在养牛业腹地，一个福音派基督教据点的选民情绪，有助于解释为何这位左翼总统在周日的选举中处于劣势。
Deep in cattle country, voter sentiments in an evangelical stronghold help explain why the country’s leftist president is the underdog in Sunday’s election.
对巴西左翼而言，这仿佛是末日降临。10月4日，右翼总统候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗（Flávio Bolsonaro）表现优于民调预测，以微弱优势领先左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva）。
It felt like doomsday for the Brazilian left. On Oct. 4, Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing presidential candidate, outperformed polls and edged ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist.
这一微弱差距不足以避免两位候选人在周日进入第二轮决选，但足以在圣保罗、里约热内卢等大城市的进步派圈子里引发焦虑与反思，并迫使卢拉竞选团队进行重组。
The narrow margin was not enough to avoid a runoff on Sunday between the two candidates, but it was plenty to set off hand-wringing and soul-searching across progressive bubbles in big cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, and a reorganization in Mr. Lula’s campaign.
前往纳努克（Nanuque）一探究竟，这个位于里约热内卢以北500英里的养牛重镇、教会氛围浓厚的小城，每年都会举办盛大的“为耶稣游行”，民众步行参与；国庆日则骑马巡游。这里的景象为卢拉表现平平、博尔索纳罗声势大涨提供了线索。养牛业是纳努克的支柱产业。
A visit to Nanuque, a cattle-raising, churchgoing town 500 miles north of Rio de Janeiro, where crowds turn out on foot for an annual march for Jesus and on horseback for the nation’s independence day, offers clues to Mr. Lula’s lackluster showing and Mr. Bolsonaro’s rise. Beef is big business in Nanuque.
塞思·库格尔/《纽约时报》摄 这座人口3.5万的小镇坐落于风向标州米纳斯吉拉斯州，自1988年巴西军事独裁结束、民主回归以来，该州在每次总统大选中都支持了最终的胜利者。
Seth Kugel for The New York Times The town of 35,000 sits in the bellwether state of Minas Gerais, which has backed the winner in every presidential election since 1988, when democracy returned to Brazil after a military dictatorship.
在2022年大选中，纳努克（发音 nah-NEW-key）是巴西5569个市镇中票数最为胶着的一个，博尔索纳罗之父、时任总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）仅以一票之差险胜。（雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗在那次选举中败给卢拉，后因试图留任而密谋政变被判有罪。）在2026年首轮投票中，小博尔索纳罗在该镇领先两个百分点，与其在全国范围内的领先幅度相同。
In the 2022 race, Nanuque, pronounced nah-NEW-key, was the most closely divided of Brazil’s 5,569 municipalities, with Mr. Bolsonaro’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, winning by one vote. (Jair Bolsonaro lost that election to Mr. Lula and was convicted of plotting a coup after trying to hold onto power.) In 2026’s first round, the younger Bolsonaro finished ahead by two percentage points, the same margin he claimed in Brazil as a whole.
小博尔索纳罗能够赢下此类城镇——扎根于农业、且拥有强大福音派基督教影响力——促成了其在首轮投票中的强劲表现。
Mr. Bolsonaro’s ability to win similar towns — rooted in agriculture and with a strong Evangelical Christian presence — contributed to his strong first round showing.
根据巴西大学热图利奥·瓦加斯基金会政治数据科学家马可·法加内洛的分析，他在拥有庞大农业部门、福音派基督徒比例高且人口少于5万的城镇中赢得了79%的支持率。2022年首轮大选中，雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗在这类城镇中获得了53%的支持率。
He won 79 percent of towns with a large agricultural sector, a high percentage of evangelical Christians and that have less than 50,000 residents, according to an analysis by Marco Faganello a political data scientist at Fundação Getulio Vargas, a Brazilian university. Jair Bolsonaro won 53 percent of such towns in 2022’s first round.
在纳努克对卡车司机、养牛场主、农场工人、企业领袖和公务员等数十名选民的采访中，那些抛弃卢拉的人提到了未兑现的经济承诺、他过去的腐败丑闻以及对医疗保健的不满等原因。
terviews with scores of voters in Nanuque, including truck drivers, cattle ranchers, farmworkers, business leaders and civil servants, those who have abandoned Mr. Lula cited unfulfilled economic promises, his past corruption scandals and their frustration with health care, among other reasons.
纳努克位于米纳斯吉拉斯州，这是巴西东南部的政治重镇，自20世纪80年代巴西重返民主以来，没有哪位总统能在不赢下该州的情况下当选。
Nanuque is in Minas Gerais, the powerhouse political state in Brazil’s southeast that no president has been elected without winning since Brazil’s return to democracy in the 1980s.
虽然左翼阵营中许多人仍坚定支持卢拉，但也有以前投过他票的人表示，对这位80岁的现任总统竞选第四个任期感到疲惫。他的工人党在过去24年里执政了18年。
While many on the left remain staunch supporters of Mr. Lula, others who had voted for him before expressed fatigue over an 80-year-old incumbent running for a fourth term. His Workers’ Party has been in power for 18 of the last 24 years.
以前投过卢拉票的厨师瓦尔迪雷内·桑托斯·莫拉承认了他的成就，包括推出了帮助穷人的项目。但她说，现在她“已经受够他了”。采咖啡工热雷米亚斯·阿尔维斯·德索萨压低声音，不想让妻子听见他说要投票给博尔索纳罗。他说，他把年轻的博尔索纳罗和他父亲的严厉打击犯罪政策联系在一起。
Valdirene Santos Moura, a cook who has voted for Mr. Lula before, acknowledged his accomplishments, including introducing programs that helped the poor. But now, she said, she was “tired of him already.”Geremias Alves de Souza, a coffee picker, dropped his voice so his wife would not hear him say he was voting for Mr. Bolsonaro. He said he associates the younger Mr. Bolsonaro with his father’s tough on crime policies.
其他选民表示，他们支持博尔索纳罗不是基于他的履历——他们说不熟悉——而是出于对雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的喜爱。一些人说，他们只是厌倦了政治，计划在周日弃权。
Other voters said their support for Mr. Bolsonaro was based not on his track record — which they said they were unfamiliar with — but on their affection for Jair Bolsonaro. Some said they were simply fed up with politics and were planning to abstain on Sunday.
其中之一是45岁的若韦尼尔多·卡瓦略，他经营一家初创公司，利用无人机投放寄生蜂攻击危害甘蔗田的钻心虫。
One is Jovenildo Carvalho, 45, who runs a start-up that uses drones to deploy wasps to attack caterpillars that ravage sugar cane fields.
若韦尼尔多·卡瓦略经营一家利用投放寄生蜂无人机对抗甘蔗钻心虫的初创公司。
Jovenildo Carvalho runs a start-up that uses wasp-deploying drones to fight sugar cane borer caterpillars.
卡瓦略在没有电的环境中长大，大学时期穿着切·格瓦拉T恤，他说对两位候选人领导国家的能力都没有信任，并对巴西严重两极分化的政治格局感到沮丧。
Mr. Carvalho, who grew up with no electricity and wore Che Guevara T-shirts in college, said he has no faith in either candidate’s ability to lead the country, and was frustrated by Brazil’s deeply polarized political landscape.
“希望看到的巴西，没有如今这种狂热和盲目激情的面纱，”他说。
“I’d like to see Brazil without the veil of fanaticism and blind passion that it has today,” he said.
大企业怨气很重 巴西的农业企业包括耕作、养牛、肉类加工厂和乙醇蒸馏厂，已成为庞然大物，占该国经济的四分之一。巴西农产品出口有史以来首次可能很快超过美国。
Big business has big grudges Agribusiness in Brazil, which includes farming, cattle ranching, meatpacking plants and ethanol distilleries, has become a behemoth, accounting for a quarter of the country’s economy For the first time, Brazil may soon surpass the United States in agricultural exports.
该行业的领袖们是卢拉最大的批评者之一，他们指责卢拉的高利率、环境法规以及伊朗战争期间削减乙醇需求的汽油补贴。
The sector’s leaders are among Mr. Lula’s biggest detractors, criticizing him over high interest rates, environmental regulations and gas subsidies that have reduced ethanol demand during the Iran war.
“如果是卢拉对阵一条流浪狗，大家都会投流浪狗一票，”路易斯·丹尼尔·席尔瓦·罗查说，他的家族在纳努克郊外拥有大型糖厂和乙醇蒸馏厂DASA，雇佣数百人。
“If it were Lula against a stray dog, everyone would vote for the stray dog,” said Luiz Daniel Silva Rocha, whose family owns DASA, a large sugar mill and ethanol distillery outside Nanuque that employs hundreds of people.
当地企业领袖最大的攻击目标是卢拉的标志性福利项目“家庭补助计划”，该计划向低收入家庭发放现金补助。巴西人都同意该计划帮助数百万人摆脱了极端贫困，但现在一些人认为它成了给那些并非财务绝望者的施舍。
The biggest target for local business leaders is Mr. Lula’s signature welfare program, known as Bolsa Família, which provides cash transfers to low income families. Brazilians agree that it has helped pull millions out of extreme poverty, but some now consider it a handout to those who aren’t financially desperate.
“在今天的巴西，政策是奖励那些不工作的人，”DASA总经理安杰洛·马尔西奥·索萨·席尔瓦说。
“In Brazil today, the policy is to reward those who don’t work,” said Ângelo Márcio Sousa Silva, DASA’s general manager.
根据政府数据，纳努克近3000个家庭领取现金补助，企业领袖称这导致他们难以招工。DASA和镇上最大雇主——一家肉类加工厂——共有约120个全职空缺，导致工厂无法满负荷运转。
Nearly 3,000 families in Nanuque receive cash transfers, according to government data, and business leaders say it has made it hard for them to fill jobs. Between DASA and the town’s largest employer, a meatpacking plant, there are about 120 full-time vacancies, leaving the plants operating below capacity.
DASA总经理安杰洛·马尔西奥·索萨·席尔瓦，DASA是纳努克郊外的一家大型糖厂和乙醇蒸馏厂。
Ângelo Márcio Sousa Silva, the general manager of DASA, a large sugar mill and ethanol distillery outside Nanuque.
“家庭补助”计划反复被提及，是人们投票给两位候选人的主要驱动力，远超城市精英阶层主导的选举话题，如搅动巴西联邦最高法院的丑闻，或对美国干涉拉美选举的担忧。
The Bolsa Família program came up repeatedly as a driving force behind people’s votes for both candidates, far more than topics that dominate election talk among urban elites, like a scandal roiling Brazil’s Supreme Court or worries about U.S. interference in Latin American elections.
在非正规部门工作——作为农场临时工或家政清洁工——但仍领取现金补助的人，依然忠于卢拉。
People who work in the informal sector — as day laborers on farms or cleaning houses — but still receive cash benefits remain loyal to Mr. Lula.
莱蒂西娅·席尔瓦·德·阿尔梅达，33岁，便是其中之一。她从事季节性采摘咖啡工作，日薪24美元。她还通过现金转移支付计划每月领取150美元，尽管她表示这笔钱并非必需。“如果今天停发，我过得也行，”她说。
Letícia Silva de Almeida, 33, is among those. She works seasonally helping harvest coffee and earns $24 per day. She also receives $150 a month through the cash transfer program, even though she said that money was not essential. “If they cut it off today, I’d be OK,” she said.
这种心态激怒了其他人。家政工塔蒂亚内·索萨·达·席尔瓦说，朋友劝她少报收入以符合领取现金补助的资格，但她基于原则拒绝了。
That mind-set infuriates others. Tatiane Souza da Silva, a housekeeper, said friends urged her to understate her income to qualify for the cash program, but she has refused on principle.
“我看到身体健康的年轻女性——男性也有——拒绝工作，”她说。“这最终会损害经济。”曾是卢拉选民的她，计划周日投票给博尔索纳罗。
“I see young women in good health — men too — refusing to work,” she said. “That ends up hurting the economy.”Once a Lula voter, she plans to vote for Mr. Bolsonaro on Sunday.
免费医疗，却无医生可看 卢拉曾称巴西的免费公共医疗体系是“全球医疗杰作之一”。
Free health care, but no doctors Mr. Lula has called Brazil’s free public health system “one of the masterpieces of health care worldwide.’’
在纳努克，鲜有人会用这个词。许多人抱怨要在遥远的城市长时间等待专科医生看诊，尽管一年前，卢拉推出了一个旨在帮助医疗资源匮乏城镇的项目，名为“现在有专科医生了”。本月在里约热内卢举行的支持卢拉连任竞选集会上，一名巴西公共医疗支持者手持广受欢迎的疫苗接种吉祥物。
That is not a word many in Nanuque would use. Many complained of long waits for specialists in faraway cities, even though a year ago, Mr. Lula launched a program meant to help underserved towns called “Now There Are Specialists.”A support of Brazilian public health care, featuring a popular vaccination mascot, during a rally in support of Mr. Lula’s re-election bid in Rio de Janeiro this month.
皮拉尔·奥利瓦雷斯/路透社“在医疗方面，我们需要政客们看到我们，”41岁的安娜·保拉·罗德里格斯·多斯·桑托斯说，她正在采购食材，靠烹制并出售每份6美元的午餐维生。
Pilar Olivares/Reuters“We need the politicians to see us, when it comes to health care,” said Ana Paula Rodrigues dos Santos, 41, who was shopping for the lunches she cooks and sells for $6 each to make a living.
她说她需要切除胆囊，但解释说该镇的公立医院缺乏重症监护室，她的医生告诉她，由于她的肥胖增加了并发症的风险，她可能需要重症监护室。
She said she needs her gall bladder removed but explained that the town’s public hospital lacks an intensive care unit, which her doctors have told her she may need since her obesity increases the risk of complications.
她说，她已经在一家距离三小时车程的城市医院的等候名单上等了近三年。多斯桑托斯女士称自己是一名独立选民，倾向于支持博尔索纳罗。
She has been on a waiting list at a hospital in a city three hours away for nearly three years, she said. Ms. dos Santos described herself as an independent who was leaning toward Mr. Bolsonaro.
“一直在向左、向左、向左走，而左派没有为巴西做任何事，”她说。“我们必须换新人。”祈祷与政治右翼对选民的吸引力增加，不仅源于对卢拉日益增长的不满，也受宗教驱动。自1991年以来，巴西福音派基督徒占人口的比例已增加两倍（即增至三倍），福音派教会成员严重偏向保守。
“It’s been going left, left, left and the left didn’t do anything for Brazil,” she said. “We have to put in new people.”Prayers and Politics The right’s increased appeal among voters is not just fueled by growing frustration with Mr. Lula. It is also driven by religion. The percentage of Brazil’s population that is evangelical Christian has tripled since 1991, and members of Evangelical congregations lean heavily conservative.
在纳努克，无论富裕还是贫困社区，遍布数十家福音派教会，一些牧师宣扬反对堕胎和同性恋。
Dozens of Evangelical churches dot rich and poor neighborhoods in Nanuque, where some pastors preach opposition to abortion and homosexuality.
在新生命福音派教会——一个相对富裕的教会——主教罗布森·梅里·泰谢拉·法里亚斯表示，他认为他的近300名成员几乎都会支持博尔索纳罗竞选总统。
At New Life Evangelical Church, a relatively wealthy congregation, the pastor, Bishop Robson Merry Teixeira Farias, said he believed nearly all of his 300 members would support Mr. Bolsonaro for president.
据牧师和成员称，即使在条件较差的教会中，对博尔索纳罗的支持依然强劲。
Even within less well off congregations, support for Mr. Bolsonaro was still strong, according to pastors and members.
周日晚间，在新生命福音派教会——一个较富裕的教会，主教罗布森·梅里·泰谢拉·法里亚斯表示，他的大多数成员将支持博尔索纳罗——举行礼拜。
Sunday evening services at New Life Evangelical Church, a wealthier congregation where Bishop Robson Merry Teixeira Farias said most of his members would support Mr. Bolsonaro.
根据巴西法律，宗教领袖不得从讲坛上背书，但被称为梅里主教的梅里表示，可以通过宣扬与特定候选人一致的保守价值观来传达偏好。“我们不为个人站台，我们为事业站台，”他说。
Under Brazilian law, religious leaders cannot make endorsements from the pulpit, but Bishop Merry, as he is known, suggested that preferences can be telegraphed by promoting conservative values that align with specific candidates. “We do not champion men, we champion causes,” he said.
在一个没有商场或电影院的小镇上，教会是社交生活的中心，会众穿着整齐前来，渴望社交不亚于渴望祈祷。
In a town with no mall or cinema, churches are central to social life, and congregants arrive well dressed and as eager to socialize as to pray.
周日，在教堂礼拜结束后，他们将在纳努克的 21 个投票站迎来第二次社交机会。
On Sunday, after church services, they will have a second chance to socialize — at Nanuque’s 21 polling stations.
“随着选举临近，像他这样的‘领袖’有责任传递他们的愿景，”梅里主教说。“羊群总是试图模仿牧师，”他补充道。里约热内卢的西尔维娅·里贝罗参与了本文的报道。
“As the election approaches, it is the responsibility of leaders” like him, Bishop Merry said, “to pass along their vision.”“The sheep always try to imitate the pastor,” he added. Silvia Ribeiro contributed reporting from Rio de Janeiro.