在2024年大选中，年轻选民将支持率向特朗普总统和共和党方向转移了21个百分点，打破了外界预期，而他们给这个国家带来的惊喜远未结束。最新一批摇摆州民调显示，美国最年轻的选民正以创纪录的数量抛弃共和党，这表明特朗普所在的政党在Z世代选民中取得的历史性进展已遭严重挥霍。
The young voters who upended expectations by shifting 21 points toward President Trump and the Republicans in 2024 aren’t done surprising the country just yet. In a sign of just how badly Trump’s party has fumbled its historic gains with Gen Z, a new batch of swing state polls shows America’s youngest voters deserting the party in record numbers.
Z世代拥有5000万合格选民，目前以惊人的30个百分点优势支持民主党。这轻松超过了2020年拜登以25个百分点的优势赢得年轻选民的纪录，并逼近奥巴马2008年创下的34个百分点历史最高纪录。他们的政治重组可能在密歇根州等关键州份发挥决定性作用，那里民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与前众议院情报委员会主席、共和党人迈克·罗杰斯陷入胶着较量，也可能影响全国各地的摇摆选区。
Gen Z’s 50 million eligible voters now back Democrats by an eye-popping 30-point margin. That easily beats 2020, when Joe Biden won young voters by 25 points. It approaches Barack Obama’s record-setting 34-point margin in 2008. Their political realignment could prove decisive in states like Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed (D) is locked in a tight race with former House Intelligence Chair Mike Rogers (R), and in swing districts across the country.
共和党只能怪自己。尽管曾向年轻人承诺经济繁荣，但共和党的治理失当反而带来了疫情以来新毕业生面临的最严峻就业市场。
Republicans have no one to blame but themselves. Despite promising young people economic prosperity, Republican mismanagement has instead delivered the worst job market for new graduates since the pandemic.
特朗普的失信承诺助推Z世代成为全国最悲观的一代，这一群体对体制深感不信，甚至对民主制度本身持怀疑态度。他们目睹了共和党的执政表现，所见所闻足以让他们彻底倒戈。
Trump’s broken promises helped turn Gen Z into the nation’s most pessimistic generation, a cohort deeply distrustful of institutions and even skeptical about democracy itself. They’ve seen Republican governance, and what they’ve seen is more than enough to turn their stomachs.
年轻选民关心的许多议题与年长选民相同：他们担忧负担能力以及通胀的侵蚀性影响。比大多数选民更甚的是，他们对美国在中东的军事决策表达了深切忧虑。2024年，他们因拜登在加沙问题上的不作为而惩罚了他；今年，他们的焦点转向了特朗普对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的无条件支持，以及他在伊朗不断升级的战争。
Young voters care about many of the same issues as their older counterparts: they worry about affordability and the corrosive effect of inflation. More than most voters, they also express deep concerns about American military decisions in the Middle East. In 2024 they punished Biden for his inaction on Gaza; this year, they are focused on Trump’s unquestioning support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his spiraling war in Iran.
两党均无视了Z世代的警告：他们的选票不应被视为理所当然。如今轮到共和党为政治代价买单。2026年中期选举将涌现出美国政坛前所未有的年轻选民群体——他们更愿“货比三家”，对日渐式微的党派忠诚度不再执着，并坚信政府的本质是一个服务行业。
Both parties have ignored Gen Z’s warnings that their votes should not be taken for granted. Now it is Republicans’ turn to pay the political price. What emerges from the 2026 midterms will be a bloc of young voters unlike any other generation in American politics — more willing to shop around, less committed to the aging idea of party loyalty, and firm in their belief that government is, at its core, a service industry.
面对2020年和2024年政治失望的记忆犹新，年轻选民正抛弃定义老一代选民的长期党派忠诚，转而极度聚焦于议题政治。Z世代选民因那些提出清晰政纲并兑现承诺的候选人而动员起来——这也是纽约市市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼在本地乃至全国拥有持久人气的原因之一。
Faced with the fresh memories of political disappointments in 2020 and 2024, young voters are abandoning the long-term party loyalties that define older generations in favor of a hyper-focus on issue politics. Gen Z voters are mobilized by candidates who put forward clear platforms and then deliver on their promises — that’s one reason why New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has such enduring popularity both at home and across the nation.
Z世代或许最适合被描述为“观望派”一代。他们倾向于在候选人证明理解年轻人面临的问题之前保留选票，这种倾向强烈到甚至体现在摇摆州民调中。对于一代因民主党和共和党的肤浅承诺而受伤的选民而言，党派标签已不再具有往日的分量。
Gen Z might best be described as the “wait and see” generation. Their tendency to withhold their vote until a candidate has proven they understand the issues facing young people is so strong that it’s even showing up in swing-state polling. For a generation of voters burned by superficial promises from both Democrats and Republicans, party labels simply don’t carry the weight they used to.
马里斯特学院（Marist）于9月28日对俄亥俄州参议院竞选进行的民调显示，仅44%的Z世代和千禧一代选民对自己的投票意向“非常有信心”，而X世代为76%，婴儿潮一代为78%。当马里斯特学院于10月18日再次民调时，X世代的投票确定性上升了3个百分点，婴儿潮一代上升了7个百分点。最年轻的一代几乎纹丝不动，仅录得1个百分点的变化。可谓推销难上加难。
A Marist poll of Ohio’s Senate race, conducted on Sept. 28, found that only 44 percent of Gen Z and millennial voters were strongly confident in how they will vote, compared to 76 percent of Gen X and 78 percent of baby boomers. When Marist polled them again on Oct. 18, it found voter certainty increased 3 points among Gen X and 7 points among boomers. The youngest generation had barely shifted at all, recording just a 1-point change. Talk about a hard sell.
鉴于他们对政党政治的敌意，Z世代甚至千禧一代选民中自称政治独立人士的人数比任何其他年龄群体都多，这并不令人意外。许多人自称进步派或自由派，但对民主党多年的不作为感到失望。即便如此，自称与共和党保持一致的Z世代选民人数创下历史新低——民调显示，这种远离MAGA的历史性转变在未来两周内不太可能改变。
Given their hostility to party politics, it’s no surprise that more Gen Z and even millennial voters identify as political independents than any other age group. Many identify as progressive or liberal but feel let down by years of Democratic inaction. Even so, a record low number of Gen Z voters say they align with Republicans — and polls suggest that historic shift away from MAGA isn’t likely to change in the next two weeks.
共和党人违背了对年轻选民的承诺，在此过程中错失了建立右翼青年联盟的历史性机会。民主党现在拥有一个千载难逢的机会，与Z世代合作，推动国家一些长期拖延的政策变革。目前，年轻选民似乎准备给民主党一次机会。
Republicans broke their promises to young voters, and in the process blew a historic chance to build a right-leaning youth coalition. Democrats now have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to work together with Gen Z to achieve some of the nation’s long-delayed policy changes. For now, young voters appear ready to give Democrats a second chance.
如果民主党聪明，就不应重蹈将年轻选民的选票视为理所当然这一毁灭性错误的覆辙。
If they are smart, Democrats won’t repeat the devastating mistake of taking young peoples’ votes for granted.
马克斯·伯恩斯是资深民主党战略家，也是第三度战略公司的创始人。
Max Burns is a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies.