不妨试着忽略美国那位笨手笨脚的和平特使史蒂夫·维特科夫对弗拉基米尔·普京令人反感的吹捧。也不必在意欧洲领导人和外交官在奥斯陆与弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基闭门会晤的场景。
Ignore, if you can, the repulsive praise of Vladimir Putin uttered by Steve Witkoff, the US’s bumbling peace envoy. Never mind the spectacle of European leaders and diplomats closeted with Volodymyr Zelensky in Oslo.
归根结底，解决乌克兰冲突是否取得任何进展，取决于约2000平方英里的饱受战火摧残的领土。
In the end, whether any progress is being made towards resolving Ukraine’s conflict depends on about 2,000 sq miles of war-ravaged territory.
这正是乌克兰东部顿涅茨克州的这片地区，俄罗斯领导人想要得到它，却始终未能夺取。他一次又一次发动徒劳的攻势，把大批年轻同胞送进绞肉机，牺牲了一代又一代人，却始终未能征服这片满目疮痍的土地，即便如此，普京仍坚持要在任何和平协议中把这块土地交到他手上。
This is the area of eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region that Russia’s leader wants, but has never been able to capture. Having sacrificed legions of young compatriots in one futile offensive after another, hurling them into the meat grinder time and again, but without conquering this devastated patch of land, Putin insists on having it served to him in any peace agreement.
然而，乌克兰士兵已经花了四年多的时间，顶住俄罗斯投来的一切，奋力守住这片领土。泽连斯基早已接受，为了和平，他不得不放弃莫斯科军队目前占领的乌克兰20%的领土。但他认为没有理由牺牲他的部队在战斗中成功守住的土地，尤其是这片土地本来就理应属于乌克兰。
Yet Ukrainian soldiers have spent more than four years fighting to hold this territory against everything that Russia has thrown at them. Zelensky has long since accepted that, in the cause of peace, he will have to give up the 20 per cent of Ukraine that Moscow’s forces currently occupy. But he sees no reason to sacrifice what his troops have successfully kept in battle, particularly as the land in question is rightfully Ukrainian anyway.
除俄罗斯和朝鲜外，全世界都承认整个顿涅茨克是乌克兰的一部分。俄罗斯也曾承认这一点，至少在战前是如此——当时普京签署了一系列协议，承认这个邻国的边界。
The entire world, apart from Russia and North Korea, recognises the whole of Donetsk as being part of Ukraine. So did Russia, at least before the war, when Putin signed a series of agreements accepting his neighbour’s frontiers.
此外，普京索要的这片地区可能仍居住着20万乌克兰人。难道泽连斯基应该把他们交给敌人吗？从惨痛的经验来看，这个敌人会杀害男人、绑架他们的孩子、强奸他们的妻子。
What is more, perhaps 200,000 Ukrainians still live in the area that Putin demands. Is Zelensky supposed to hand them over to an enemy which, judging by bitter experience, will murder the men, kidnap their children and rape their wives?
更糟糕的是，普京想要的这片土地包括乌克兰的堡垒城市斯拉维扬斯克、克拉马托尔斯克和科斯蒂安蒂尼夫卡，它们构成了保护乌克兰其余地区的至关重要的防线。放弃它们，俄罗斯就能如美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥所说的那样，“直捣基辅”。
Even worse, the land that Putin wants includes Ukraine’s fortress towns of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka, which form a vital defensive line protecting the rest of the country. Give them up, and Russia would have what Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, calls a “straight shot into Kyiv”.
任何基于这些条款的协议几乎都只会带来停火，而非持久和平。如果普京得到乌克兰的堡垒，他将处于理想位置，可以发动第三次入侵，夺取基辅，并一劳永逸地践踏这个邻国的其余部分。
Any agreement on these terms would almost certainly produce a truce rather than a lasting peace. If Putin gets Ukraine’s fortresses, he would be ideally positioned to launch a third invasion to seize Kyiv and trample down the rest of his neighbour once and for all.
由此推论，这些和平谈判要取得任何真正进展，需要满足两种可能之一：要么普京放弃他对那2000平方英里土地的要求，要么泽连斯基放弃这片土地，签署等同于乌克兰投降的协议。
It follows that any real progress in these peace talks would require one of two possibilities. Either Putin abandons his demand for the 2,000 sq miles, or Zelensky gives up this land and signs what would amount to Ukraine’s capitulation.
但除非被迫，否则两个敌人都不会让步。这一现实在唐纳德·特朗普与欧洲之间划出了一道关键分歧。特朗普打破僵局的方式是强行逼迫泽连斯基放弃这片土地。相比之下，欧洲希望迫使普京放弃一项不合理的要求。
But neither enemy is going to yield unless compelled to. That reality opens a crucial divide between Donald Trump and Europe. Trump’s way of breaking the impasse is to muscle Zelensky into relinquishing the land. Europe, by contrast, wants Putin to be forced to drop an unreasonable demand.
在战争结束前，总有一方必须退让，这意味着乌克兰的命运将由赤裸裸的强权政治决定。如果任由特朗普和普京自行其是，他们会达成双边协议，把那2000平方英里土地给俄罗斯，然后强迫泽连斯基咽下这项协议。
One side will have to retreat before the war ends, which means that Ukraine’s fate is going to be decided by power politics, red in tooth and claw. Left to themselves, Trump and Putin would strike a bilateral deal, giving the 2,000 sq miles to Russia and then force this agreement down Zelensky’s throat.
但他们无法完全随心所欲，因为关键在于，欧洲已设法挤上了谈判桌。当特朗普切断美国对泽连斯基的支持时，欧盟填补了缺口，向乌克兰提供900亿欧元（750亿英镑），并为其武器买单。
But they cannot have everything their own way because, crucially, Europe has managed to push its way to the table. When Trump pulled the plug on the US’s backing for Zelensky, the EU filled the gap by providing Ukraine with €90bn (£75bn) and paying for its weapons.
与此同时，欧盟已对俄罗斯实施了不下22轮制裁，英国也加入其中。结果是欧洲不能被忽视。在任何解决方案中，普京都需这些制裁被解除。与此同时，只要欧洲还在为乌克兰的斗争提供武器和资金，泽连斯基就不可能被俄罗斯和美国随意碾压。
At the same time, the bloc has imposed no fewer than 22 rounds of sanctions on Russia, joined by Britain. The result is that Europe cannot be ignored. Putin will need those sanctions to be lifted under any settlement. Zelensky, meanwhile, cannot simply be steamrolled by Russia and America for as long as Europe is arming and funding Ukraine’s struggle.
欧盟及其盟友（尤其是英国和挪威）迄今为止已经积累了足够的集体影响力，从而阻止了“雅尔塔式解决方案”的实现。这种解决方案意味着特朗普和普京会像1945年的富兰克林·D·罗斯福与约瑟夫·斯大林那样共同决定乌克兰的未来。
The EU and its allies, particularly Britain and Norway, have thus far managed to build enough collective leverage to thwart the Yalta option, whereby Trump and Putin would come together like Franklin D Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin in 1945 to settle Ukraine’s future between them.
然而，欧盟和英国只有在愿意为乌克兰提供资金和武器支持的情况下，才能继续在谈判桌上保持发言权。泽连斯基已经明确表示，乌克兰至少还需要700亿欧元（约合580亿英镑）的援助。如果欧洲的决心出现动摇（比如如果玛丽娜·勒庞在明年四月赢得法国总统选举），俄罗斯和美国很可能会无视欧洲的利益，届时“雅尔塔式解决方案”的风险就会再次出现。
But the EU and Britain will only keep their places at the table for as long as they are prepared to fund and arm Ukraine – and Zelensky has already said that he needs at least another €70bn (£58bn). If Europe’s resolve were to slip, perhaps if Marine Le Pen wins the French presidency next April, then Russia and the US would gladly ignore its interests, and the danger of a Yalta settlement would return.
只要特朗普坚持自己选择的和平手段（即不断向泽连斯基施压，直到乌克兰屈服），普京几乎肯定会继续要求获取额外的领土（约2000平方英里的土地）。只要欧洲继续支持乌克兰，泽连斯基就能保持坚定的立场。目前，这种僵局尚未被任何人打破。
For as long as Trump sticks to his chosen method for bringing peace – hammering Zelensky until Ukraine gives in – then Putin will almost certainly persist in demanding the extra 2,000 sq miles. For as long as Europe backs Ukraine, Zelensky can stand firm. This is the logjam which no one has succeeded in breaking.