俄罗斯央行预计将连续第二次会议维持利率不变，因为克里姆林宫正在应对乌克兰袭击能源基础设施带来的经济后果。
Russia’s central bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged for a second straight meeting as the Kremlin battles the economic consequences of Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure.
据彭博社调查的11位经济学家预测，决策者将在周五把基准利率维持在14%。仅有一位预期降息25个基点。
Policymakers will leave the benchmark at 14% on Friday, according to the forecasts of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Only one expects a cut of 25 basis points.
基辅针对炼油厂的行动已将原油加工率推至多年低位，并引发燃料短缺，加剧了本已将通胀推高至俄罗斯央行最新年底预测之上的压力。官员原本预计工厂将在下半年逐步恢复运营，但袭击造成了新的破坏，包括最近刚恢复运营的设施。
Kyiv’s campaign against refineries has driven crude-processing rates to multi-year lows and caused fuel shortages, adding to pressures that have already pushed inflation above the Bank of Russia’s latest year-end forecast. Officials had expected plants to gradually return to service in the second half of the year, but attacks have inflicted fresh damage, including at facilities that recently resumed operations.
这使得实现央行4%的通胀目标变得愈发困难，推迟了这片饱受高借贷成本困扰多年的经济迎来更廉价资金的前景。企业一直在等待货币宽松政策，以帮助减轻债务负担、恢复利润并重振投资。
That’s making it increasingly difficult to reach the central bank’s 4% inflation target, delaying the prospect of cheaper money for an economy that has spent years grappling with high borrowing costs. Businesses have been waiting for monetary easing to help reduce their debt burden, rebuild profits and revive investment.
更高的汽油价格直接推高运输和物流成本，并波及依赖公路货运的各个行业。另一风险来自通胀预期：一旦家庭和企业预期物价将更快上涨，即使与物流问题关联不大的行业，企业也可能提价。
Higher gasoline prices feed directly into transportation and logistics costs and spread through sectors that depend on road freight. A further risk comes through inflation expectations: once households and businesses come to anticipate faster price growth, companies may raise prices even in industries with little direct exposure to logistic problems.
“俄罗斯炼油厂遭受无人机袭击的后果不容忽视，”Freedom Finance Global分析师娜塔莉亚·米尔恰科娃表示。她说，高企的汽油价格可能会继续推高通胀预期。
“The consequences of drone attacks on Russian oil refineries cannot be ignored,” said Natalia Milchakova, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Elevated gasoline prices are likely to keep pushing inflation expectations higher, she said.
据经济发展部估计，截至10月19日，年通胀率略微下降至7.15%。这仍高于俄罗斯央行对年底物价涨幅6%-7%的预测。尽管10月家庭通胀预期降至13.2%，但仍处于高位。
Annual inflation declined slightly to an estimated 7.15% as of Oct. 19, according to the Economy Ministry. That’s still above the Bank of Russia’s forecast for price growth of 6%-7% at the end of the year. While households’ inflation expectations fell to 13.2% in October, they remain elevated.
埃尔维拉·纳比乌利娜省长表示，她认为俄罗斯央行的职责在于防止通货膨胀的上升通过消费者行为和企业决策的变化引发更广泛的经济连锁反应（即“二次效应”）。
Governor Elvira Nabiullina has said she sees the Bank of Russia’s role as preventing increases from generating broader second-round effects through changes in consumer behavior and companies’ decisions amid high inflation expectations.
纳比乌利娜将在下午3点于莫斯科举行新闻发布会，此次新闻发布会将在央行于下午1:30宣布利率决议之后举行。
Nabiullina will hold a briefing at 3 p.m. in Moscow following the rate decision at 1:30 p.m.
央行在会议前一周发布的一份关于经济趋势的报告中指出：由于通胀预期依然居高不下，且俄罗斯在稳定物价方面的经验相对有限，因此其货币政策需要比那些多年来成功控制通胀的国家更加紧缩。
With those expectations still elevated and Russia having only a short track record of stable prices, monetary policy needs to be tighter than in countries with decades of success in keeping inflation low, the central bank said in a report on economic trends, published a week before the meeting.
彭博经济学的观点：“乌克兰战争再次限制了俄罗斯央行降息的空间。乌克兰无人机袭击带来的通胀溢出效应，以及财政支出可能再次超出预算的风险，威胁着俄罗斯实现2027年通胀率降至4%的目标（这一目标在过去七年中一直未能实现）。”——欧洲、中东和俄罗斯地区经济学家叶卡捷琳娜·弗拉索娃这种经济动荡的影响已经超出了能源领域。
What Bloomberg Economics Says...“The war in Ukraine is again narrowing the Bank of Russia’s room to cut rates. Inflationary spillovers from Ukrainian drone strikes and the risk of another fiscal overshoot threaten the decline toward the 4% target in 2027, after seven consecutive years of misses.” — Ekaterina Vlasova, CEE & Russia Economist The disruption is spreading beyond energy.
俄罗斯央行指出，仓库基础设施遭到袭击后，市场物流受到干扰，运输和保险成本也在上升，这些因素都可能成为推动物价上涨的额外压力来源。科技巨头Yandex和主要贷款机构Sberbank使用的数据中心也受到了影响。
The Bank of Russia has already pointed to interruptions in marketplace logistics and rising transportation and insurance costs after attacks on warehouse infrastructure as another potential source of price pressure. Data centers used by technology giant Yandex and top lender Sberbank have also been hit.
投资公司Finam的分析师奥尔加·别伦卡娅在报告中表示，此类基础设施的破坏可能会“暂时限制俄罗斯信息技术、金融和服务行业的生产能力”。她预计，到今年年底，通胀率可能会升至8%。
Disruptions to such infrastructure could “add a temporary constraint on the economy’s production capacity in information technology, finance and services,” Olga Belenkaya, an analyst at Investment Company Finam, said in a report. She estimates inflation may reach as much as 8% by the end of the year.
俄罗斯央行副行长阿列克谢·扎博特金上周表示，政策制定者将在周五的会议上重新评估不同行业产能暂时性下降对2026年和2027年经济前景的影响。
Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin said last week that policymakers would update their assessment at Friday’s meeting of how temporary losses of capacity across different industries may affect the outlook for 2026 and 2027.
阿尔法银行经济学家本周在一份报告中表示，他们预计央行的暂停将延续到本次会议之后，而决策者也可能上调明年利率预期路径。
Alfa-Bank economists said in a report this week they expect the central bank’s pause to extend beyond this meeting, while policymakers may also raise their projected path for interest rates next year.
“即使到2027年底，将物价涨幅降至4%也看起来具有挑战性，”贝连卡娅说。
“Bringing price growth back to 4% even by the end of 2027 looks challenging,” Belenkaya said.