高盛集团表示，由于中东战争，过去一年全球石油航运成本激增约七倍，并可能维持高位。
Global shipping costs for oil have surged about sevenfold over the past year because of the war in the Middle East and they are likely to remain elevated, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
分析师包括尤利娅·泽斯特科娃·格里格斯比在报告中写道，运输原油的平均运费已飙升至每桶20美元以上，高于一年前的每桶3美元。涨幅中包括霍尔木兹海峡战争风险溢价7美元，以及燃油成本上升和船对船转运影响各4美元。
The average rate for hauling crude has surged above $20 a barrel, up from $3 a year ago, analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a note. The rise includes an extra $7 for the war-risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz, and $4 each for higher fuel costs and the impact of ship—to-ship transfers.
他们表示：“更长时期的较高运费对我们的布伦特原油预测构成一些上行风险，此外还有更激烈的航运袭击风险、石油基础设施受损风险，以及更顽固的地缘政治风险溢价。”目前，该行对布伦特原油的基准预测是年底跌至每桶90美元。
“Higher freight rates for longer pose some upside risk to our Brent forecast, along with the risks of more intense shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a stickier geopolitical risk premium,” they said. At present, the bank’s baseline forecast for Brent is a drop to $90 a barrel by year-end.
美伊战争颠覆了全球航运市场，此前波斯湾及周边海域发生了针对船只的袭击。冲突最初导致通过霍尔木兹海峡的运输量崩盘，尽管此后已有所恢复，船只在有争议的水道穿梭运输货物，转运至更大的油轮，再由后者运送至加工厂。
The US-Iran war upended shipping markets worldwide, following attacks on vessels in and around the Persian Gulf. The conflict initially prompted a collapse in the volumes being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, although they have since recovered, with vessels shuttling cargoes through the contested waterway for transfer onto larger tankers, which deliver to processors.
分析师称，高昂的原油运费可能会“降低炼厂对原油的总体需求，因为交付原油的实际价格上升了”。“炼厂也可能寻找地理位置更近的供应商，改变既定的贸易模式。”他们表示，目前“支撑原油运费在很大程度上持续下去的驱动因素，主要取决于中东冲突是否维持现状”。
The high crude freight rates may “reduce refiners’ overall demand for crude as the effective price of delivered oil rises,” the analysts said. “Refiners may also seek more closely located suppliers, changing established trading patterns.”For now, the drivers “supporting crude freight rates to persist largely as long as the Middle Eastern conflict remains in its current state,” they said.
分析师称，目前波斯湾和阿曼湾近六分之一的油轮每天都在进行船对船转运。
Nearly a sixth of the tankers currently in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman are tied up in ship-to-ship transfers each day, the analysts said.