Analysts say election will reveal whether Sofia maintains its Euro-Atlantic course or adopts a more cautious approach toward Russia as Black Sea security concerns intensify Bulgaria's upcoming presidential election is emerging as a test of the country's geopolitical direction, with growing security concerns in the Black Sea, shifting policies toward Ukraine and questions over relations with Russia placing foreign policy at the center of the campaign. The first round of voting will take place on Oct. 25, followed by a likely runoff on Nov. 1.

The race has effectively narrowed to incumbent President Iliana Yotova and former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov, who is backed by opposition parties.

Yotova is supported by Prime Minister Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria party, which secured an absolute majority of 131 seats in the 240-member parliament in April, ending years of political fragmentation.

Speaking to Anadolu, Stoyan Panov, a senior research fellow at the Sofia-based Institute for Global Analytics, said the election was taking place amid several interconnected challenges, including economic pressures, political uncertainty and increasing geopolitical instability in the Black Sea region.

He described foreign policy and security as the most significant factors distinguishing the two leading candidates.

"Gyurov is very pro-Euro-Atlantic oriented, pro-EU, pro-reformist oriented, while Yotova takes a rather ambiguous position," Panov said. He argued that the election would offer voters a choice between different approaches to Bulgaria's international positioning at a time when regional security developments are increasingly difficult to ignore.

Panov said recent drone attacks on four merchant ships in Bulgaria's maritime zones had become a particularly important issue in the presidential campaign. Bulgarian authorities initially said there was insufficient evidence to identify the party responsible for the attacks.

Panov described the government's response as an example of what he considered an overly cautious approach toward Moscow.

Different approaches to Ukraine Since taking office in May, the government has stopped military deliveries to Ukraine following 13 aid packages, withdrawn from the Coalition of the Willing in July and opposed the EU's 21st sanctions package against Russia.

These decisions have raised questions about whether Sofia is moving toward a more cautious foreign policy approach, despite its membership in NATO and the EU.

Mariyan Sabev, a senior security analyst at the Sofia-based Center for the Study of Democracy, told Anadolu that Bulgaria's membership in both organizations was firmly established and that no president could change the country's international alliances unilaterally.

However, he said the president could influence how consistently Bulgaria upholds its commitments, particularly when they involve political or economic costs.

Under the Bulgarian Constitution, the government directs foreign policy, while the president represents the state internationally and has responsibilities relating to defense and national security.

These responsibilities give the presidency influence over diplomatic messaging, defense priorities and the country's public position on international developments.

Sabev said Yotova's longstanding political partnership with Radev made her approach particularly relevant to understanding the government's broader geopolitical orientation.

Although Yotova previously served as a Bulgarian member of the European Parliament, she has at times been perceived as Eurosceptic because of her statements and positions concerning Russia, according to him.

Sabev pointed to Gyurov's record as caretaker prime minister, highlighting his approval of a bilateral security agreement between Bulgaria and Ukraine in March.

Gyurov would likely place greater emphasis on Euro-Atlantic commitments and cooperation with European partners, he added.

Despite the growing prominence of foreign policy, the election is also being shaped by domestic economic concerns and dissatisfaction with political institutions.

Inflation, which exceeded 5.1% in August, has also contributed to public dissatisfaction.

Election follows historic political shift The presidential election is also taking place after a major transformation in Bulgaria's domestic political landscape.

Radev resigned as president in January to enter party politics and subsequently led Progressive Bulgaria to a landslide victory in the April parliamentary election.

His former vice president, Yotova, assumed the presidency and is now seeking a full mandate.

However, analysts say the concentration of political power in one camp could have important implications for the country's democratic institutions and foreign policy decision-making.

Panov said the election would test whether Bulgaria could maintain effective checks and balances if the government and presidency were controlled by the same political force. "Is it wise to put all eggs in one basket?" he asked, referring to the possibility of Progressive Bulgaria controlling both the government and the presidency. He said some voters might prefer a divided political structure to ensure that the president could act independently and scrutinize the government's decisions.

He said a Gyurov victory would not necessarily create political instability, but could provide a check on the government's approach to domestic and foreign policy. "For the first time in many many years, the government and the presidency could end up being led by the same political camp," Sabev said.

A Yotova victory could improve coordination between the presidency and government on issues such as defense and foreign policy, but would also raise questions about institutional independence, according to him.

"This election will test whether Bulgaria's system of checks and balances works when power is no longer divided...

Will the president still use the powers to scrutinize the government when it matters if they are in the same camp?" he asked. Low turnout expected to make runoff decisive Sabev estimated that turnout could reach approximately 36%, compared with around 50.7% in the April parliamentary election.

The low participation rate would reflect both voter fatigue and the perception among some citizens that the presidential office has limited executive powers.

The latest polling cited by Sabev places Yotova in the lead, with 44.9%, compared with 24.8% for Gyurov, according to a Gallup International survey.

ov, leader of the pro-Russian Revival party, is among the other candidates but remains behind the two frontrunners.

Sabev said a runoff between Yotova and Gyurov on Nov. 1 was the most likely outcome.

Under Bulgaria's constitutional rules, a candidate must secure more than half of the valid votes in the first round, with turnout exceeding 50% of registered voters, to win outright.

The country's large diaspora and outdated electoral rolls make meeting the turnout threshold particularly difficult, analysts say.

Sabev described Yotova as the clear favorite but said the runoff could be influenced by voters who supported candidates eliminated in the first round.

Panov, meanwhile, said the outcome could be closer than expected because presidential elections give voters an opportunity to make a decision based on the individual candidates rather than party affiliation alone.