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伊朗威胁切断霍尔木兹互联网电缆Iran threatens to cut Hormuz internet cables

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英国夏令时间下午5点57分 伊朗威胁切断穿越霍尔木兹海峡的海底互联网电缆,以瘫痪全球银行系统。

5:57pm BST Iran has threatened to cut undersea internet cables that run beneath the Strait of Hormuz to choke the global banking system.

伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)发言人侯赛因·莫赫比少将将海底通信线路描述为“合法的新目标”。

Gen Hossein Mohebbi, spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), described the communication lines on the seabed as “legitimate new targets”.

切断电缆可能影响全球系统,扰乱金融市场、银行交易、医疗保健和消费互联网。

Severing the cables could affect global systems, disrupting financial markets, bank transactions, healthcare and the consumer internet.

莫赫比少将表示:“有七条大型电缆穿越霍尔木兹海峡,所有互联网和商业数据都通过它们传输。”

“Seven large cables pass beneath the Strait of Hormuz, and all internet and commercial data pass through them,” Gen Mohebbi said.

他补充道:“我们只是想让他们知道,新目标和新武器将被揭晓。”莫赫比少将称,伊朗与美国之间的战争现已进入第八个月,已进入一段平静期,随后可能进入“第三阶段”,届时伊朗将揭示“新的战争地理”、新目标和新武器。

He added: “We just want them to know that new targets and new weapons will be unveiled.”Gen Mohebbi said the war between Iran and the United States, now in its eighth month, had entered a lull before a possible “third phase” in which Iran would reveal a “new geography of war”, new targets and new weapons.

伊斯兰革命卫队发言人侯赛因·莫赫比少将,上月在德黑兰 唐纳德·特朗普威胁将在美国11月中期选举后重启对伊朗的打击。

Gen. Hossein Mohebbi, the IRGC’s spokesman, in Tehran last month Donald Trump has threatened to renew strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections in November.

伊斯兰革命卫队特别指出了一条从东南亚延伸至欧洲、全长15500英里的电缆——这一描述与亚非欧-1号海底光缆相符,该光缆在阿曼、阿拉伯联合酋长国和卡塔尔登陆。

The IRGC singled out one line running 15,500 miles from Southeast Asia to Europe – a description matching the Asia-Africa-Europe-1 cable, which lands in Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

一名伊朗官员在德黑兰对《每日电讯报》表示,在战争期间曾多次讨论切断该电缆。

An Iranian official told The Telegraph from Tehran that cutting the cable had been discussed several times during the war.

然而,德黑兰未下令发动攻击,以避免“向全世界宣战并树立新敌人”。该官员表示,如果特朗普升级事态,这仍将“保留为一个选项”。专家称,这一威胁在技术上可信,但被广泛误解。

However, Tehran had not ordered an attack to avoid “declaring war on the whole world and building new enemies”. The official said it would nonetheless remain “an option if Trump escalates”. Specialists say the threat is technically credible, if widely misunderstood.

伦敦国王学院战争与战略教授、大战略研究中心联合主任、海事专家阿莱西奥·帕塔拉诺教授表示,海底电缆铺设在最直接的路线上,且尽可能穿越浅水区,以便于触及和维修。

Undersea cables are laid along the most direct route and, wherever possible, through shallow water so they are easier to reach and repair, said Prof Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy at King’s College London, co-director of its Centre for Grand Strategy and a maritime specialist.

这种设计不可避免地将它们引入狭窄的咽喉要道,“甚至不足100米”,他对《每日电讯报》表示,这些正是世界各国船只被迫通过的相同瓶颈点。

That design inevitably funnels them through narrow chokepoints, “even under 100 metres”, he told The Telegraph, the same pinch points through which the world’s ships are forced to pass.

帕塔拉诺教授说,伊朗的威胁“不仅是可能的,而且很长一段时间以来一直是一种相当明确的可能性”。

“Not only is it possible, but it’s been a rather clear possibility for a long time,” Prof Patalano said of Iran’s threats.

他补充说,在这些地点,装备精良的潜水员“可以潜入海床,假设你确切知道电缆位置,然后切断或摧毁它们。”根据一种理论,潜水员在2022年的袭击中曾在“北溪”管道上安放爆炸装置,随后悄然离去。帕塔拉诺教授说:“这一切都不是闻所未闻的。”

At such points, he added, well-equipped divers “can go down to the seabed, presumably if you know where exactly the cables are, and cut them or destroy them.”According to one theory, divers placed explosive devices on the Nord Stream pipeline before slipping away in the 2022 attack. “None of this is unheard of,” Prof Patalano said.

最近,遥控和自主潜航器使这项任务变得更加容易,他补充说,国家以某种形式拥有这种能力“从20世纪50年代起”就已具备。

More recently, remotely controlled and autonomous submersibles have made the task easier still, a capability, he added, that states have possessed in some form “from the 1950s onwards”.

装备更精良的行为体“通过打击更深处的部分,会让任何人难以应对,仅定位修复电缆的能力就会增加它们离线的时间”。

A better-armed actor “makes it very, very much harder for anyone by hitting the deeper parts, whereby just positioning capabilities to repair the cables will increase the amount of time they’re offline”.

换句话说,袭击的深度和位置,而不仅仅是切断行为本身,决定了损害持续多久,而在浅水的霍尔木兹海峡,实施袭击的门槛很低。这些电缆是全球基础设施中最不显眼但最关键的组成部分之一。

In other words, the depth and location of an attack, not just the act of cutting, determine how long the damage lasts, and in the shallow Strait of Hormuz the barrier to entry is low. The cables are among the least visible but most critical pieces of global infrastructure.

根据国际电信联盟的数据,全球超过100万英里(约160万公里)的海底线路承载了超过99%的国际数据。

Around the world, more than a million miles of undersea lines carry more than 99 per cent of international data, according to the International Telecommunication Union.

帕塔拉诺教授表示,切断霍尔木兹海峡的所有七条线路将意味着“间歇性、有限的互联网”,金融交易变慢,以及伊朗境内数据流动中断。其他依赖快速且持续数据访问的经济体也可能受阻。

Cutting all seven Hormuz lines, Prof Patalano said, would mean “intermittent, limited internet”, slower financial transactions and disrupted movement of data inside Iran. Other economies that depend on fast and continuous access to data could be hampered.

巨大的数据中心、人工智能基础设施和云计算服务部署在该地区,这意味着对亚马逊云科技等主要全球服务商也会产生影响。

Huge data centres, artificial intelligence infrastructure and cloud computing services are hosted in the region, meaning impact on major global providers such as Amazon Web Services.

在欧洲、中东和亚洲之间开展交易的跨国公司也可能受阻,而由于积压和重新路由,普通通信也可能变慢。

Multinational corporations that carry out transactions between Europe, the Middle East and Asia could also be hampered, while general communications could slow as a result of the backlog and the re-routing.

“如今的英国国民医疗服务体系(NHS),或大多数医疗系统,都依赖可靠、持续的数据库和数据访问,”他说。“取决于数据库的位置,你可能会发现你自己的国家医疗基础设施面临风险。你的金融交易和金融经济也面临风险。”德黑兰的强硬派已敦促采取此类行动数月。

“The NHS nowadays, or most healthcare systems, run on reliable, continuous access to databases and data,” he said. “Depending on where the databases are, you might find that your own national healthcare infrastructure is at risk. Your financial transactions and your financial economy are at risk.”Hardliners in Tehran have urged such a move for months.

上周从阿曼穆桑达姆看到的霍尔木兹海峡船只 极端保守派的《凯汉报》辩称,伊朗既有权利也有能力切断这些线缆,以报复这场战争。

Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, last week The ultraconservative daily Kayhan newspaper argued Iran had both the right and the means to disrupt the lines in retaliation for the war.

“难道我们没有权利阻止这些线缆通过波斯湾深处和永恒的霍尔木兹海峡,以让这些卑鄙的病菌跪地求饶吗?”该报写道。

“Is it not our right to prevent the passage of these cables through the depths of the Persian Gulf and the eternal Strait of Hormuz in order to bring these vile germs to their knees?” the paper wrote.

关于外部援助的前景,帕塔拉诺教授表示,中国和俄罗斯的组件已存在于伊朗无人机及其他系统中,三方之间的“沟通渠道”已建立完善。

On the prospect of outside help, Prof Patalano said Chinese and Russian components were already present in Iranian drones and other systems, and that “lines of communication” among the three actors were well established.

他说,伊朗利用外国技术诀窍是“合理的”,“但不是最先进的,因为我认为如果你是俄罗斯人或中国人,没有兴趣与许多其他行为体分享最先进的技术”。

It was “plausible”, he said, that Iran could tap foreign know-how, “not the most advanced, because I don’t think there’s any interest, if you’re Russian or Chinese, in sharing the most advanced technologies with many other actors”.

他警告不要将这一威胁视为非此即彼。“这绝对是”一个严重危险,他说,“但我们需要以略微不同的方式来界定它。这不是一个开关。”

He cautioned against reading the threat as all-or-nothing. “It absolutely is” a serious danger, he said, “but we need to frame it in a slightly different way. This isn’t a switch.”

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