土耳其与利比亚的海上边界协议对以色列而言是一个“非常令人担忧”的事态发展，耶路撒冷战略与安全研究所副所长、沙莱姆学院中东与伊斯兰研究讲师埃兰·勒曼上校（预备役）周三对《耶路撒冷邮报》表示。
Turkey and Libya's maritime boundary deal is a “very troubling” development for Israel, Colonel (res.) Eran Lerman, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at Shalem College, told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.
该协议由的黎波里的、国际公认的利比亚西部政府于2019年达成，周二获利比亚东部立法机构众议院批准，引来塞浦路斯、埃及、希腊和以色列的批评。
The deal, agreed upon by the Tripoli-based, internationally recognized western Libyan government in 2019, was approved by the eastern Libya's legislature, the House of Representatives (HoR), on Tuesday, drawing criticism from Cyprus, Egypt, Greece and Israel.
利比亚东部当局打破对安卡拉的抵制这一举措标志着地区阵营的重大转变，总部设在班加西的利比亚国民军司令哈夫塔尔打破了自2020年以来实施的对安卡拉的抵制。
Eastern Libyan authorities breaking boycott of AnkaraThe move marks a significant shift in regional alignments, with Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Benghazi-based Libyan National Army, breaking with the boycott of Ankara that had been in place since 2020.
勒曼表示，他不确定是什么促使众议院批准了这项拖延已久的协议，但他警告称，这可能威胁以色列开发水下基础设施连接的能力，并造成更严峻的海上安全挑战。
While Lerman said he was unsure what prompted HoR to approve the long-delayed agreement, he warned it could threaten Israel's ability to develop underwater infrastructure connections and create more serious maritime security challenges.
近年来，以色列一直在推进一个雄心勃勃的项目，旨在将其电网与塞浦路斯和希腊连接，进而接入欧洲大陆。安卡拉反对该项目，对希腊依据国际法主张的海上边界提出异议。
Israel has been working in recent years on an ambitious project to connect its electricity grid to Cyprus and Greece, and from there to mainland Europe. Ankara has opposed the project, disputing the maritime boundaries claimed by Greece under international law.
土耳其对北塞浦路斯实施军事占领，不是《大陆架公约》或《联合国海洋法公约》的签署国，并试图将希腊岛屿宣称为其领土的延伸。
勒曼说：“我不确定土耳其人是否真的会介入干扰电力连接器的铺设。”
Turkey, which runs a military occupation of Northern Cyprus, is not a signatory to the Convention on the Continental Shelf or the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and has sought to claim Greek islands as an extension of its territory.“I'm not sure the Turks will actually intervene to disrupt the laying of an electricity connector. It is not entirely clear whether they have the authority to do so in their exclusive economic zone, but this is going to be a source of growing tension in the coming years,” Lerman predicted.
“他们在其专属经济区内是否完全有权这样做尚不清楚，但这将在未来几年成为日益加剧的紧张局势的根源，”勒曼预测道。埃及和希腊此前曾反对土耳其与利比亚的结盟，任何既有结盟的破裂都将给安卡拉提供机会，进一步追求其新奥斯曼野心，他继续说道。埃及转向麦加防御条约可能使其更接近土耳其，从而增强一个已经明确表示渴望恢复其曾经拥有的帝国力量的国家的实力。
“以色列、埃及、塞浦路斯和希腊的共同利益在很大程度上是针对土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的新奥斯曼野心而发挥作用的，这创造了一个重要的共同点。在过去十年里，我们看到了希腊、塞浦路斯和以色列的平行三方峰会，以及希腊、塞浦路斯和埃及的平行三方峰会。我们还看到了在塞浦路斯莱夫科西亚设立秘书处，以管理这些平行的三方关系，”勒曼说。
Egypt and Greece had previously opposed the Turkish-Libyan alignment, and any fracturing of the established alignment would give Ankara an opportunity to further pursue its neo-Ottoman aspirations, he continued. Egypt's orientation toward the Mecca defense pact could bring it closer to Turkey, strengthening a country that has already made clear its aspirations to regain the imperial power it once wielded.“The common interests of Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece were very much at play against the neo-Ottoman ambitions of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and that created an important commonality. Over the past decade, we saw parallel tripartite summits of Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, and of Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt. We also saw the creation of secretariats in Lefkosia, Cyprus, to manage these parallel tripartite relations,” Lerman said.“We were looking at this as essentially the emergence of an alignment of interests and forces in the Eastern Mediterranean. If Egypt is sliding out of this alignment, despite the recent summit that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi held with the leaders of Greece and Cyprus at El Alamein, and is increasingly moving toward accepting the Turkish position, that would be highly problematic from an Israeli perspective,” he added.
“我们将此视为东地中海地区利益和力量结盟的本质性萌芽。如果埃及尽管最近在阿拉曼举行了埃及总统阿卜杜勒-法塔赫·塞西与希腊和塞浦路斯领导人的峰会，却正在退出这一结盟，并日益转向接受土耳其的立场，那将从以色列的角度来看是极具问题性的，”他补充道。以色列的海上安全面临风险还有以色列海上安全的问题。以色列绝大多数的国际贸易是通过海路进行的，海法、阿什杜德和埃拉特港口处理了该国98%的进出口量。
Israel's maritime security comes under riskThere is also the issue of Israel's maritime security. The vast majority of Israel's international trade is conducted by sea, and the ports of Haifa, Ashdod and Eilat handle 98% of the country's import and export volume.
勒曼强调，胡塞武装已经对埃拉特港构成威胁，“我们最不需要的就是在我们的西部海上通道也出现问题。”土耳其在地中海保持着重要的海军存在，并日益依据“蓝色祖国”学说主张其权利，该学说挑战了根据《联合国海洋法公约》主张的海上边界。该学说于2006年提出，旨在主张土耳其对横跨黑海、爱琴海和东地中海、面积达46.2万平方公里的海域享有主权权利和管辖权。
The Houthis already pose a threat to the Eilat port, Lerman highlighted, and “the last thing we need is a problem also with our Western maritime approaches.”Turkey maintains a significant naval presence in the Mediterranean and has increasingly asserted its claims under the Mavi Vatan (Blue Homeland) doctrine, which challenges maritime boundaries claimed under UNCLOS. Introduced in 2006, the doctrine seeks to assert Turkish sovereign rights and jurisdiction over a 462,000-square-kilometer maritime area spanning the Black Sea, Aegean Sea, and eastern Mediterranean.“Of course, they have the naval capacity, the military capacity to back this [strategy] up. Of course, Israel is not without its own capabilities, but nobody, under the circumstances under which we live, nobody is looking for another major front of tension and confrontation,” he continued.
“当然，他们拥有海军能力和军事能力来支撑这一战略。当然，以色列也并非没有自己的能力，但在我们所处的环境下，没有人在寻找另一个主要的紧张和对抗前线，”他继续说道。勒曼警告称，以色列需要尽其所能防止埃及完全倒向土耳其，并建议耶路撒冷加强与雅典和尼科西亚的合作。
Warning that Israel needed to do what it could to keep Egypt from fully aligning with Turkey, Lerman advised Jerusalem to strengthen cooperation with Athens and Nicosia.