（托德的完整图表分析见上方视频。）我们正处于市场中一个真正有趣的关口。自初夏以来，我们一直追踪到资金持续从科技板块轮动到价值板块，这个主题我在本每周专栏中经常谈到。本周我们顺势而为，将成长型投资组合中人工智能相关部分削减了13.5%，按照上周本专栏所述增持了能源和医疗保健板块，并通过PSQ ETF对纳斯达克建立了5%的适度对冲。
(See the video above for Todd's complete chart breakdown.) We're at a genuinely interesting juncture in the market. Since early summer, we've tracked a steady rotation out of technology and into value, a theme I've covered often in this weekly column. This week we leaned into it and trimmed 13.5% from the artificial intelligence-related portion of our growth portfolio, added to energy and healthcare as discussed last week in this column, and placed a modest 5% hedge against the Nasdaq via the PSQ ETF .
随后，周二SpaceX公布的亮眼财报出炉，成长股强势回归。因此，作为主动型投资组合经理，我们必须回答的问题是：那是转折点，还是反弹至阻力位？在视频中，我详细讲解了我用来回答这个问题的两张图表。第一张是比率图，它是衡量相对强度最好的工具之一。价格图告诉你某个资产是否上涨了。比率图告诉你它是否比你本可以持有的替代资产涨得更多。
Then came Tuesday's blowout SpaceX earnings, and growth roared back. So the question we have to answer as active portfolio managers is: Was that a turning point, or a bounce into resistance? In the video, I walk through the two charts I'm using to answer it. The first is a ratio chart, which is one of the best tools for gauging relative strength. A price chart tells you whether something went up. A ratio chart tells you whether it went up more than the alternative you could have owned.
将一个资产除以另一个资产，比如用半导体除以标普500，只有当第一个资产表现跑赢时，这条线才会上升。投资组合的收益建立在百分比回报之上，而非美元涨跌，因此比率图直击关键问题：下一块钱应该投向哪里？这张图追踪的是过去一年VanEck半导体ETF（SMH）相对于标普500（SPY）和纳斯达克100（QQQ）的表现。
Divide one asset by another, like semis by the S & P 500 , and the line rises only when the first is outperforming. Portfolios are built on percentage returns, not dollar moves, so the ratio cuts straight to the question that matters: Where should the next dollar go? This chart tracks the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) against both the S & P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) over the past year.
两个比率都在6月1日前后见顶，此后尽管有人工智能建设浪潮，半导体相对这两个基准的表现均落后。现在，两个比率都恰好落在支撑位上。如果跌破这些高亮区域，将确认资金轮动离开半导体的趋势仍在延续，这是一个利好价值型板块的避险信号。第二张图是更传统的纳斯达克100日线图。在这张图上，6月高点和9月高点之间形成了一个双顶，随后跌破了上升趋势线（红色虚线）以及21日和50日移动均线。
Both ratios peaked around June 1, and semis have lagged both benchmarks since, AI build-out notwithstanding. Now, both ratios are sitting right on support. A break below those highlighted zones would confirm the rotation out of semis is continuing, a risk-off signal that favors value-oriented sectors. The second chart is the more traditional daily view of the Nasdaq-100. Here, a double top has formed between the June and September highs, followed by a break of the uptrend line (dashed red) and the 21- and 50-day moving averages.
SpaceX 的上涨行情目前正推动纳斯达克 100 指数从下方回升，重新测试那条已被跌破的支撑位，该位置现在可能在 30,000 点附近充当阻力位。考虑到我们的仓位配置，我认为该阻力位将守住。如果我判断有误，我们将解除对冲，并重新部署此前削减的 13.5% 仓位，很可能是在更高的价位买入。这就是在棘手关口进行主动管理时必须面对的真实权衡，我们将继续摸索前行。
The SpaceX rally is now pushing the Nasdaq-100 back up from below to retest that broken support, which may now act as resistance near 30,000. Given our positioning, I believe that resistance holds. If I'm wrong, we'll lift the hedge and redeploy the 13.5% we trimmed, likely at higher prices. That's the honest trade-off of active management at a tricky juncture like this, and we'll keep feeling our way through it.
Todd Gordon 是 Inside Edge Capital, LLC 的创始人。
Todd Gordon is the founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC.
披露：Gordon 本人及 Inside Edge Capital, LLC 的客户持有 SPCX 和 PSQ。图表来源为 Koyfin。CNBC Pro 投稿人表达的所有观点仅代表其个人观点，不代表 CNBC、其母公司或关联公司的观点，且可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介由其先前发布。本内容仅供参考，不构成财务、投资、税务或法律建议，亦不构成买入任何证券或其他金融资产的推荐。
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