以色列大选将于周二（10月27日）举行。这是自2023年10月7日哈马斯领导的对以色列袭击及其后在加沙、与伊朗、真主党和胡塞武装的冲突以来的首次选举。
Israel's general election takes place on Tuesday 27 October. It's the first election since the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on Israel and its subsequent conflicts in Gaza and with Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
许多人认为这是以色列历史上最关键的选举之一，具有全球性影响。
Many view it as one of the most pivotal elections in Israel's history, with global implications.
目前的民调显示，现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与前以色列国防军总参谋长加迪·艾森科特陷入胶着竞争，争夺总理职位。
Current polling puts incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu in a tight race with Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defense Forces, to become prime minister.
艾森科特的声望部分源于他的军事资历，以及他相对较晚进入政坛——他创建的“雅沙尔党”成立仅一年。
Eisenkot's popularity stems partly from his military credentials and his relative newness in politics, having formed his Yashar Party only last year.
他在加沙战争初期失去了作为士兵的儿子，曾在内塔尼亚胡领导的战时内阁任职，直到2024年因对冲突的分歧而辞职。他以要求对导致10月7日事件的安全失误追责为竞选核心。
He lost his son, a soldier, in the first months of the Gaza war, and served in Israel's war cabinet under Netanyahu until resigning in 2024 over disagreements about the conflict. He has built his campaign on calls for accountability over the security failures that led to 7 October.
其他反对派领袖包括前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特和阿维格多·利伯曼——两人均为右翼人士，在安全问题上立场强硬，主张以色列永久控制被占约旦河西岸的大部分地区——以及左翼人士亚伊尔·戈兰，他支持以色列从该领土大部分地区撤出。尽管分歧巨大，他们仍可能与艾森科特合作组建政府。
Other opposition leaders include former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman - both right-wingers who take hardline positions on security and advocate permanent Israeli control over much of the occupied West Bank - and Yair Golan, a left-winger who supports Israel's withdrawal from large parts of the territory. Despite their differences, they could work with Eisenkot to form a government.
内塔尼亚胡现任政府是以色列历史上最右翼的政府。为继续掌权，他很可能不得不依靠现有部分极右翼联盟伙伴的支持。其中一些人持超民族主义立场，例如呼吁以色列吞并约旦河西岸，以及推动加沙巴勒斯坦人“迁徙”——这可能构成强制平民流离失所。内塔尼亚胡所属利库德集团的部分成员也呼吁巴勒斯坦人从该领土“迁徙”。
Netanyahu's current government is the most right-wing in Israel's history. In order to remain in power, he will likely have to rely on the support of some of his existing far-right coalition partners. Some hold ultra-nationalist positions, such as calling for Israel to annex the West Bank and for the "migration" of Palestinians from Gaza - which could amount to the forced displacement of civilians. Some members of Netanyahu's own Likud party have also called for Palestinian "migration" from the territory.
参选的还有两个阿拉伯政党集团，因为以色列约五分之一人口是阿拉伯人——其中许多人自称是以色列的巴勒斯坦公民。理论上，他们可能成为左右局势的关键力量。但除一个主要犹太政党外，其余均排除与他们合作。
There are two Arab party blocs in the running too, as about one-fifth of Israel's population is Arab - many of whom describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. In theory, they could prove kingmakers. But all but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out working with them.
以色列议会——即克内塞特——共有120个席位，意味着政府必须掌握61席才能拥有多数。
Israel's parliament - known as the Knesset - has 120 seats, meaning a government must hold 61 seats to command a majority.
以色列采用比例代表制投票制度，意味着政府历来由多党联盟组成。
Israel uses a proportional representation voting system, meaning governments have always been coalitions of multiple parties.
这意味着选举日后，可能需要数周甚至数月才能组建下一届政府——各党将为让步讨价还价、达成交易。如果没有任何集团能组成多数，少数派政府也有可能上台。
This means that after election day, it may take weeks or even months before the next government is formed - with different parties wrangling for concessions and deals being struck. If no bloc can form a majority, it is possible a minority government could take power.
主导议题是安全——挑战内塔尼亚胡的各方都严厉批评导致10月7日袭击的安全失误，那次袭击造成近1200人死亡，另有251人被带回加沙作为人质。尽管如此，内塔尼亚胡再次将自己定位为“安全先生”，指出自2023年以来以色列战争中的战略胜利。
The dominating topic has been security - with the challengers to Netanyahu all heavily criticising the security failures that led to the 7 October attacks, in which nearly 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken back to Gaza as hostages. Nevertheless, Netanyahu has once again framed himself as "Mr Security", pointing to strategic victories in Israel's wars since 2023.
征兵也是主要议题。历史上，全职从事宗教学习的极端正统派犹太男性获豁免兵役，但自战争爆发以来，这一政策日益具有分裂性。
Conscription is also a major topic. Historically, ultra-Orthodox Jewish men in full-time religious study have been exempt from military service, but since war broke out this has become an increasingly divisive policy.
司法改革在竞选期间也占据重要地位。内塔尼亚胡政府仍在推行有争议的司法体制改革计划，该计划在10月7日前引发大规模抗议。批评者称，这些计划将损害司法独立并威胁民主。
Judicial reform has also featured heavily during the campaign. Netanyahu's government is still pursuing contentious plans for reforms to the judicial system, which led to mass protests before 7 October. Critics say the plans would compromise the independence of the judiciary and threaten democracy.
与许多国家一样，生活成本是另一关键议题。近年来食品和住房成本持续上涨。
As in many countries, cost of living is another key issue. Food and housing costs have grown steadily in recent years.
加沙停火一年后，以色列继续对该地区发动近乎每日的空袭——称其目标是哈马斯武装人员——并维持对加沙一半以上地区的控制。
A year on from the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel continues to carry out near-daily strikes on the territory - saying it is targeting Hamas operatives - and maintains control of more than half of it.
据哈马斯运营的卫生部称，自2023年10月7日以来，已有超过7.4万人在以色列对加沙的袭击中丧生——联合国认为该机构的数据可靠。
More than 74,000 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza since 7 October 2023, according to the Hamas-run health ministry - whose figures are considered reliable by the UN.
据联合国记录，在约旦河西岸，犹太定居者的袭击达到历史最高水平，而根据国际法属于非法的以色列定居点正在迅速扩张。
In the West Bank, attacks by Jewish settlers are at an all-time high, according to UN records, while Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law, are rapidly expanding.
因此对巴勒斯坦人来说，以色列政府的组成是影响他们生活的一个主要因素。
So for Palestinians, the shape of Israel's government is a major factor in their lives.
在加沙问题上，由内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特领导的两大阵营立场相似——两人都支持唐纳德·特朗普的和平计划，该计划将要求哈马斯放弃武器，以换取以色列分阶段从该地区撤军。艾森科特最近承诺在18个月内结束哈马斯对该地区的统治，必要时将通过军事手段实现。
On Gaza, the two leading camps - headed by Netanyahu and Eisenkot - hold similar positions - with both supporting Donald Trump's peace plan, which would see Hamas give up its weapons in exchange for a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from the territory. Eisenkot recently pledged to end Hamas rule in the territory within 18 months, through military means if necessary.
在约旦河西岸，内塔尼亚胡的阵营在很大程度上希望继续其定居点扩张政策。
In the West Bank, Netanyahu's camp largely wants to continue with its policy of settlement expansion.
艾森科特总体上支持以色列定居点，但反对推进颇具争议的E1定居点项目，该项目实际上会将约旦河西岸一分为二。他还希望关闭一些建在巴勒斯坦土地上的未经批准的定居者前哨，为与巴勒斯坦人达成最终和平解决方案创造条件，并打击极端主义犹太定居者。
Eisenkot supports Israeli settlements in general, but opposes proceeding with the controversial E1 settlement project which would, in effect, split the West Bank in two. He also wants to close some unauthorised settler outposts built on Palestinian land, create conditions for a final peace settlement with the Palestinians, and crack down on extremist Jewish settlers.
几十年来，许多以色列主流政客主张两国方案——即建立一个与以色列和平共处的独立巴勒斯坦国——尽管内塔尼亚胡长期以来一直反对这一方案。但对该主张的支持多年来持续下降。在这次选举中，没有任何主要犹太政党以两国方案作为竞选纲领，许多政党更是明确表示反对。
For decades, many mainstream Israeli politicians advocated for a two-state solution - the creation of an independent Palestinian state in peaceful coexistence alongside Israel - although Netanyahu has long opposed it. But support for the idea has been declining for years. In this election, none of the leading Jewish parties are campaigning on it, and many have outright rejected it.
选举日当地时间22:00（格林尼治时间20:00），以色列广播机构将公布出口民调。这将在一定程度上显示投票走向，但出口民调可能差异很大，而目前的民调显示，不太可能出现明确的预期赢家。初步结果预计于次日公布，官方结果定于11月4日发布。
At 22:00 local time (20:00 GMT) on election day, Israeli broadcasters will publish exit polls. These will give some indication of the direction of voting, but can vary significantly and current polling suggests a clear projected winner is unlikely. Preliminary results are expected the next day, with official results scheduled to be published on 4 November.
在咨询各党派领导人后，总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格将邀请他认为最有可能组建政府的那位领导人来组阁。
After consulting with party leaders, President Isaac Herzog will then invite whichever leader he believes has the best chance of forming a government to do so.
这一过程可能耗时一个多月，如果失败，总统可能会请另一位领导人尝试。如果那也失败，以色列议会议员可以请求总统允许第三位领导人尝试。如果仍然失败，则将宣布重新举行选举。
This process can take more than a month, and if it fails the president may ask another leader to try. If that also fails, Knesset members can ask the president to allow a third leader to try. And if that fails, new elections will be called.
2019年至2022年间，以色列举行了五次单独的选举，各党派一再难以合作。
Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as parties struggled time and again to co-operate.