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特朗普这样的强人纯粹出于恶意就会毁灭地球——而巴西表明我们都身处险境Strongmen like Trump would destroy the planet out of pure spite – and Brazil shows we’re all in peril | George Monbiot

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巴西里约热内卢,10月4日周日,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在巴西大选投票后。摄影:卢卡斯·兰道/美联社Flávio Bolsonaro after voting in Brazil’s general election, Rio de Janeiro, Sunday 4 October. Photograph: Lucas Landau/AP

然而,尽管这条轨迹看起来如此严峻,但我始终相信,正义终将获胜。随着破坏这个生机勃勃的世界所带来的巨大危险日益明显,即便是最贪婪的掠夺者也必须最终醒悟。谁愿意生活在一颗死寂的星球上呢?

However grim the trajectory might seem, I`ve always believed that sense will ultimately prevail. As the great perils of dismantling the living world become increasingly obvious, even the most rapacious exploiters must come round. Nobody wants to live on a dead planet, do they?

————或者————迹象表明,这并非仅仅是美好的愿望。自2015年以来,在很大程度上得益于中国,地球上重新造林的土地面积增加了;而在很大程度上得益于巴西,全球森林破坏的速度下降了。每年被清除的巴西亚马逊森林面积,仅为1988年有记录以来开始时的六分之一。在过去四年中,由于巴西政府政策的原因,森林砍伐率下降了71%。如果卢西·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达·席尔瓦在周日再次当选总统,该国有望在2030年实现零森林砍伐。道德宇宙的弧线似乎已经向正义弯去。

There are – or – signs that this wasn`t just wishful thinking. Since 2015, mostly thanks to China, the area of the planet being reforested has increased, while thanks in large part to Brazil, the global rate of forest destruction has declined. The area of the Brazilian Amazon forest cleared each year is one-sixth of what it was when records began in 1988. In the past four years, as a result of Brazilian government policy, the deforestation rate has fallen by 71%. If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is re-elected president on Sunday, the country could reach zero deforestation by 2030. The arc of the moral universe seems to have bent towards justice.

但我的对人类本性的信念未能预见的是,一小部分经济精英对毁灭有一种扭曲的快感。有些人似乎热爱死亡而仇恨生命。特朗普撤销公共土地保护措施、他对约塞米蒂国家公园的“小咬”——无疑是其中第一口——以及他对美国国家公园管理局和美国林务局的攻击,还有他对《濒危物种法》的贬损:这一切在很大程度上都是牧场主、伐木工人、钻探工人和矿主的游说的回应。但我认为,这并非主要驱动力。

But what my faith in human nature failed to account for was a perverse delight in destruction among a small cohort of the economic elite. There are people who appear to hate life and love death. Donald Trump`s removal of protections on public lands, the small bite – doubtless the first of many – he wants to take out of Yosemite, his assaults on the US National Park Service and the US Forest Service, his trashing of the Endangered Species Act: all are partly a response to lobbying by ranchers, loggers, frackers and miners. But this, I think, is not the primary driver.

我相信,对他来说更重要的是报复性的伤害欲望。我怀疑特朗普是否憎恨帝王蝶。如果他知道那是什么,我会感到惊讶。但他似乎确实憎恨热爱帝王蝶的人。摧毁帝王蝶以及美国许多其他濒危物种赖以生存的栖息地,似乎是他所承诺的“报复”的一部分。《纽约时报》未能找到特朗普曾访问过国家公园的证据。他可能也不恨它们。但似乎任何被敌人所珍视的东西——环保主义者、自由主义者、社会主义者、女权主义者、反种族主义者、“官僚”和“阻挠者”——都应该被原则上攻击。

More important to him, Ive come to believe, is a vengeful desire to hurt. I doubt Trump hates the monarch butterfly. Id be surprised if he knows what it is. But he does appear to hate people who love the monarch butterfly. Destroying the habitats on which this and many other endangered species in the US depend seems to be part of the “retribution” he promised. The New York Times was unable to find evidence that Trump has ever visited a national park. He probably doesn`t hate them either. But seemingly anything valued by the enemy – greens, liberals, socialists, feminists, anti-racists, “bureaucrats” and “blockers” – should be attacked on principle.

将生态系统从地图上抹去是权力的明显展示。灭绝留下永久的印记,这是每个独裁者的梦想。这也是伤害那些抵抗他的人的极其有效的手段:原住民和其他有色人种常常是环境破坏的受害者;监管者;科学家和其他知识分子;最重要的是,关心他人的人。

Wiping ecosystems off the map is an obvious demonstration of power. Extinction leaves a permanent mark, which is every dictators dream. Its also a highly effective means of hurting those who resist him: the Indigenous people and other people of colour so often on the receiving end of environmental destruction; the regulators; the scientists and the rest of the intelligentsia; above all, people who .

关心可以被视为极右翼的元目标。“自杀式同理心”这一主题现在反复出现在视频、报纸专栏和演讲中:一种公开宣称的信念,即那些关心他人或其他物种的人应该被那些不关心的人摧毁。这种信念,按定义来说,是精神变态的。耗尽我乐观情绪的是,人们被诸如使用残酷手段解决犯罪等肤浅承诺所欺骗,不断选举那些对此推波助澜的人。

Caring could be seen as the far rights meta-target. The “suicidal empathy” theme now crops up repeatedly in videos, newspaper columns and speeches: a professed belief that those who care about other people or species should be destroyed by those who dont. This belief, by definition, is psychopathic. What exhausts my optimism is that, conned by shallow promises such as the use of brutal methods to address crime, people keep electing those who to it.

从身体特征和政治立场来看,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗与他那因策划政变而被监禁的父亲贾伊尔·博索纳罗如出一辙。贾伊尔·博索纳罗在担任巴西总统期间,将生态破坏视为一种“神圣的职责”;在他的任期内,森林砍伐率上升了59%,针对原住民及其他森林保护者的暴力行为也急剧增加,非法牧场主、伐木工人和金矿开采者的活动也愈发猖獗。无论这些行为会带来怎样的后果,也不管它们会如何阻碍社会进步,最原始、最野蛮的剥削手段都被视为理所当然的政策选择。

Physically and politically, Flávio Bolsonaro is the spitting image of his father, the jailed coup-plotter, Jair. When Jair Bolsonaro was president of Brazil, he appeared to see ecological destruction as a kind of a holy duty. The deforestation rate rose by 59% in his four years, and attacks on Indigenous people and other forest defenders, as well as invasions by illegal ranchers, loggers and goldminers rocketed. The crudest forms of extractivism – regardless of their costs, or how they might hold back all kinds of progress – were a matter of policy.

2025年2月,朗多尼亚州新加利福尼亚一家锯木厂,一名稽查员在打击毁林行动中查获了来自亚马孙雨林的原木。摄影:乌埃斯莱·马塞利诺/路透社Inspector with logs seized from the Amazon rainforest during an operation to combat deforestation, at a sawmill in Nova California, Rondonia, February 2025. Photograph: Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters

巴西极右翼的意识形态可以被概括为“牛肉、圣经和子弹”:对那些反抗资源掠夺的人使用暴力;推行极端保守的价值观;以及大规模扩张牛肉养殖业。这种扩张行为既是极右翼男性霸权主义的象征,也是亚马逊森林砍伐的主要推动力。

The ideology of the far right in Brazil has been described as “beef, Bible and bullets”: violence against those who resist the seizure of their resources, an ultra-conservative evangelism and the expansion of cattle ranching, which is both a potent symbol of far-right machismo and the primary driver of deforestation in the Amazon.

贾伊尔·博索纳罗怀着怀旧之情回顾了1964年至1985年的军事独裁时期——那段时期得到了美国政府的积极支持;在那个时期,当地寡头可以为所欲为,而任何反对他们的人都会遭到折磨甚至失踪。这些警告再明显不过了,但巴西似乎决心重蹈覆辙。弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在10月4日的初选中获胜,极有可能成为下一任总统。

Jair Bolsonaro looked back with nostalgia to the military dictatorship of 1964 to 1985 – which was actively supported by the US government – during which local oligarchs could do as they pleased, and those who opposed them were tortured and disappeared. The warnings couldn`t be clearer, but Brazil seems determined to revisit its nightmares. Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round on 4 October, and is likely to become president.

如果他本周在决选中再次获胜,他的支持者们将在政府政策的推动下继续实施暴力行为,这不仅会威胁到亚马逊森林,还会危及南部的大西洋森林、潘塔纳尔湿地、潘帕草原以及塞拉多地区的稀树草原生态系统。这简直就是一场毁灭性的政治闹剧……让我们亲手摧毁自己赖以生存的生态系统吧——这样就能给那些自由派一个教训!

If he wins the second round this week, the gleeful rampage of his supporters, catalysed by government policy, threatens not only the Amazon but the Atlantic forest in the south, the Pantanal wetlands, the Pampa grasslands and the savannah habitats of the Cerrado. This is politics as an orgy of destruction. Lets eradicate our life support systems – thatll teach the liberals!

特朗普一直在动用一切可能的手段帮助博索纳罗获胜。他给人的印象是,他把拉丁美洲看作一个巨大的宝库,随时准备掠夺。该地区的极右翼煽动者非常乐意帮忙。大规模森林砍伐以及随之可能出现的生态系统突然崩溃,为他们的政治画上了句号:一旦走到这一步,就再也回不去了。你们原住民、你们环保人士、你们照护者:你们将无处可藏。世界将是我们的,哪怕这是一个灰烬中的世界。

Trump has been using all possible means to help Bolsonaro win. He gives the impression of seeing Latin America as the did – one big heap of treasure, ready for looting. The regions far-right demagogues are only to happy to help. Mass deforestation and the sudden ecosystem collapse that is likely to result offers a finality to their politics: theres no coming back from this. You Indigenous people, you greens, you carers: you`ll have nowhere left to hide. The world will be ours, even if it is a world of ashes.

什么能给我们教训?首先,统治阶级的乖张似乎没有底线,他们宁愿什么都不剩,也不愿把地球的任何一小部分让给穷人。

What might teach us? First, it appears there is no limit to the perversity of the ruling class, which would rather there was nothing left to share than cede any fraction of the planet to the poor.

其次,它拥有所有必要的工具——社交媒体和传统媒体、讲坛和枪支——足以让它的乖张看起来像常识,或者至少令人无法抗拒,因为武力已被部署。第三,我们对抗自杀式轻信的唯一防御,就是巴西人所说的“觉悟化”:提高人们对剥削者与被剥削者之间关系的认识,以及支撑这种关系的暴力。否则,人性中所有善良、信任和充满希望的东西,都可能被利用来发动一场针对所有人、所有事物的战争。

Second, that it possesses all the tools – social and traditional media, the pulpit and the gun – required to make its perversity look like common sense, or at least irresistible, as force is deployed. Third, that the only defence we have against suicidal gullibility is what the Brazilians call : raising awareness about the relations between exploiters and exploited, and the violence that underpins them. Otherwise all that is good, trusting and hopeful in humanity can be harnessed for a war against everyone and everything.

至于“没有人想住在一个死去的星球上”这个想法,埃隆·马斯克用他那些荒唐的火星居住计划——“去他妈的地球!谁在乎地球?”——也把它杀死了。把毁灭的边疆向外延伸,甚至延伸到人类灭绝的地步,竟显得像是一件值得骄傲的事。四骑士再次骑马而来,不是披着斗篷,而是戴着牛仔帽、穿着牛仔衬衫,赶着他们的牛群走在前面。乔治·蒙比奥特是《卫报》专栏作家

As for the idea that nobody wants to live on a dead planet, Elon Musk, with his preposterous plans for living on Mars – “Fuck Earth! Who cares about Earth?” – has killed that too. Extending the frontier of destruction, even to the point of human extinction, comes across as a matter of pride. The four horsemen ride again, not in cloaks but in stetsons and denim shirts, driving their cattle before them. George Monbiot is a Guardian columnist

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