono 讨论 MSCI 重新分类威胁的视频截图。A screenshot of a video of Leon Hartono discussing the threat of an MSCI reclassification.

与会人士表示,在这个拥有超过1000万股票交易账户、且大部分民众通过社交媒体获取信息的国家里,与散户投资者进行沟通确实非常重要。然而,参加周日会议的几位专业投资者认为,监管机构和证券交易所在制定策略以避免评级下调方面缺乏足够的针对性。他们还认为,监管机构虽然将金融影响者视为连接印度尼西亚快速增长中的散户投资者群体的重要桥梁,但并不一定需要征求他们对投资者焦虑情绪的根源的看法。

While communicating to retail investors is important in a nation where more than 10 million people have stock trading accounts and much of the population gets information via social media, several professional investors at Sunday’s meeting left feeling less confident that regulators and the exchange have a sufficiently focused strategy to avert a downgrade to standalone status, the people said. There was also a feeling that regulators, who treat financial influencers as a two-way bridge to Indonesia’s fast-growing retail-investor base, shouldn’t necessarily be seeking their views on what’s driving anxiety among individual investors, the people said.

这种分歧凸显了印度尼西亚当局面临的挑战:他们需要向全球投资者证明,长期以来一直存在的关于股权透明度、市场操纵行为以及执法问题正在得到解决;同时,他们还需要让数百万散户投资者对这一市场保持信心——毕竟这个市场正以前所未有的速度吸引着新的投资者。

The divide underscores the challenge for Indonesian authorities — convincing global investors that longstanding concerns over ownership transparency, coordinated trading and enforcement are being addressed while keeping millions of retail investors confident in a market that has drawn them in at record pace.

“金融网红在股市中扮演着重要角色,”32岁的散户投资者约瑟夫·加贝图阿说,他住在西爪哇省万隆市。“监管机构无法解释清楚的部分,金融网红帮助散户投资者理解。”目前,金融服务管理局(OJK)认识到“金融网红可以成为他们与公众沟通的合作伙伴。”

“Financial influencers play a big part in the stock market,” Joseph Gabetua, a 32-year-old retail investor in Bandung in West Java, said. “Some parts that regulators can’t explain, financial influencers help retail investors understand.”Right now, the Financial Services Authority understands that “finfluencers can be their partner to communicate to the public.”

另一位散户投资者、26岁的费利西亚·库尔尼亚万来自东爪哇省泗水市,她说,鉴于印尼经济状况不佳,“人们相信通过投资可能有机会一夜暴富。”

Another retail investor, 26-year-old Felicia Kurniawan from Surabaya in East Java, said with the Indonesian economy not in great shape, “people believe through investing they might get the chance to get rich quick.”

“大多数新投资者活跃在社交媒体上,但其中许多人可能不懂如何正确投资。所以他们只跟着金融网红买卖,”她说。“但如果出现错误信息,也会很容易传播。”周二,股市从近四十年来最严重的暴跌中反弹。基准雅加达综合指数收复了约15%两日跌幅中的一部份,该跌幅为1989年以来最陡峭,也奠定了印尼作为全球表现最差股市的地位。

“Most of the new investors are active on social media, but a lot of them may not understand how to invest properly. So they just follow the financial influencers,” she said. “But if there is misinformation, it can easily spread as well.”On Tuesday, stocks rebounded from their worst rout in nearly four decades. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index clawed back some of a roughly 15% two-day plunge that was its steepest since 1989 and cemented the country’s position as the world’s worst-performing stock market.

周一晚间,在当天早些时候与明晟(MSCI)官员会谈后,印尼证券交易所首席执行官杰弗里·亨德里克表示,所有权高度集中的股票将从其基准股指中剔除,旨在打造“更可信、更具诚信的价格指数”。他还表示,除了交易所今年早些时候开始公布持有公司股份至少1%的投资者姓名外,交易所还将标明每位持股者是否与该公司有关联。

On Monday evening, following talks with MSCI officials earlier that day, Jeffrey Hendrik, chief executive of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, said stocks with concentrated ownership would be removed from its benchmark equities index in an effort to create a “more credible and integrity-driven price index.”He also said that alongside the bourse’s move earlier this year to publish the names of investors owning at least 1% of a company’s shares, the exchange will indicate whether each holder is affiliated with the company.

印尼现在有时间直到4月底——明晟咨询期结束之时——证明其做出的任何变革确实带来了持续改善,随后明晟将于6月30日前做出最终决定。

Indonesia now has until the end of April, when MSCI’s consultation closes, to demonstrate any changes it makes are indeed producing sustained improvements before a final decision from MSCI by June 30.

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