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在共和党地盘上,独立人士争取对两党都厌倦的选民On Republican Turf, Independents Court Voters Fed Up with Both Parties

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10月19日,在内布拉斯加州林肯市举行的内布拉斯加州独立美国参议院候选人丹·奥斯本的市政厅活动上,一名与会者手持竞选标语牌。摄影师:Allison Hess/彭博社An attendee carries a campaign sign during a town hall event with Dan Osborn, Independent US Senate candidate from Nebraska, in Lincoln, Nebraska, on Oct. 19. Photographer: Allison Hess/Bloomberg

在美国西部的平原和山区,独立参议员候选人正在崛起,这表明农村选民对全国民主党感到幻灭,即使他们对华盛顿的共和党统治也日益不满。

Independent US Senate candidates are rising across the plains and mountains of the West, signaling rural voters’ disenchantment with the national Democratic Party even amid mounting discontent with Republican rule in Washington.

根据AdImpact的数据,独立候选人丹·奥斯本的挑战促使共和党及其盟友向内布拉斯加州投入了超过4200万美元,约为奥斯本及其盟友投入金额的两倍。唐纳德·特朗普总统飞抵该州举行集会,为陷入困境的现任参议员皮特·里基茨助选,后者曾两度担任这个通常由共和党把持的州的州长。

Independent Dan Osborn’s challenge has prompted Republicans and their allies to pour more than $42 million into Nebraska, about double the amount from Osborn and his allies, according to AdImpact. President Donald Trump flew in for a rally to defend embattled incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts, a former two-term governor of the typically Republican state.

在蒙大拿州、南达科他州和爱达荷州,以与奥斯本竞选类似的民粹主题参选的独立候选人,也是共和党提名人的主要挑战者。

Independent candidates running on populist themes similar to Osborn’s campaign also are the leading challengers to GOP nominees in Montana, South Dakota and Idaho.

尽管这些候选人要克服其所在州浓厚的共和党倾向,以及独立竞选在根深蒂固的两党制中面临的重重障碍将十分困难,但他们的吸引力是一个闪烁的警示信号:随着2028年总统大选临近,两党均未能满足选民对另一种政治模式的广泛渴望。

While it will be difficult for any of them to overcome their states’ heavy Republican tilt and the considerable obstacles independent campaigns confront in an entrenched two-party system, their appeal is a flashing warning heading into the 2028 presidential election that neither party is satisfying a broad yearning for a different kind of politics.

丹·奥斯本在10月19日于内布拉斯加州林肯市的市政厅活动结束后。Dan Osborn following a town hall event in Lincoln, Nebraska, on Oct. 19.

“这里的人们说,‘我想要改变,’”前北达科他州民主党参议员海迪·海特坎普表示,她在2018年竞选连任失败,但选民“感觉不到受到民主党的尊重。”她补充说,该地区石油、天然气和采矿等自然资源开采行业的工人因全国民主党的一些立场而感到疏远,而其他人则感觉到与该党全国品牌存在文化上的距离。

“People out here say, ‘I want things to change,’” said Heidi Heitkamp, a former North Dakota Democratic senator who lost her reelection bid in 2018, but they “don’t feel respected by the Democratic Party.”Workers in the region’s natural resource extraction industries such as oil, gas and mining have been alienated by some stances of national Democrats, while others feel a cultural distance from the party’s national brand, she added.

所有独立候选人均表示,他们不会参加任何一个党的党团会议。但击败共和党现任议员仍将有助于试图赢得参议院多数席位的民主党人。他们的参选也迫使共和党在传统的共和党大本营中处于守势。

The independent candidates have all said they would not caucus with either party. But ousting Republican incumbents would still help Democrats trying to win the Senate majority. Their candidacies are also forcing Republicans on the defensive in traditional GOP strongholds.

在美国农村地区,约有一半的选民认为当前的经济状况比特朗普上任时更糟糕;但根据美联社与非党派健康研究机构 KFF 于 8 月联合进行的一项民意调查,只有 39% 的选民表示会投票给民主党候选人。这些西部地区的独立选民普遍持有反对现有政治体制的观点,他们主张限制企业权力、打击职业政客以及惩治腐败现象。这些候选人都是退伍军人,他们的个人经历都体现了传统的爱国主义精神与公共服务精神。

In rural America, about half of voters believe the economy is worse than when Trump took office, but only 39% said they would vote for a Democrat for Congress, according an August poll by the Associated Press and KFF, a nonpartisan health research group. The Western independents share anti-establishment messages about taking on corporate power, career politicians and corruption. All are military veterans, anchoring their life stories in a traditionalist credential of patriotism and public service.

奥斯本(Osborn)曾是一名机械师和工会官员,他在两年前就展示了无党派身份参选的潜在优势——他在竞选中表现远超预期,尽管最终仍以 7% 的差距输给了现任共和党议员黛布·菲舍尔(Deb Fischer);不过该州特朗普的得票率超过了 20%。奥斯本一直致力于推动相关立法,以促进信用卡行业的竞争、加强针对肉类加工巨头等企业的反垄断监管,并推动“设备维修权”政策的实施(即农民等用户无需通过制造商授权的经销商即可自行修理设备)。

Osborn, a machinist and former union official, showed the potential advantage of running without a party label two years ago. He did much better than expected against incumbent Republican Deb Fischer, though still lost to her by 7 percentage points in a state Donald Trump won by more than 20. He’s championed legislation to force more competition into the credit card industry, stronger antitrust enforcement against meatpacking conglomerates and other corporate giants, and a “right-to-repair” so farmers and others can fix their equipment without having to go to manufacturer-authorized dealers.

一名独立参议员候选人丹·奥斯本的支持者在9月于内布拉斯加州约翰逊湖举行的市政厅活动中身穿印有“用机械工取代亿万富翁”字样的T恤。A supporter of Independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn wears a “Replace A Billionaire With A Mechanic” shirt during a town hall event in Johnson Lake, Nebraska. in September.

共和党候选人里克茨(Ricketts)是亿万富翁 TD Ameritrade 公司创始人乔·里克茨(Joe Ricketts)的儿子;今年,共和党及其相关组织将奥斯本称为“民主党人”,试图削弱他的选民吸引力。共和党参议院竞选团队的发言人伯纳黛特·布雷斯林(Bernadette Breslin)嘲笑奥斯本及其他无党派候选人的竞选活动,称其为“虚假的独立派闹剧”。

Republican Ricketts, the son of billionaire TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, and GOP groups are attacking Osborn this year as “Democrat Dan” in an effort to strip away his crossover appeal. Bernadette Breslin, a spokeswoman for Senate Republicans’ national campaign arm, derided bids by Osborn and other unaffiliated candidates as a “fake independent circus.”

目前,蒙大拿州的参议院候选人塞思·博德纳(Seth Bodnar)、南达科他州的布莱恩·本格斯(Brian Bengs)以及爱达荷州的托德·阿基里斯(Todd Achilles)也在效仿奥斯本的竞选策略。

Senate candidates Seth Bodnar in Montana, Brian Bengs in South Dakota, and Todd Achilles in Idaho are now following in the Osborn mold.

博德纳是一名前绿色贝雷帽成员、罗德学者和蒙大拿大学校长,他获得了该州许多最知名民主党人的支持,筹集的资金也超过了共和党对手、检察官库尔特·阿尔梅。但民主党候选人阿兰尼·班克黑德可能会在那里分裂反共和党选票——与其他三个州不同,那里的民主党提名人退出了竞选,以支持独立候选人。

Bodnar, a former Green Beret, Rhodes Scholar and president of the University of Montana, has attracted backing from many of his state’s most prominent Democrats and raised more money than his Republican opponent, prosecutor Kurt Alme. But Democratic candidate Alani Bankhead is likely to divide the anti-Republican vote there — unlike the other three states, where Democratic nominees dropped out in favor of the independent candidates.

塞思·博德纳尔在7月2日于蒙大拿州利文斯顿举行的第101届年度围场牛仔竞技游行中,该游行庆祝美国建国250周年。Seth Bodnar at the 101st annual Roundup Rodeo Parade celebrating the 250th Anniversary of America in Livingston, Montana, on July 2.

迄今为止,只有奥斯本被像库克政治报告这样的非党派分析人士视为有获胜可能,尽管该报告仍将内布拉斯加州的竞争评为“可能”由共和党赢得。

So far, only Osborn is seen as a threat to win by nonpartisan analysts like the Cook Political Report, which nonetheless rates the Nebraska contest as “likely” to go Republican.

“要让这些独立候选人之一获胜,必须是完美风暴,”负责监督参议院竞选分析的库克政治报告编辑杰西卡·泰勒说。

“It has to be a perfect storm for one of these independents to prevail,” said Jessica Taylor, the Cook Political Report editor who oversees analysis of Senate contests.

不过,在几场竞选中,独立的公众民调稀缺,而候选人正在人口稀少的州参选,在那里,基层政治可能会产生影响。

Still, independent public polling is scant in several of the races, and the candidates are running in low-population states where retail politics can have an impact.

据盖洛普民调显示,全国有45%的美国人自称是独立人士,这是该项追溯数十年的调查中记录的最高比例。演员马修·麦康纳周日发布的一段社交媒体视频,敦促美国人考虑在中期选举中投票给独立候选人,到周四在x.com上的观看次数已超过600万次。

Nationally, 45% of Americans identify as independents, according to Gallup polling, the highest portion on record in a survey that goes back decades. A social media video actor Matthew McConaughey posted Sunday urging Americans to consider casting their midterm votes for independent candidates had been viewed more than 6 million times on x.com by Thursday.

几位在长期的共和党堡垒中与对手势均力敌、从而引起全国关注的民主党参议院候选人,也都将与全国政党划清界限作为其竞选活动的关键特征。

Several Democratic Senate candidates who have seized national attention by running neck-and-neck races in longtime Republican strongholds also have made differentiating themselves from the national party key features of their campaigns.

海特坎普引用了在堪萨斯州参选的大型教会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿,以及在德克萨斯州参选的长老会神学院学生詹姆斯·塔拉里科,称他们正试图将信仰重新作为政党价值观,“削弱民主党无神论的叙事”。汉密尔顿曾考虑以独立候选人身份参选,他几乎甚至不提自己是民主党人,并表示他将投票反对留任纽约的查克·舒默担任该党的参议院领袖。

Heitkamp cited Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor running in Kansas, and James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian running in Texas, as trying to reclaim faith as a party value, “cutting into that narrative that Democrats are godless.”Hamilton, who considered running as an independent, barely even mentions he is a Democrat and has said he would vote against retaining New York’s Chuck Schumer as the party’s Senate leader.

亚当·汉密尔顿在10月4日于堪萨斯州莱内克萨举行的竞选活动中向与会者致意。Adam Hamilton greets attendees during a campaign event in Lenexa, Kansas, on Oct. 4.

汉密尔顿的对手、共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔试图将这位牧师与舒默联系在一起,在周三晚间的辩论中提到了这位纽约州参议员17次——汉密尔顿称这一策略“很有意思”。“我是一个站在中间立场的人,”汉密尔顿说。

Hamilton’s opponent, Republican Senator Roger Marshall, has sought to align the pastor with Schumer, mentioning the New York senator 17 times during a debate Wednesday night — a tactic Hamilton called “interesting.”“I’m somebody who stands in the middle,” Hamilton said.

在爱荷华州,民主党参议员候选人乔什·图雷克将自己定位为“拥有常识的草原民粹主义者”,并告诉乔恩·斯图尔特,他刻意与全国性政党保持“一定距离”。

In Iowa, Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek presents himself as a “common sense prairie populist” and told Jon Stewart he deliberately projects “some distance” from the national party.

蒙大拿州的乔恩·特斯特曾任三届民主党参议员,2006年首次当选,当时选民对华盛顿腐败丑闻和伊拉克战争的反弹将他送入参议院,这一背景与今年的环境有相似之处。他说,独立候选人从全国性政党品牌中获得的分离是有代价的。

Montana’s Jon Tester, a former three-term Democratic senator first elected in a 2006 backlash against Washington corruption scandals and the Iraq War with parallels to this year’s environment, said the separation independents gain from the national party brand comes at a cost.

特斯特表示,独立候选人没有机构支持,也得不到全国性政党领袖能帮助吸引的大量外部资金。他认可了博德纳,但曾不成功地敦促他以民主党人身份参选。

Independents don’t have institutional support or the slew of outside money national party leaders can help attract, said Tester, who endorsed Bodnar but said he unsuccessfully urged him to run as a Democrat.

“这很难,”特斯特说。“更棘手的是,本周期有太多竞选处于胶着状态。”数亿美元资金正在支持其他战场州的民主党候选人,包括俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州、缅因州、阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州、密歇根州,以及最近的堪萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州,甚至密西西比州。

“That’s hard,” Tester said. “What compounds it is that there are so many races that are in the mix this cycle.”Hundreds of millions of dollars are supporting Democratic candidates in other battlegrounds, including Ohio, Texas, Maine, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and lately, Kansas, South Carolina and even Mississippi.

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