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伊朗威胁:若美以再次发动攻击,将打击海湾七国石油和人工智能设施Iran threatens oil and AI facilities across seven Gulf countries if US and Israel renew attacks

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穆赫辛·雷扎伊表示,不可能存在这样一种安排:伊朗经济遭受攻击,而支撑这些攻击的经济架构却得以豁免。摄影:穆罕默德·萨利姆/路透社Mohsen Rezaei said there could be no arrangement in which Iran’s economy came under attack while the economic architecture enabling those attacks remained immune. Photograph: Mohammed Salem/Reuters

伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫森·雷扎伊表示,如果美国和以色列再次发动攻击,伊朗将打击海湾地区多达7个国家的石油设施、海底电缆、数据中心以及人工智能相关设施。

Iran will strike oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI facilities across as many as seven countries in the Gulf in the event of a fresh US-Israeli attack, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, has said.

穆罕默德·加利巴夫(Mohammad Ghalibaf)是伊朗与美国谈判以结束两国冲突的强硬派领导人,其顾问梅赫迪·穆罕默迪(Mehdi Mohammadi)称,唐纳德·特朗普和本杰明·内塔尼亚胡原则上已同意发动攻击,但无法保证此次行动能够取得成功。穆罕默迪补充道:“我们将下一次冲突视为对伊朗生存的威胁;如果战争再次爆发,那将意味着伊朗的灭亡。我们的战略是‘零容忍’(即绝不接受任何侵犯伊朗核心利益的行动)。”

Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Mohammad Ghalibaf, the hardliner who led Iran's negotiations with the US to end the conflict between the two countries, said Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed in principle on an attack, but could not guarantee a successful outcome. He added: "We see the next conflict as an existential threat. The third war in two years means a threat to existence. Our strategy is 'zero red lines'." Mohammadi said: "We break the temporal and spatial dimensions of the conflict. The war will continue longer and in a wider geographical area than the enemy anticipates."

穆罕默迪还表示:“伊朗将打破冲突的时间和空间限制——战争将持续更长时间,且影响范围将超出敌人的预期。”伊朗实施此类行动的能力,以及它可能从中国或俄罗斯获得的任何非官方支持,都将成为美国是否决定重启战争的关键因素。

Iran's ability to mount such operations, including any unofficial help it receives from China or Russia, will be a key factor in any American decision to restart the war. Iranian media reported that Rezaei had declared: "In the event of a war, cables, datacentres and artificial intelligence facilities could also be targeted.

一名戴着唐纳德·特朗普面具的伊朗演员在德黑兰塔杰里什广场一块广告牌旁的模拟牢房内摆姿势。摄影:法新社/盖蒂图片社An Iranian actor wearing a Donald Trump mask poses inside a mock prison cell attached to a billboard in Tajrish Square in Tehran. Photograph: AFP/Getty

据伊朗媒体报道,雷扎伊曾宣称:“如果战争爆发,海底电缆、数据中心和人工智能设施也可能成为攻击目标。如果冲突再次发生,我们将有更周全的应对计划。”

If the conflict breaks out again, we will have a broader plan. "There can be no arrangement in which Iran's economic lifelines come under attack while the economic architecture enabling those attacks is considered untouched and immune."

有报道称,美国的军事顾问已经制定了详细的攻击目标清单,计划在11月3日美国中期选举后,由美国和以色列联合发动对伊朗的攻击。

According to recent reports in US media, US military advisers have drawn up a detailed list of targets for a fresh joint US-Israel assault on Iran to be implemented after the US midterm elections on 3 November.

来自三个欧洲国家的外交部长,以及土耳其、沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和埃及的外交部长将于周五在伊斯坦布尔召开会议,共同商讨与伊朗、也门和巴勒斯坦危机相关的应对策略。目前,在德黑兰和华盛顿,人们普遍认为进一步爆发战争已成为一种可能的现实。

Foreign ministers from three European countries, as well as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt, will meet in Istanbul on Friday to establish agreed policies on the linked Iranian, Yemini and Palestinian crises. There is an alarm that a further war is now the working assumption in Tehran and Washington.

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)的海军部门声称,周三他们同时袭击了四艘试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的商船。据称,这些船只正在执行“船对船”的石油运输任务。

The naval services of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claimed to have simultaneously struck four commercial ships seeking to navigate through the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. The ships were said to be transferring oil from ship to ship.

特朗普的国防部长皮特·赫格塞思周一在以色列会见了内塔尼亚胡,讨论美以联合攻击的时机和目的。摄影:塞缪尔·科鲁姆/联合采访团/CNP/ShutterstockPete Hegseth, Trump’s defence secretary, met Netanyahu on Monday in Israel to discuss the timing and purpose of a joint US-Israel attack. Photograph: Samuel Corum/Pool/CNP/Shutterstock

IRGC还声称另有三艘船在通过该海峡时触雷而受损。目前尚无独立机构能够证实这些船只确实遭到袭击;不过由于美国报道称以色列和伊朗可能即将再次发动联合军事行动,布伦特原油价格飙升至每桶113.4美元,创下近期新高。

The IRGC claimed a further three ships had been struck when they hit mines in the strait. There was no independent verification that this number of ships were hit, but Brent crude oil was trading at $113.4 a barrel, a recent high, propelled by US reports of the imminent renewed joint Israeli-Iranian assault on Iran.

在过去四个月里,特朗普曾七次表示放弃对伊朗采取军事行动。然而,由于外交谈判陷入僵局,美国政府官员开始讨论可能的新军事行动方案,这些行动的目标包括伊朗的导弹设施、石油设施以及核设施。

Trump has backed away from striking Iran again seven times in the past four months. However, a deadlock in diplomatic negotiations has led US government officials to brief about a potential new military campaign that would target missile sites, oil installations and nuclear sites.

双方的军事挑衅行为与美国和以色列联合进行的军事演习同时发生;据新闻网站Axios报道,本周早些时候还有数十架以色列飞机在伊朗边境附近飞行。伊朗中部阿拉克市一家大型铝厂发生的火灾表明,该国境内可能存在破坏活动。

The sabre-rattling by both sides has coincided with extended joint-training manoeuvres by the US and Israel, including practice runs over Iraq. Dozens of Israeli planes also flew close to the Iranian border earlier this week, according to the news site Axios. A big fire at a large aluminium factory in Arak in central Iran suggests sabotage operations may be under way inside the country.

周一,内塔尼亚胡在以色列会见了美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯,讨论联合军事行动的时机和目的,以及这一行动可能对内塔尼亚胡连任前景产生的政治影响。据报道,内塔尼亚胡表示他更希望伊朗先发动攻击。

Netanyahu met the US secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth in Israel on Monday to discuss the timing and purpose of a joint attack, including the possible political implications for Netanyahu's chances of re-election. Netanyahu would prefer it if Iran attacked first, he reportedly told Hegseth.

伊朗人走过一块反美广告牌,牌上描绘了一名伊朗军人将脚踩在一艘美国无人潜航器上。摄影:阿贝丁·塔赫尔肯纳雷赫/欧洲新闻图片社Iranians walk past an anti-US billboard depicting a member of Iran's military placing a foot on a US unmanned underwater vehicle. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

美国方面的军事部署预计将在11月初完成;届时,可能会有更多海军舰艇(包括三艘航空母舰)、数千名海军陆战队员、战斗机以及特种作战部队被部署到中东地区。

A US military buildup is due to be completed by early November, before a possible newly Democrat-inclined Congress or Senate take their seats in January. Trump intends to have stationed three aircraft carriers, thousands of marines, fighter jets and special operations forces in the Middle East by November.

雷扎·纳斯里(Reza Nasri)是一位与伊朗外交部关系密切的国际律师,他表示:“如果第三次战争爆发,其影响将无法得到控制。该地区的电网、海水淡化厂、炼油厂和港口都将遭到破坏;数千万人将面临缺水或停电的困境,大量难民将从阿拉伯国家涌入欧洲。”

Reza Nasri, an international lawyer close to the Iranian foreign ministry, said: "A third wave of war would not stay contained. Power grids, desalination plants, refineries and ports across the region would burn. Tens of millions would be left without water or electricity, and a massive wave of refugees would move from Arab countries towards Europe.

法尔斯通讯社(Fars News Agency,该机构与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)关系密切)报道称,伊朗已向各军事部队下达指令,明确指出:“如果发生新的大规模战争,且涉及针对伊朗官员的暗杀行为或平民伤亡,伊朗的反击措施将不仅限于军事目标,还会包括政治目标。”

"Hormuz would close completely, oil would spike, and the global economy would tip into recession. Israel's economy, already bled by mobilisation and missile fire, would not survive a prolonged war of attrition. And Trump would be trapped in a crisis that consumes the rest of his presidency and leaves a wreck for his successors," Nasri said.

10月14日,悬挂新加坡国旗的“GFS Pride”号在阿曼沿海霍尔木兹海峡附近沉没后,集装箱和残骸漂浮在水面上。合成图:路透社Containers and debris float in the water after the Singapore-flagged GFS Pride sank near the strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman on 14 October. Composite: Reuters

本周,来自伊朗和巴基斯坦的调解人员再次讨论了那些老生常谈的停火方案——这些方案虽然内容相似,但具体细节已有所调整。其中一项提议是:伊朗同意交出被冻结的数十亿美元资产,以换取西方解除对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁;同时允许联合国武器核查人员进入伊朗的核设施,并允许伊朗将其高浓缩铀库存出口到第三方国家。

Fars news agency, which is close to the IRGC, said Iran had issued directives to its various military and operational units "stipulating that in the event of a new widespread war, involving the assassination of Iranian officials and the killing of civilians, the Iranian response will not be limited to military targets, but will also include political targets". Mediators from Iran and Pakistan this week again explored familiar if reconfigured options for a ceasefire, including proposals that Iran receive billions in frozen assets in return for lifting its blockade of the strait, allowing UN weapons inspectors to view its bombed nuclear sites and to export its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country.

伊朗方面表示愿意在七天内解除对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁,并就核问题展开谈判,但前提是美国必须先解除对伊朗的制裁。

Iran has offered to end the Hormuz blockade within seven days and start talks on its nuclear file, but only if preconditions are met first including lifting US sanctions.

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