
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京于2026年10月21日在圣彼得堡会见美国特使。| 克里斯蒂娜·索洛维娃/卫星通讯社/法新社 via Getty Images布鲁塞尔——欧洲各国政府日益意识到,可能很快需要提名某人,与俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米尔·普京就乌克兰和平协议进行直接会谈。主要问题是决定谁应承担如此危险的任务。
Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with US special envoy in Saint Petersburg on October 21, 2026. | Pool photo by Kristina Solovyova/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images BRUSSELS — There is a growing realization among European governments that they may soon need to nominate someone to face Russian leader Vladimir Putin in direct talks on a peace deal for Ukraine. The main problem is deciding who should take on such a hazardous task.
本周随着美国总统特使史蒂夫·维特科夫前往俄罗斯,向普京提出与唐纳德·特朗普和乌克兰领导人弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基举行三方峰会,以推动停火,这一问题变得更加紧迫。
The question gained urgency this week after U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia to offer Putin a three-way summit with Donald Trump and Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in an effort to press for a ceasefire.
“普京总统不把欧盟视为权威,”捷克总统彼得·帕维尔在接受阿克塞尔·斯普林格全球记者网络(POLITICO 所属)采访时于周二表示。“他不想与乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩会谈,也不与卡娅·卡拉斯会谈。他停止与其他欧洲领导人交谈,包括埃马纽埃尔·马克龙。”
“President Putin disregards the European Union as an authority,” Czech President Petr Pavel said Tuesday in an interview with the Axel Springer Global Reporters’ Network, of which POLITICO is a part. “He doesn’t want to talk to Ursula von der Leyen, he doesn’t talk to Kaja Kallas. He stopped talking to other European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron.”
他补充说,欧盟应“确定一个人或一群人,代表欧洲发声。未必是欧盟或北约的代表,而是由其他人授权进行谈判的领袖。”
He added that the EU should “identify a person or a group of people who would speak for Europe. Not necessarily representatives of the EU or NATO, but simply leaders who would be given a mandate by the others to negotiate.”
捷克总统彼得·帕维尔于2026年9月23日在纽约联合国总部第81届联合国大会期间发表讲话。| 蒂莫西·A·克拉里/法新社 via Getty Images近日,特朗普在与普京的对话中超越乌克兰及其欧洲盟友的立场,并显得越来越愿意站在俄罗斯一边,这让乌克兰及其欧洲盟友感到失望。
Czech President Petr Pavel speaks during the 81st United Nations General Assembly at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, on September 23, 2026. | Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images In recent days, Trump has dismayed Ukraine and its European allies by talking over their heads with Putin and appearing increasingly willing to take Russia’s side in the almost five-year war.
此举再次在布鲁塞尔及其他地区引发争论,呼吁欧洲必须拥有直接与克里姆林宫沟通的渠道,以维护地区利益并加强乌克兰抵御不平等协议的能力。
That has reignited debate in Brussels and beyond about the need for Europe to have its own direct line to the Kremlin to safeguard the region’s interests and bolster Ukraine’s ability to resist a lopsided deal.
“尽管这让人难以接受,但我确实认为,与普京建立某种沟通渠道是件好事,”伦敦皇家联合军种研究所杰出研究员戴维·利丁顿说。“我不乐观这能在短期内取得多大成果,但拥有一个渠道,以便在机会出现时加以利用,并非坏事。” 外交官和官员们对于谁最适合代表欧洲存在分歧。
“Much as it sticks in the craw, I do think a channel of some kind to Putin would be a good thing to have,” said David Lidington, a distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “I am not optimistic that it would achieve anything much in the short term, but to have a channel which can then be used as and when an opportunity arises is not a bad thing.”Diplomats and officials disagree on who would be the best person to represent Europe.
欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩曾直接与特朗普就贸易问题进行谈判,而欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔此前已通过其办公室与克里姆林宫建立了沟通渠道。欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡娅·卡拉斯是另一位潜在的关键人物,她代表整体欧洲利益发声。
Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, has negotiated directly with Trump on trade, while the president of the European Council, António Costa, has previously opened a line of communication with the Kremlin through his office. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas is another potential player who speaks for European interests as a whole.
但在一位欧盟成员国外交官看来,布鲁塞尔的决策圈子需要接受这样一个现实:与普京和特朗普达成的协议不会由欧盟议定书决定。这位外交官和本文中的其他人一样,获准匿名讨论敏感事项。
But the Brussels bubble needs to accept that a deal with Putin and Trump won’t be dictated by EU protocols, in the view of a diplomat from a European Union country who, like others in this article, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
“我们不能派出两三个人,全都代表欧盟发言,”这位外交官说。“最终由谁代表欧盟,将取决于谁能提供最大价值,而非个人权力斗争或自恋式的偏好。” 斯图布会挺身而出吗?
“We cannot show up with two or three people all speaking on behalf of the EU,” the diplomat said. “The choice of who ends up representing the EU will be based on what would provide the most value, not personal power struggles or narcissistic preferences.”Will Stubb step up?
一个在欧盟体制之外备受关注的名字是芬兰总统亚历山大·斯图布。有两个关键因素对他有利:可以说,他在欧盟领导人中与特朗普的关系最好,而芬兰长期以来在应对俄罗斯方面拥有丰富经验——两国共享1300公里边境,且历史上曾交战过。
One name outside the EU’s machinery that is gaining attention is Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland. Two key factors count in his favor: He has arguably the best relationship with Trump among EU leaders, and Finland has long experience of dealing with Russia — the two countries share a 1,300 kilometer border and have been at war in the past.
芬兰总统亚历山大·斯图布在10月20日于奥斯陆举行的关于乌克兰局势的会议后,出席联合记者会。 | Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images“这位外交官表示:“斯图布受到关注,是因为芬兰了解俄罗斯,且传统上与俄罗斯保持对话。他们比我们这边任何人都更清楚,在这种局势下要让人感到安全需要什么。”
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb delivers a joint press conference after a meeting on the situation in Ukraine on October 20, 2026 in Oslo. | Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images“Stubb is of interest because of Finnish knowledge of and traditional dialogue with Russia,” the diplomat said. “They know more than anyone on our side [about] what it takes to feel secure in such a situation.”
第二位欧盟外交官指出,斯图布“目前是唯一站出来展现高层政治领导力的人”,未来可能担任欧洲特使出席和平峰会。周二,斯图布与泽连斯基和威特科夫在挪威参加谈判,为美国特使访俄会见普京做准备。
A second EU diplomat noted that Stubb was “the only person who has come forward so far” to show high-level political leadership, and could serve as a European envoy at a future peace summit. Stubb was in Norway with Zelenskyy and Witkoff on Tuesday for negotiations ahead of the U.S. envoy’s visit to Russia to meet Putin.
欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的最高级助手比约恩·赛贝特也出席了在奥斯陆举行的聚会,他以“自愿联盟”成员身份参与了国家安全顾问会议,以支持乌克兰。
Also attending the gathering in Oslo was von der Leyen’s most senior aide, Bjoern Seibert, who has joined meetings of national security advisers as part of the Coalition of the Willing to support Ukraine.
第三位欧洲外交官表示,至关重要的是欧盟本身要在谈判中获得代表,而不是由德国、法国和英国等少数强国组成的小圈子代表。
A third European diplomat said it was vital that the EU itself be represented in the talks, instead of a small grouping of powerful countries such as Germany, France and the U.K.
这位外交官说,这意味着赛贝特和科斯塔的首席助手佩德罗·洛尔蒂耶都必须在筹备性会谈中拥有席位,且欧盟成员国必须及时获得进展通报。
That means both Seibert and Pedro Lourtie, the top aide to Costa, must have seats at the table during preparatory talks, the diplomat said, and that EU member countries must be properly updated on progress.
据第四位欧盟外交官透露,欧洲领导人在上周于布鲁塞尔举行的峰会上询问科斯塔,现在是否该由他与普京对话。“科斯塔说,不,他现在不会与普京对话,”该外交官说。“但如果我们想在谈判中发挥作用,科斯塔就应该开始与普京对话。不说话,就是把主动权交给了对手。”这位第四位外交官表示,科斯塔比冯德莱恩或卡拉斯更合适,因为后两人都被视为过度站在乌克兰一边,无法有效代表欧盟在领导人层面发声。
Calling Costa According to a fourth EU diplomat, European leaders asked Costa at last week’s summit in Brussels whether it might be time for him to talk to Putin. “Costa said, no, he’s not going to talk to Putin now,” they said. “But Costa should start talking to Putin if we want to play a role in the negotiations. By not speaking, we are playing into the hands of our opponents.”The fourth diplomat said Costa would be a better choice than von der Leyen or Kallas, who are both seen as too invested in the Ukrainian side to represent the EU effectively at leader level.
卡拉斯尤其直言不讳地批评特朗普。“科斯塔给人的印象更像是一位诚实的斡旋者,”该外交官总结道。
Kallas in particular has been outspoken in her criticism of Trump. “Costa comes across as more of an honest broker,” they summarized.
欧盟委员会坚称欧盟已出席和谈,并指出塞伯特周二在奥斯陆的出席。“此次[在奥斯陆]的主要目的是探讨是否具备条件,可能转入乌克兰和俄罗斯同桌的三方甚至多方会谈,”欧盟委员会发言人保拉·平约周三对记者表示。
The European Commission insists the EU is already present at the peace talks, flagging Seibert’s presence in Oslo on Tuesday. “The main aim [in Oslo] was to explore if the parameters are there for a possible move to trilateral or even multilateral talks with Ukraine and Russia present at the same table,” European Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho told reporters on Wednesday.
她说,会谈聚焦于领土、安全以及乌克兰战后繁荣;维特科夫预计将在会见普京后向乌克兰和欧洲方面通报情况。“非常重要的是,我们坐在了谈判桌前,能够阐述我们的立场,并能够致力于一个共同目标,即结束这场可怕的战争,”她补充道。
She said the talks had focused on territory, security and post-war prosperity for Ukraine; Witkoff is expected to debrief Ukraine and the Europeans after his trip to meet Putin. “What is very important is that we are sitting at the table, that we are able to present our position, and that we can engage in what is a shared objective to put an end to this horrific war,” she added.