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好消息:美国最重要的选民讨厌特朗普Good News: America’s Most Important Voters Hate Trump

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唐纳德·特朗普与美国国旗照片插图Donald Trump, american flag photo illustration

坏消息是:他们也开始怀疑“美国梦”是否依然存在。美国最重要的选民群体不再相信我们的制度、我们的选举或我们的未来。与此相关的是,他们既无法忍受唐纳德·特朗普,也同样无法忍受两党的建制派领导层。

Bad news: They’re also beginning to doubt the “American dream” still exists. The most important group of voters in America no longer believes in our system, our elections, or our future. In a related development, they can’t stand Donald Trump or, for that matter, establishment leadership in either party.

根据定期在年轻选民中开展的最受尊重的调查——第53次哈佛青年民调对18至29岁人群的调查——他们的前景黯淡,而他们认为能拯救美国的方案,与主流政客的主张并不一致,反而与那些最令他们以及他们的企业赞助者感到恐惧的进步派声音相吻合。

According to the most respected survey regularly conducted among young voters, the 53rd Harvard Youth Poll of those 18-29, their outlook is bleak and their view of what will save America tracks not with mainstream pols but with the progressive voices that frighten them and their corporate sponsors the most.

顺便说一句,这不仅仅是年轻的民主党人。Z世代的独立人士以及越来越多的共和党人也持这种看法。

That’s not just young Democrats, by the way. Gen-Z Independents and a growing number of Republicans feel that way too.

我们为什么要在意?首先,年轻选民在近期的选举中发挥了决定性作用。而且他们似乎正在再次这样做。例如,提前投票的数据表明,得克萨斯州的投票率上升了,尤其是在黑人和西班牙裔以及黑人选民中,而推动这一变化的一大因素就是年轻人。

Why should we care? Well, first, young voters have played a decisive role in recent elections. And they seem to be doing so again. Early voting numbers suggest, for example, that in Texas, turnout is up, especially among Black and Hispanics and Black voters, and a big driver of the change is young people.

此外,他们优先关注的议题——比如打击腐败、公平地向亿万富翁征税、结束伊朗战争、恢复他们在经济上取得成功的机会——正是目前似乎在竞选活动中引起共鸣的议题,主导着众多民主党政治人物的言论,这些人在本次竞选的最后阶段正产生重大影响,比如前总统巴拉克·奥巴马周六在密歇根州的集会上,以及得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科、佐治亚州的乔恩·奥索夫和密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德等候选人。

Furthermore, their priority issues—like combating corruption, taxing billionaires fairly, ending the war in Iran, restoring their chance to succeed economically—are the ones that currently seem to be resonating on the campaign trail, dominating the remarks of a wide range of Democratic politicians making a big impact on the home stretch of this campaign, like former President Barack Obama during his Michigan rally on Saturday as well as candidates including James Talarico in Texas, Jon Ossoff in Georgia, and Abdul el-Sayed in Michigan.

也许更重要的是,到2028年——这场竞选在短短几天后就将拉开帷幕的总统选举——大多数有资格的美国选民将是在1990年之后出生的。这一群体的观点正是这份“青年民调”所追踪的内容。点击“”即表示您同意我们的使用条款和隐私政策。

Perhaps more importantly, by 2028, the presidential election for which the campaign begins in just a few days, the majority of eligible American voters will have been born since 1990. The views of that cohort are precisely what this “Youth Poll” tracks. By clicking “” you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

根据哈佛大学的这项研究,近三分之二的年轻选民表示,他们即将在中期选举中的投票是为了反对特朗普及其政策,仅有 14% 称是在表示支持。近 8 成年轻选民不认可特朗普对经济的处理方式。

According to the Harvard study, almost two-thirds of young voters describe their upcoming midterm vote as in opposition to Trump and his policies, and only 14 percent say they’re showing support. Almost 8 in 10 disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.

研究作者指出,在年轻选民最关心的问题中,“近十分之九的年轻选民(88%)认为腐败问题对他们的中期选举投票很重要,仅次于生活成本。56% 认为腐败问题极其重要。” 震惊的是,接受调查的 18 至 29 岁年轻人中,只有 9% 认为美国“总体上正朝着正确的方向前进”。近三分之二的人认为国家走上了错误的道路。

Among their top concerns, according to the authors of the study, “Nearly nine in ten young voters (88%) call corruption important to their midterm vote, second only to the cost of living. 56 percent call it extremely important.”Shockingly, only 9% of the 18 to 29-year-olds surveyed say the United States is “generally headed in the right direction.”Almost two-thirds say we are on the wrong track.

这种看法导致了研究中或许最令人不安的发现:在过去十年里,也就是这项研究进行的十次迭代中,首次有更多受访者觉得,等到他们到了父母现在的年纪时,他们的经济状况会比现在更糟。

This view translates into what is perhaps the most disturbing of the study’s findings: For the first time in this decade, the first time in ten iterations of the study, more of those surveyed felt that when they were their parents’ age they would be worse off financially than they are now.

接受调查者中,只有四分之一预见自己未来能在经济上超越父母。对整整一代人来说,美国梦基本上被视为一种幻觉,是他们父母或祖父母想象力的产物。

Only one in four of those surveyed foresees a future in which they will surpass their parents financially. For an entire generation, the American dream is essentially seen as a hallucination, a figment of their parents’ or grandparents’ imagination.

当被问及为何对经济前景如此悲观时,近十分之七的受访者“认为大企业的权力对他们的长期财务安全构成威胁,而 62% 持相同看法的是亿万富翁的财富和权力。” 这些观点分别为 81% 的受访民主党人、67% 的受访独立人士和 60% 的受访共和党人所持有。

When asked to cite the reasons they feel their economic futures are so bleak, nearly 7 in 10 “view the power of large corporations as a threat to their long-term financial security, while 62% say the same about the wealth and power of billionaires.”These views are held by 81% of Democrats polled, 67% of independents and 60% of Republicans.

他们眼中的主要经济威胁还包括特朗普的贸易战、失控的政府开支、特朗普执政下赤字的快速增长,以及他们担心人工智能很快会取代工作岗位。

Also among the top economic threats they see are Trump’s trade wars, out-of-control government spending, the rapid growth of the deficit under Trump, and their fear that AI will soon be replacing jobs.

这些发现转化为一个政治悖论:民主党在几乎每一个单一议题上都拥有年轻选民信任的巨大优势,但三分之二的受访者也对该党在国会的表现表示不满。

These findings translate into a political paradox: Democrats have a big edge in the trust of young voters on almost every single issue, but two-thirds of those polled also disapprove of the party’s performance in Congress.

综合这些结果来看,虽然即将到来的大选在趋势上可能对民主党有利(受访的民主党人和独立人士中,绝大多数反对特朗普及其支持者,他们计划投票的比例高于年轻共和党人),但你可以清楚地看到迫在眉睫的问题。

Take these results together and, while trends may be good regarding the upcoming election (more of the Democrats and independents surveyed, a substantial majority of whom oppose Trump and his supporters, plan to vote than do young Republicans), you can clearly see the looming problem.

一个将定义美国政治未来、并将在决定民主党命运方面发挥关键作用的群体,明显认同许多建制派民主党人曾抵制的进步派候选人的优先议程。与此同时,他们对现任民主党领导人应对特朗普时代挑战的方式感到不满。

A group that will define the future of American politics—and be especially critical in determining Democratic fortunes—clearly embraces the priorities of progressive candidates that many establishment Democrats have pushed back on. They are, at the same time, unhappy with how current Democratic leaders are dealing with the challenges of the Trump era.

美国未来的选民支持全民医保、财富税、堕胎权,以及终止美国对以色列的军事援助。换句话说,正如一些老派政客想让你相信的那样,这些并非美国民主社会主义者(DSA)的激进观点。它们是一个新兴新多数派的主流观点。抗拒或不反映这些观点的领导人,正将自己推向历史的垃圾堆。我想补充一句:这真是时候未到。

America’s voters of tomorrow support Medicare for all, a wealth tax, the right to abortion, and an end to U.S. military aid for Israel. In other words, those aren’t the radical views of the DSA as some old-school pols would have you believe. They are the prevailing views of an emerging new majority. Leaders who resist or do not reflect those views are consigning themselves to the dustbin of history. None too soon, I might add.

不过,该研究的最后一项发现,不仅应让两党脱离群众的政治领袖感到不寒而栗,也应让我们所有人感到不寒而栗。只有三分之一的年轻选民真正相信即将到来的选举将是“公平准确的”。这不仅是一个问题,因为它表明特朗普和共和党针对选举结果公信力的攻势已给国家造成严重创伤,更因为那些不相信自由公正选举的人表示,他们去投票的可能性显著降低。

A final finding of the study, however, should be chilling not just to out-of-touch political leaders from either party but to all of us. Only one-third of young voters actually believe our upcoming elections will be “fair and accurate.”This is not just a problem because it demonstrates how Trump and the GOP’s campaign against believing in our election outcomes has taken a grave toll on the country, but because those who do not believe in free and fair elections indicate they are significantly less like to vote.

毫无疑问,这是“让美国再次伟大”阵营的目标之一。几天之内我们就会看到,他们是否成功压制了真正关心美国未来的选民的投票,还是说正如提前投票所显示的可能正在发生的那样,美国正在崛起的下一代多数派抓住这次大选的机会,开始扭转婴儿潮一代和X世代造成的破坏,并着手按照他们的需求和价值观重塑美国政治。

Undoubtedly, this is one of MAGAworld’s objectives. Within days we will see whether they succeeded in suppressing the vote of those who truly care about America’s future or whether, as early voting indicates may be happening, Americans rising next generation majority seizes upon this election to begin undoing the damage done by Boomers and Gen Xers and to start remaking American politics consistent with their needs and values.

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