The fight for control of the US Senate has expanded to an unexpected place: the deeply conservative farm state of Nebraska, thanks to the rising appeal of an independent candidate who says he wants nothing to do with either party.

The Plains state is one of several GOP strongholds in the region, including neighboring Iowa and Kansas, where polls show Republican candidates in surprisingly tight races, as President Donald Trump’s approval rating slides in places he won easily just two years ago.

With razor thin party margins, any race could be the one that decides who dictates the agenda in the Senate.

Midwest farmers have been hit hard by inflation exacerbated by increases in diesel and fertilizer costs spurred by the war in Iran. And Trump has angered Nebraska’s ranchers with his calls for lower beef prices and decision to ease tariffs on some imports of the meat.

Independent Dan Osborn is hoping to channel that anger and siphon off enough Republican votes to unseat incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts. Since Osborn is unaffiliated with the Democrats, it is unclear if a win for him would be a win for the party, but it would certainly mark a loss for the GOP.

Osborn is speaking directly to frustrated voters as he campaigns on lowering costs and standing up to corporate interests. But voters here, who are predominately Republican, are hesitant to break ties with their party despite rejecting some of Trump’s policies.

Craig Ely of Stella, a tiny hamlet in the state’s southeast corner, is exactly the type of voter Osborn hopes to persuade even though he voted for Trump three times. Rising gas costs have Ely limiting visits to neighboring towns and sticking to the two-and-a-half-mile drive to the grain elevator where he works.

“I think that’s killing us,” Ely said of the war, as he unloaded a truck full of corn into the elevator. “Everything’s going up but the wages.”Regardless, he plans to vote for Ricketts.

“I don’t think anybody’s truly for him,” he said of the Republican candidate. “I mean, it’s the best of the two evils basically.”Osborn, a former industrial mechanic for Kellogg and union leader, is running as an everyman who feels the financial pinch. He is focusing on Ricketts’ wealth as the eldest son of Joe Ricketts, the billionaire founder of TD Ameritrade who shares ownership of the Chicago Cubs with his family.

Polls show Osborn within striking distance of Ricketts, remarkable strength in a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats two-to-one. And while Cook Political Report gives the edge to the incumbent, the close race is forcing the GOP to put resources into a state Trump carried by roughly 20 points just two years ago.

Both Trump and Vice President JD Vance have stumped for Ricketts in the closing weeks of the campaign. And while there, Trump signed an order to help ease diesel costs for farmers.

Ricketts and his allies have spent about $50 million in advertising, roughly double Osborn and his supporters, according to AdImpact. Republicans are hoping to paint Osborn as a Democrat and undermine voter trust in the brand he’s forged as an independent. Osborn acknowledged that’s been a challenge.

“That’s been our struggle especially as an independent when somebody’s putting that level of spending trying to define you,” he said.

Kevin Smith, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska, said GOP voters like Ely exemplify the challenge ahead for Osborn.

“It’s one thing to grumble,” he said. “It’s another thing to actually vote against the party you identify with.”

Osborn can’t just rely on disaffected GOP voters staying home, Smith said. He needs to peel off “a nontrivial fraction” of Republicans to win. “That’s not speculation. That’s just math.”To counter Ricketts’ built-in advantage as the incumbent and a Republican, Osborn has been hitting the trail, holding town halls in each of Nebraska’s 93 counties and fielding questions from voters, emphasizing his humble roots.

“I’d say the biggest difference between me and my opponent is I’m putting Christmas on a credit card this year,” Osborn said in an interview. “I’m feeling squeezed just like everybody else.”Many of Osborn’s policy ideas would be at home on a Democratic platform, including taxing the wealthy, maintaining the social safety net and getting money out of politics. He’s also talking about local issues, like calling for the breakup of Big Agriculture, country-of-origin labeling of imported beef and the right to repair farm equipment.

Osborn has also staked out positions to the right of most Democrats on immigration and gun rights, sensitive issues for the party. But that’s done little to alienate his Democratic fans.

Judy Martindale was among the 150 or so Osborn supporters, mostly seniors, who crowded into a bare-bones union hall in Lincoln, earlier this month.

“I think that’s fine that Dan’s running as an independent,” Martindale said. “I don’t care. His philosophy is the same as mine.”Ricketts has seized on Osborn’s overlap with Democrats to paint him as an independent in name only.

At a campaign event in Fremont, about 50 miles north of Osborn’s town hall, Ricketts appeared alongside some of the state’s top Republicans, as well as Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who derided Osborn as a “wolf in sheep’s clothes.”Ricketts has been aided by a robust war chest – roughly half of which he supplied himself – and leaked Osborn comments disparaging Trump voters and implying a greater alignment with Democratic policy positions than he’s professed publicly. Osborn has apologized and said he regrets the comments.

“He says one thing to you all publicly. Behind closed doors he says something else,” Ricketts said at the event.

Doubt about Osborn’s bona fides as an independent has made it harder for some of his policies to break through with Republicans, even when they agree with him.

At a cattle auction in Kearney, ranchers groused about Trump’s calls for lower beef prices as a fast-talking auctioneer rattled off rapid-fire bids. Corey Cline, a local cattle dealer, said he disliked both Osborn and Ricketts. He blamed high beef prices on the “monopoly in the food distribution system,” which he said marks up prices while adding little value.

It’s a view he shares with Osborn, who’s running on breaking up the meat-packers and other companies that make up Big Ag. But he’s failed to win over Cline, who said he doesn’t trust Osborn is an independent.

“It’s like calling an apple a lime when you know the damn thing’s a lime,” Cline said. “I’m gonna vote straight ticket ‘red.’”