UN Climate Report Deems 1.5C Warming Limit Breach Imminent and Unavoidable Ahead of COP31

联合国环境规划署（UNEP）于2026年10月21日（周三）发布的一份报告指出，未来几年全球升温幅度突破《巴黎协定》设定的1.5摄氏度阈值已不可避免。第31届联合国气候变化大会（COP31）将于下月在土耳其举行，在此前夕发布的这份年度《排放差距报告》重新调整了减排目标，将重点转向如何应对气温超标。报告指出，若要在2100年前将升温峰值控制在1.7至1.8摄氏度以内，全球温室气体排放量必须在2025年的基准上，到2030年减少18%，到2035年减少45%，到2040年减少69%，同时还须在2040年前逐步淘汰煤炭，并大规模推广碳去除技术。若维持现有政策不变，升温峰值可能高达2.8摄氏度，而美国退出《巴黎协定》使这一危机进一步加剧。

A United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report released on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, concluded that global temperatures will unavoidably exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree Celsius threshold in the coming years. Published ahead of next month's COP31 climate summit in Turkey, the annual Emissions Gap report redefines targets around managing temperature overshoot. Limiting peak warming to 1.7 to 1.8 C by 2100 requires greenhouse gas reductions of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 against 2025 levels, alongside phasing out coal by 2040 and scaling carbon removal technologies. Under existing policies, peak warming could reach 2.8 C, exacerbated by the United States withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.