两年前本周，普拉博沃·苏比扬托就职一周年之际，81%的印尼人告诉民调机构，他们赞同这位曾任将军、现任印尼第八任总统的普拉博沃。如今，只有45%的人持此看法。许多西方领导人会为这个数字而趋之若鹜，但在印尼这种尊重权威的文化中，这标志着自1998年民主回归以来，总统支持率出现的最陡峭下跌。这一切究竟是如何走错的？
At the first anniversary of his inauguration two years ago this week, 81% of Indonesians told pollsters that they approved of Prabowo Subianto, a former general who is their eighth president. Now only 45% do. Many Western leaders would kill for that number, but in Indonesia’s deferential culture it marks the steepest fall in support for a president since the return of democracy in 1998. How has it all gone so wrong?
首先，投资者信心已崩溃。今年以来，印尼股市已暴跌40%，成为全球表现最差的股市。10月16日，金融分析公司MSCI威胁要将印尼降至其最低市场等级，与黎巴嫩和乌克兰等饱经战火的地方并列。该公司表示，普拉博沃政府未能采取足够措施来制止拉高出货骗局和内幕交易。印尼盾已跌至二十年来最低水平。外国直接投资（FDI）流入量令人失望，而在普拉博沃的前任佐科·维多多（即佐科维）任内，该数据曾大幅飙升，当时他积极拉拢中国矿商。
First, investor confidence has collapsed. The Indonesian stock market has plunged by 40% so far this year, making it the world’s worst-performing. On October 16th MSCI, a financial-analytics company, threatened to dump Indonesia into its lowest grade of market, along with such shrapnel-scarred places as Lebanon and Ukraine. Mr Prabowo’s government, it says, has not done enough to end pump-and-dump schemes and insider trading. The currency is at its weakest for two decades. Flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), which soared under Mr Prabowo’s predecessor, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi), as he courted Chinese miners, have been disappointing.
在越南和马来西亚等邻国，得益于人工智能热潮和强劲的全球贸易，外国直接投资本应如火如荼。但普拉博沃反复无常的统治，使印尼成为一个难以开展业务的地方。
FDI ought to be roaring, as it is in nearby Vietnam and Malaysia, on the back of the AI boom and strong global trade. But Mr Prabowo’s erratic rule is making Indonesia a tricky place to do business.
深入探究 其次，普拉博沃几乎未能解决根深蒂固的经济顽疾。在他执政期间，劳动力市场的问题进一步恶化，中产阶级实际工资下降，黑市规模庞大，大学毕业生失业率居高不下。8%的增长目标本就雄心勃勃，如今遥不可及。普拉博沃的主要举措已被证明是浪费钱财（每年130亿美元的免费校园供餐计划），或是复杂且多余（计划设立8万个国有村庄合作社）。此类噱头曾经很受欢迎；最近的民调显示，选民在尝试过之后，已不再那么印象深刻。
Dig deeper Second, Mr Prabowo has done little to cure underlying economic maladies. A broken labour market has become worse on his watch, with falling middle-class real wages, a huge black market and high levels of graduate unemployment. A growth target of 8%, always ambitious, is far out of reach. Mr Prabowo’s main initiatives have proved wasteful (a $13bn-a-year free-school-meals programme) or complicated and unnecessary (plans for 80,000 state-run village co-operatives). Such gimmicks used to be popular; recent polling shows that voters, having sampled them, are no longer so impressed.
如果普拉博沃不能把经济搞好，他就有可能疏远政治精英——这是第三个问题。已经，各党派老板们正在考虑采取行动反对他。普拉博沃在2025年获胜，仅仅得益于他的前任兼前对手的背书。然而，佐科维和这位将军现在似乎已经势不两立。一些与普拉博沃有关联的军官正寻求罢免他的副总统，而这位副总统是佐科维的儿子。据说，印度尼西亚另外两位在世的前总统也在进行权谋活动。普拉博沃在任职头两年的政治稳定性可能不会持续下去。
If Mr Prabowo cannot get the economy right, he risks alienating political elites—a third problem. Already, party bosses are considering moves against him. Mr Prabowo won in 2025 thanks only to the endorsement of his predecessor and former rival. However, Jokowi and the general now appear to be at loggerheads. Some officers linked to Mr Prabowo are seeking the removal of his vice-president, who is Jokowi’s son. Indonesia’s other two living ex-presidents are said to be manoeuvring, too. The political stability of Mr Prabowo’s first two years in office may not last.
普拉博沃仍然可以依靠军队和警察的支持。他曾指挥印度尼西亚的特种部队，并被指控在1990年代让异见人士失踪，他对此指控强烈否认。有些人担心，他可能会再次动用肮脏手段来打压异议。这种迹象已经显现。在他10月20日就职二周年计划举行示威活动的前几周，警察和士兵据称贿赂活动人士，让他们远离街头。袭击者殴打了该抗议活动的主要组织者之一。警方表示正在调查，但尚未确定任何肇事者。
Mr Prabowo can still count on the backing of the army and the police. He used to command Indonesia’s special forces and was alleged to have made dissidents disappear in the 1990s, an accusation that he furiously denies. Some fear he will be tempted to use dirty tricks to suppress dissent again. Hints of this are already visible. In the weeks leading up to planned demonstrations on the second anniversary of his inauguration, on October 20th, police and soldiers allegedly bribed activists to stay off the streets. Assailants beat up one of the protest’s main organisers. Police say they are investigating but have yet to identify any culprits.
普拉博沃今年6月在《经济学人》撰写客座专栏文章时表示，他欢迎批评，并且印度尼西亚人应当得到比过去几年5%的增长更好的待遇。他渴望更多，这是正确的。印度尼西亚是世界上人口第四多的国家，拥有近2.9亿人口、巨大的资源、庞大的市场和无限的潜力。
Writing a guest column in The Economist in June, Mr Prabowo declared that he welcomed criticism and that Indonesians deserved better than the 5% growth of previous years. He is right to aspire to more. Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most-populous country, has almost 290m people, immense resources, a huge market and boundless potential.
不幸的是，阻碍其实现这一潜力的主要障碍就是普拉博沃本人。事实上，现在的期望值已经低到，即使是微小的政策改进也可能提振投资者的信心。股市和汇市更加稳定，也可能缓解部分政治压力。但要让印度尼西亚步入正轨，普拉博沃必须认识到，他的民粹主义做法已经走到了尽头。■
Unfortunately, the main obstacle to it fulfilling that potential is Mr Prabowo himself. Indeed, expectations are now so low that even minor policy improvements could lift investors’ confidence. Steadier stock and currency markets could alleviate some of the political pressure, too. But for Indonesia to hit its stride, Mr Prabowo must recognise that his populist approach has run out of road. ■