俄罗斯央行周五决定将关键利率维持在每年14%不变，指出物价压力居高不下，通胀预期持续高企。
The Bank of Russia decided on Friday to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 14% per annum, pointing to elevated price pressures and persistently high inflation expectations.
在政策声明中，该央行表示，尽管俄罗斯经济在2026年下半年以适度速度增长，但基础物价增长尚未下降，年化水平仍在5%至6%之间。
In a policy statement, the central bank noted that while the Russian economy is growing at a moderate pace in the second half of 2026, underlying price growth has not yet decreased and remains between 5% and 6% in annualized terms.
该央行将这一趋势主要归因于某些行业产能暂时下降，并补充称，总需求必须适度增长，基础通胀才能重新下降。
The bank attributed this trend primarily to a temporary reduction in production capacities in certain sectors, adding that aggregate demand must grow moderately for underlying inflation to resume its decline.
根据该央行的估计，经季节性调整的物价增长在2026年第三季度年化平均为8%，较第二季度的4.8%大幅上升。同期，核心通胀也从4.5%上升至6.2%，部分原因是包括汽车燃料在内的波动性组成部分。
According to the bank's estimates, seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 8% in annualized terms in the third quarter of 2026, rising sharply from 4.8% in the second quarter. Core inflation also increased to 6.2% from 4.5% over the same period, driven in part by volatile components such as motor fuel.
截至10月，俄罗斯年通胀率为6.8%，预计2026年将在7.1%至7.6%之间收官。
As of October, annual inflation in Russia stood at 6.8% and is projected to finish 2026 between 7.1% and 7.6%.
在基准情景下，俄罗斯央行预计关键利率2027年将在12.5%至13.5%之间，年通胀率预计明年将回到4%的目标。
Under its baseline scenario, the Bank of Russia forecasts the key rate will average between 12.5% and 13.5% in 2027, with annual inflation expected to return to its 4% target next year.
该央行警告称，中期内通胀性风险仍占主导地位，超过反通胀风险。主要风险包括供需失衡、产能收缩持续、地缘政治紧张局势，以及工资增长继续超过劳动生产率——尽管劳动力市场紧张程度逐渐缓解，失业率仍接近历史低位。
The bank warned that pro-inflationary risks still prevail over disinflationary ones in the medium term. Key risks include supply-demand imbalances, prolonged production capacity contractions, geopolitical tensions, and wage growth continuing to outpace labor productivity -- even as labor market tightness gradually eases and unemployment remains near historic lows.
声明补充称，尽管消费需求增长正在放缓，但第三季度贷款活动仍居高不下，主要由企业借款人推动。
While consumer demand growth is slowing, lending activity remained elevated in the third quarter, driven largely by corporate borrowers, the statement added.
俄罗斯央行此前自2025年6月起通过一系列降息，将政策利率从21%逐步降至14%。
The central bank had gradually lowered its policy rate from 21% to 14% through a series of rate cuts initiated in June 2025.