强烈的厄尔尼诺现象已经在加剧干旱和洪水，推高食品价格并助长野火。根据研究非营利组织伯克利地球周四发布的月度分析，这一现象预计将使2026年成为有记录以来最热的一年，超过2024年。
A strong El Niño is already worsening droughts and floods that are pushing up food prices and fueling wildfires. The event is now expected to make 2026 the hottest year on record, overtaking 2024, according to a monthly analysis released Thursday by the research nonprofit Berkeley Earth.
另一家科学机构美国国家海洋和大气管理局预测，2026年仍不太可能取代2024年的高温纪录，但会以微弱差距位居第二。
Another scientific body, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, forecasts that 2026 is still unlikely to supplant the 2024 heat record but will come a close second.
厄尔尼诺是全球天气的一种自然特征，表现为热带东太平洋偶尔升温，它通过在大气中推入更多海洋热量和水分，持续数月暂时加剧人类造成的全球变暖。当前的模式与1997至1998年和2015至2016年历史上强烈的厄尔尼诺现象相似，那两次给印度尼西亚、菲律宾和美洲部分地区带来干旱，给美国南部和西部带来潮湿天气。只不过现在更热了。
El Niño — a natural feature of global weather marked by occasional heating of the eastern tropical Pacific — temporarily exacerbates human-caused global warming by pushing more ocean heat and moisture into the atmosphere for months. The current pattern is similar to previous, historically strong El Niños in 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016, which brought dryness to Indonesia and the Philippines and parts of the Americas, and wet conditions to the US South and West. Only now, it’s hotter.
伯克利地球的研究科学家泽克·豪斯法特说，有一些证据表明太平洋在一千年里没有产生过这样的条件，他提到气候研究人员最近辩论的一个话题。“这很可能是有史以来一千年来最强的厄尔尼诺事件，”他说。
There’s some evidence that the Pacific hasn’t produced such conditions in a millennium, said Zeke Hausfather, research scientist at Berkeley Earth, citing a topic that climate researchers have recently debated. “It may well be possible that this could be the strongest El Niño event in a thousand years,” he said.
伯克利地球是维护全球温度数据集的几家科学组织之一，所有这些组织报告的发现往往彼此相差不超过十分之一度。欧盟的哥白尼气候变化服务局截至9月的数据显示，2026年是迄今为止第二热的年份。
Berkeley Earth is one of several scientific organizations that maintain global temperature datasets, all of which tend to report findings that fall within a tenth of a degree of each other. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, with data through September, shows 2026 as the second hottest year to date.
伯克利地球在1月估计2026年超过2024年成为最热年份的概率为12%，到5月这一概率已经下降。但厄尔尼诺的强度在发展过程中让许多人感到意外。6月的 onset 迅速扭转了概率，现在为96%，而厄尔尼诺可能要到12月才达到顶峰。
Berkeley Earth in January assigned a 12% probability that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year, and the chances had dropped by May. But the strength of the El Niño took many by surprise as it developed. The onset in June quickly flipped the odds, which are now 96%, and the El Niño may not peak until December.
由于大气温度的变化滞后于厄尔尼诺现象的影响，科学家们确信2027年的气温将会比今年更高。
Because atmospheric temperatures lag El Niño, scientists are confident 2027 will be even hotter than this year.
上个月是全球第二热的九月，气温比工业化前的平均水平高出1.65摄氏度。这一数值仅比2023年低0.06摄氏度；2023年的全球平均气温异常高，以至于罗伯特·罗德（Robert Rohde）将那一年称为“简直令人难以置信的极端高温年份”。该研究小组的首席科学家罗伯特·罗德表示：“即使气温没有达到2023年的极端水平，现在依然非常炎热。”
Last month was the second warmest September globally, at 1.65C above the pre-industrial norm. That’s just a negligible 0.06C behind 2023, when the global average temperature was so abnormally high that Hausfather memorably dubbed it “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.”“It is still quite hot, even if it’s not quite that bananas,” said Robert Rohde, the group’s chief scientist.
2026年9月也是除2023年9月和2026年8月之外，全球气温偏离正常水平最严重的月份。共有53个国家创下了新的高温纪录。包括西班牙、葡萄牙和意大利在内的西南欧地区受到了异常高温的严重影响；新加坡、阿拉伯联合酋长国和布基纳法索等8个国家的气温涨幅超过了0.5摄氏度。
September 2026 also registered the highest departure from the norm for any month other than September 2023 and August 2026. Fifty-three countries set national heat records. Southwestern Europe, including Spain, Portugal and Italy, were particularly hard hit by aberrant late summer temperatures. Singapore, United Arab Emirates and Burkina Faso were among eight countries that broke national records by more than 0.5C.
厄尔尼诺现象本身是指东太平洋热带海域的海面温度异常升高的现象，其强度已经超过了2015年和1877年创下的历史纪录。
The El Niño itself, which is measured as the sea-surface temperature in a particular eastern tropical Pacific region, surpassed monthly marks reached previously only in 2015 and 1877.