
2026年10月16日上午5:00美东时间 埃伦·摩尔(Elena Moore) 10月7日,总统特朗普在圣安东尼奥的一次竞选集会上发表讲话。特朗普在2024年赢得了大量年轻选民的支持,但其中一部分支持率似乎正在下降。
October 16, 2026 5:00 AM ET Elena Moore President Trump speaks at a campaign rally in San Antonio on Oct. 7. Trump made big inroads with young voters in 2024, but some of that support appears to be waning.
曼德尔·恩甘(Mandel Ngan)/法新社图片社通过盖蒂图片社 美国Z世代是总统特朗普在2024年获胜联盟的关键组成部分。近两年后——随着多个州的中期选举提前投票已经展开——这种青年支持率已有所消退。
Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images Gen Z Americans were a key part of President Trump's winning coalition in 2024. Nearly two years later — and with early voting underway in multiple states for the midterms — some of that youth support has faded.
这种情绪在上周举行的一个由八名Z世代特朗普选民组成的焦点小组中显露无遗,他们对政治现状表达了不同程度的不满和失望,其中一些人甚至直言后悔在2024年支持特朗普。
That sentiment was on display in a focus group, conducted last week, of eight Generation Z Trump voters, who reported varying degrees of unhappiness and disappointment over the state of politics, with some going as far as to say they regret supporting Trump in 2024.
这场对话由左翼民调机构“领航员研究”(Navigator Research)以虚拟方式主持。参与者年龄在20岁至29岁之间,分布在五个州:佛罗里达州、密西西比州、俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州——这些都是特朗普在上届选举中以两位数优势获胜的地方。其中两个州(得克萨斯州和俄罗黑州,注:原文如此)拥有可能对参议院控制权至关重要的竞争激烈的选举。
The conversation was conducted virtually by Navigator Research a left-leaning polling group. Participants ranged in age from 20 to 29 and spanned five states: Florida, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas and South Carolina — places Trump won by double digits in the last election. Two of those states, Texas Ohio are home to competitive races that could be key to control of the Senate For participants who now regret their vote for Trump, much of their frustration centers on what they see as a string of failed promises.
对于现在后悔投票给特朗普的参与者来说,他们的沮丧情绪很大程度上集中在他们所认为的一系列未能兑现的承诺上。当被要求给总统的工作表现打分时,多数参与者(8人中有6人)给他打了D或F,另有2人选择打C。
When asked to give the president's job performance a letter grade, a majority of participants, 6 out of 8, assigned him a grade of either D or F, while two selected C. "I just feel like nothing went correctly.
“我只是觉得什么都没走上正轨。我只是觉得一切都变糟了,”来自佛罗里达州的29岁黑人男子约翰说。(参与者同意参加焦点小组的前提是仅用他们的名字标识。)约翰自称是共和党人,自2016年以来一直投票给特朗普,他给总统打了F,并表示他现在计划今年秋天支持民主党候选人,很大程度上是因为他感受到了生活成本上升带来的压力。
I just feel like everything got worse," said John, a 29-year-old Black man from Florida. (Participants agreed to be part of the focus group on the condition that they be identified by only their first names.) John, who identifies as a Republican and has voted for Trump since 2016, gave the president an F and said he now plans to support Democratic candidates this fall, in large part because of the strain he has felt from rising costs. "I'm willing to give the other side a chance," he added.
“我愿意给另一边一次机会,”他补充道。“我不认为他们会做出彻底的改变。但目前我的处境实在太糟糕了。所以我觉得,即使他们做出了一两个小改变,可能也会让我受益。” 尽管该焦点小组并非全国代表性调查,但参与者分享的沮丧情绪与“领航员”8月份发布的民调结果相呼应。该民调发现,近三分之一的Z世代(30岁以下人群)后悔投票给特朗普,这一比例高于年长一代。
"I don't think they're going to make a total change. But things are just horrible right now for me. So I feel like even if they make one or two small changes, it will probably benefit me." Though the focus group is not a nationally representative survey, the frustrations shared by participants echoed Navigator polling released in August, which found that nearly a third of Gen Zers — those under age 30 — regret voting for Trump, higher than older generations do.
特朗普在年轻选民中不断上升的不受欢迎并非在真空中发生。在2024年转向右翼的其他关键群体(特别是无党派选民和拉丁裔选民)中,他也失去了阵地——在一个共和党正面临政治逆风的年份里,两年前扩大的这个联盟现在是否能以同样的实力出现,目前还不得而知。
Trump's rising unpopularity among young voters isn't in a vacuum. He has also lost ground with other key groups that shifted right in 2024, notably independents and Latino voters— and in a year when the Republican Party is facing political headwinds, it's unclear whether that expanded coalition from two years ago can show up at the same strength now.
转向民主党——还是不转向 尽管像佛罗里达州的约翰这样的一些选民确实感到有必要在这个选举周期因为特朗普而投票给民主党,但在焦点小组中参加的8人中有4人表示,他们今年仍计划支持共和党。三人表示将投票给民主党;一名参与者表示她仍在做决定。
Shifting toward Democrats — or not While some voters, like John in Florida, do feel compelled to vote blue this cycle in response to Trump, 4 of the 8 who took part in the focus group said they still planned to back Republicans this year. Three said they'd vote for Democrats; one participant said she was still deciding.
住在得克萨斯州的25岁黑人男子马修表示,他不后悔对总统的支持,并给他打了个C。
Matthew, a 25-year-old Black man living in Texas, said he doesn't regret his support for the president and gave him a C grade.
“我觉得他在关闭边境方面做得非常好,”他说。“我也很赞赏他为结束上一届政府下开始的一些冲突所做出的努力,除了从我的角度来看,伊朗冲突并没有取得最好的效果这一事实之外。”他计划在中期选举中投票,并辩称如果共和党人能够确保在众议院和参议院都获得更大的多数席位,特朗普将能够执行更多他的议程,尽管全国民调显示共和党更有可能失去席位。但热情则是另一个问题。
"I feel like he's done a really good job closing the border," he said. "I also do appreciate his efforts in trying to end some of the conflicts that began under the last administration, besides the fact that the Iran conflict hasn't really worked the best, from my perspective." He plans to vote in the midterm elections and argued that Trump will be able to carry out more of his agenda if Republicans can secure a larger majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, although national polls indicate that the GOP is more likely to lose seats. But enthusiasm is a different question.
总部位于南卡罗来纳州的20岁白人女性考特尼表示,她不后悔在2024年投票给特朗普,总体上也与共和党保持一致,但她确实承认,她对两大政党的信任度有所下降,特别是在外交政策上。
Courtney, a 20-year-old white woman based in South Carolina, said she doesn't regret her vote for Trump in 2024 and overall aligns with Republicans, but she did admit she has grown more distrustful of both major political parties, particularly on foreign policy.
“我真的觉得不管怎样我们都会陷入这种境地……如果我们没有把钱抽调到不属于我们的其他国家,教育、经济和其他一切都会好得多,”她指的是美国对以色列的援助以及与伊朗开战的决定。
"I just really do feel like we would be in this situation either way. … Education, the economy, everything else would be so much better if we weren't pumping money out into other countries that aren't ours," she said, referring to U.S. aid for Israel and the decision to go to war with Iran.
“我认为你投票给哪一方并不重要——这就是我投红色的原因,因为我更赞同这些政策——但归根结底,我们在中东的所作所为根本不取决于执政党,”她在焦点小组中说道。
"I don't think it matters what side you vote on — that's why I voted red, because I agree with those policies more — but at the end of the day, what we do in the Middle East is going to be not at all up to [the] party [in power]," she said during the focus group.
这种政治疏离感可能突显出,随着共和党和民主党都试图修复与这一代人的关系,双方在未来面临着越来越大的挑战。
That sense of political disaffection may underscore a growing challenge for both Republicans and Democrats moving forward as both try to repair ties with this generation.
“当我们看到人们后悔投票给特朗普、对共和党和共和党政策感到厌烦时,这并不一定意味着他们正直接转向民主党,”领航员的董事总经理梅利萨·图法尼安(Melissa Toufanian)说。
"As we see people regret their vote for Trump, sour on the Republican Party and Republican policies, that doesn't necessarily mean that they're swinging right over to Democrats," said Melissa Toufanian, the managing director at Navigator.
图法尼安指出领航员自己的民调发现,尽管共和党在经济问题上失去了信任,“但这并不是民主党获得这种信任的一对一替代。”
Toufanian points to Navigator's own polling which has found that even as the GOP has lost trust on economic issues, "it's not a one-for-one with Democrats gaining that trust."
“很多人正在转向这个中间地带,即‘我不信任任何一个政党’的类别,”她说。“我们看到人们对我们的政党和政治体制日益感到悲观,他们不强烈觉得任何一个政党真正能为他们兑现承诺。”
"A lot of people are moving to this middle, this category that 'I don't trust either party,'" she said. "We are seeing people who are becoming increasingly pessimistic about our political parties and our political system, and they're not feeling strongly that either party can really deliver for them."