苹果有望超越英伟达，重夺全球市值最大公司的头衔，因为科技投资者重新拥抱消费电子硬件。苹果即将发布的强劲财报可能成为推动其登顶的催化剂。周五，苹果市值为5.05万亿美元，而英伟达为5.10万亿美元。苹果股价在10月表现强劲——上涨4%——而对人工智能融资环境的担忧拖累英伟达本月下跌7%。苹果市值曾在7月短暂超越英伟达，随后又跌回其下。
Apple is set to leapfrog Nvidia and reclaim its title as the world's largest company as tech investors embrace consumer hardware again. Apple's upcoming strong earnings may be the catalyst that pushes it over the top. Apple on Friday was trading at a market value of $5.05 trillion, compared to $5.10 trillion for Nvidia. Apple shares are having a great October — up 4% — as concerns about the AI financing environment drag Nvidia down 7% for the month. Apple's market value briefly surpassed Nvidia in July, before falling back below.
新款iPhone Duo于周五上市，顾客排队抢购。围绕这一事件的热情帮助推动股价本周创下历史新高，而科技板块其余部分则表现疲软。苹果目前是我们“核心40只ETF”前五大重仓股之一。iPhone Duo是一款高端产品，起售价1999美元，最高存储版本售价超过3000美元。这与苹果近期在国际市场专注于低价机型的策略形成鲜明对比。
The new iPhone Duo hits stores Friday , with customers lining up to get their hands on it. Enthusiasm around that event has helped push the shares to an all-time high this week as the rest of the tech sector suffers. Apple is currently one of the top five holdings in our Essential 40 ETF . The iPhone Duo is a premium product, starting at $1,999 and climbing above $3,000 for the highest-storage model. That's a much different story from Apple's recent focus on lower-priced models in international markets.
需求强劲。预售于10月16日开启后几乎立即售罄，部分交货预估延至明年1月。据报道，苹果甚至已上调生产目标。这表明苹果的硬件业务正在复苏，尤其是在高端市场。财报在即尽管Duo发布令人振奋，但我更好奇苹果在11月2日发布财报时会发生什么。营收预期约为1130亿美元，此前苹果指引同比增长9%至11%。我将关注管理层对iPhone需求的表述，但苹果的服务业务可能是支撑其股价持续上涨的催化剂。
Demand has been strong. Preorders sold out almost immediately after opening Oct. 16, with some delivery estimates stretching into January. Apple has reportedly even raised its production targets. That's a sign that Apple's hardware business is coming back to life, particularly at the high end of the market. Earnings ahead As exciting as the Duo launch is, I'm curious to see what happens when Apple reports earnings on Nov. 2. Revenue expectations are around $113 billion, following Apple's earlier guidance for 9% to 11% year-over-year growth. I'll be watching what management says about iPhone demand, but Apple's services business could be the catalyst that keeps the wind in its sails.
2025财年，服务业务营收约1090亿美元，仅占苹果业务的约四分之一。然而，其毛利率约为75%，而硬件业务毛利率约为37%。
Services generated about $109 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, accounting for only about a quarter of Apple's business. Yet it carries gross margins of approximately 75%, compared with roughly 37% for hardware.
这意味着，尽管服务业务在营收中占比远低于硬件，却贡献了苹果总毛利的 40% 以上。苹果能否再次引领市场？一段时间以来，苹果更多被视为一种防御性、优质成长型投资，而英伟达等 AI 股票吸引了投资者的目光。如今苹果领跑 “美股七巨头”，市值逼近英伟达，我认为市场可能开始认可其更广泛业务的实力。问题是，苹果能否重夺其旧有角色，成为定调整个市场的那只股票。随着硬件需求回暖、财报发布在即，如果苹果再次成为全市场瞩目的焦点，我不会感到惊讶。
That means services contribute more than 40% of Apple's total gross profit despite making up a much smaller share of revenue. Could Apple lead the market again? For a while, Apple has been viewed more as a defensive, quality-growth investment while Nvidia and other AI stocks captured investors' attention. Now with Apple leading the Magnificent Seven and closing in on Nvidia's valuation, I think the market may be starting to recognize the strength of its broader business. The question is whether Apple can reclaim its old role as the stock that sets the tone for the entire market. With hardware demand picking up and earnings just around the corner, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple once again becomes the company everyone is watching.
杰夫·基尔伯格是 KKM Financial 的创始人兼首席执行官。在创立自己的公司之前，他在芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）和芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）的交易大厅工作了二十多年。
Jeff Kilburg is the founder and CEO of KKM Financial. Prior to starting his own firm, he spent more than two decades on the floors of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).
披露：基尔伯格通过其 Essential 40 ETF 持有苹果股票。[CNBC Pro 投稿人] 表达的所有观点仅代表其个人观点，不代表 CNBC、其母公司或关联公司的观点，且可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介发布。本内容作为编辑输出的一部分仅供参考，不构成财务、投资、税务或法律建议，也不构成购买任何证券或其他金融资产的推荐。
Disclosures: Kilburg owns through his Essential 40 ETF. All opinions expressed by the [CNBC Pro contributors] are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. This content is provided as part of our editorial output for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice or a recommendation to buy any security or other financial asset.
内容具有普遍性，不针对任何个人的特殊情况。上述内容可能不适合您的特定情况。在做出任何财务决策前，您应强烈考虑寻求自己的财务或投资顾问的建议。本内容仅供参考，不构成财务、投资、税务或法律建议，也不构成购买任何证券或其他金融资产的推荐。
The content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual's unique personal circumstances. The above content might not be suitable for your particular circumstances. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET.
上述内容仅供一般参考，不针对任何个人的特殊情况。上述内容可能不适合您的具体情况。在做出任何财务决定前，您应充分考虑向您自己的财务或投资顾问寻求建议。
THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.