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联合国:当前气候承诺远不足以实现升温限制在1.5摄氏度所需的减排量Current climate pledges fall far short of emissions cuts needed to return to 1.5C warming limit: UN

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联合国环境规划署(UNEP)周三警告称,按照各国当前的气候承诺,到2035年全球温室气体排放量仅能减少11%至15%,远低于到本世纪末帮助将升温幅度拉回1.5摄氏度(2.7华氏度)以下所需的45%减排量。

Current climate pledges would cut global greenhouse gas emissions by only 11%-15% by 2035, far short of the 45% reduction needed to help bring warming back below 1.5C (2.7F) by the end of the century, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warned Wednesday.

联合国环境规划署在《2026年排放差距报告》中表示,若要将峰值升温限制在约1.7至1.8摄氏度(3.1至3.2华氏度),并有可能在2100年前回落至1.5摄氏度(2.7华氏度)或以下,排放量必须在2025年的基础上,到2030年下降18%、到2035年下降45%、到2040年下降69%。

In its Emissions Gap Report 2026, UNEP said emissions must fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 from 2025 levels to limit peak warming to around 1.7C-1.8C (3.1F-3.2F) before potentially returning to 1.5C (2.7F) or below by 2100.

然而,全面落实现有各国气候承诺,到2030年也只能使排放量减少5%至8%,到2035年减少11%至15%。

However, fully implementing countries' existing climate pledges would cut emissions by only 5%-8% by 2030 and 11%-15% by 2035.

报告发现,现行气候政策可能导致本世纪全球升温2.8摄氏度(5华氏度),而全面履行所有国家气候承诺也只能将升温限制在2.6摄氏度(4.7华氏度)。

The report found that current climate policies could lead to 2.8C (5F) of global warming this century, while fulfilling all national climate commitments would limit warming to 2.6C (4.7F).

联合国环境规划署表示,即便在履行国家气候承诺的同时再实现额外的净零目标,升温幅度也只能限制在2.1摄氏度(3.8华氏度)。

Even meeting additional net-zero targets alongside national climate commitments would limit warming to only 2.1C (3.8F), according to UNEP.

联合国环境规划署执行主任英格·安德森在报告中表示:“升温超过1.5摄氏度的每一分每一毫、每多一年,都会加剧气候影响和风险,例如今年困扰许多国家的致命洪水、热浪和野火。”

"Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year," UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said in the report.

联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯强调,升温突破1.5摄氏度(2.7华氏度)的门槛并不意味着放弃扭转升温的努力。

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed that exceeding the 1.5C (2.7F) threshold does not mean abandoning efforts to reverse warming.

他说:“升温超标并不等于投降。我们仍然可以尽可能缩小并缩短超标幅度,并在本世纪末前将气温拉回1.5摄氏度以下。”

"Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century," he said.

报告还发现,要将升温拉回1.5摄氏度(2.7华氏度),本世纪需要从大气中移除并永久封存约3200亿吨二氧化碳,而这项任务面临重大的技术和经济挑战。

The report also found that returning to 1.5C (2.7F) would require removing and permanently storing approximately 320 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere this century, a task facing significant technological and economic challenges.

尽管发出了上述警告,联合国环境规划署指出,可再生能源的扩张和气候政策已使若干国家的排放量有所下降。

Despite the warnings, UNEP noted that renewable energy expansion and climate policies have already reduced emissions in several countries.

“现在,各国必须紧急采取政策,推动快速、深入和持续的减排,并将世界引向更稳定的climate和更稳定的经济体与社会。”安德斯表示。

"It is now up to nations to urgently put in place policies that spark fast, deep and sustained emissions reductions, and put the world on track for a more stable climate and more stable economies and societies," Andersen said.

该报告警告称,若不采取紧急行动,将峰值升温控制在1.7至1.8摄氏度(3.1至3.2华氏度)以下“将很快变得不可能。”

The report warned that without urgent action, keeping peak warming below 1.7-1.8C (3.1-3.2F) "will quickly become impossible."

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