世界上大部分的目光如今都聚焦在竞选活动、民调、预测和政治角力上。头条新闻被谁领先、谁落后以及接下来会发生什么所主导。
A dangerous El Niño could turn hunger into famine Much of the world’s attention today is fixed on election campaigns, polls, predictions and political battles. Headlines are dominated by who is up, who is down and what comes next.
然而，在候选人们争夺选票之时，另一场竞赛正在远离竞选现场的地方展开：一场数百万家庭面临败局风险的抗击饥饿竞赛。
But while candidates compete for votes, another race is unfolding far from the campaign trail: a race against hunger that millions of families are in danger of losing.
如今，有超过2.66亿人面临严重粮食不安全。然而，饥饿很少成为头条新闻，除非它达到灾难性程度。等到瘦骨嶙峋的儿童形象出现在我们屏幕上时，家庭往往已经遭受了数月甚至数年的痛苦。
Today, more than 266 million people face acute food insecurity. Yet hunger rarely becomes a headline until it reaches catastrophic levels. By the time images of starving children appear on our screens, families have often been suffering for months, even years.
饥荒不是一下子降临的。它是一收成一收成、一餐一餐地慢慢逼近，直到突然之间，世界在追问事态怎么会恶化到这一步。预警信号已经出现。现在，一个新的威胁正在积聚力量。
Famine doesn’t arrive all at once. It arrives slowly, harvest by harvest, meal by meal, until suddenly the world is asking how things got so bad. The warning signs are already here. Now, a new threat is gathering strength.
近期预测警告，正在形成的2026-27年厄尔尼诺天气现象可能给世界上一些最脆弱地区带来干旱、洪水、农作物减产和粮食不安全加剧。东非和南部非洲是尤其令人担忧的地区，额外的气候冲击可能导致人道主义需求大幅上升。
Recent forecasts warn that the developing 2026-27 El Niño weather phenomenon could bring drought, flooding, crop losses and rising food insecurity across some of the world’s most vulnerable regions. East and Southern Africa are among the areas of particular concern, where additional climate shocks could drive sharply higher humanitarian needs.
一线国际人道主义组织得出了类似的结论：正在形成的厄尔尼诺现象可能将数百万更多人推向饥饿，对妇女和女童、儿童以及已受冲突和流离失所影响的社区造成特别严重的后果。他们的分析指出，索马里等地的粮食和营养风险正在增加，粮食不安全状况正在恶化。
Frontline international humanitarian organizations are reaching a similar conclusion: the developing El Niño could push millions more people into hunger, with particularly severe consequences for women and girls, children and communities already affected by conflict and displacement. Their analyses point to growing food and nutrition risks and worsening food insecurity in places such as Somalia.
父母省下饭菜让孩子吃。家庭变卖牲畜和其他资产以求生存。儿童辍学，而已经历过冲突、流离失所和经济困境的社区被推得更接近悬崖边缘。现在，一个新的威胁正在积聚力量。危险不仅仅在于干旱，而在于多重危机的叠加。
Parents are skipping meals so their children can eat. Families are selling livestock and other assets to survive. Children are leaving school, while communities that have already endured conflict, displacement and economic hardship are being pushed closer to the edge. Now, a new threat is gathering strength. The danger is not drought alone. It is the collision of multiple crises.
冲突持续破坏粮食生产和贸易。经济压力推高了粮食、化肥和运输的成本。与此同时，人道主义资源正在缩减，而需求却在增加。对于数百万个尚在努力从以往冲击中恢复的家庭来说，几乎没有任何缓冲余地。
Conflict continues to disrupt food production and trade. Economic pressures are driving up the costs of food, fertilizer and transportation. At the same time, humanitarian resources are shrinking just as needs are increasing. For millions of families already struggling to recover from previous shocks, there is little margin left.
但饥饿是我们往往能预见的为数不多的全球性危机之一。预警系统为人道主义响应提供了一种罕见的东西：在生命逝去、社区陷入灾难之前采取行动的机会。
But hunger is one of the few global crises we can often see coming. Early warning systems provide something rare in humanitarian response: a chance to act before lives are lost and communities are pushed into catastrophe.
事实上，一些早期行动已经在进行。美国政府最近宣布向秘鲁提供额外支持，帮助其应对厄尔尼诺现象的相关影响，这凸显了一个简单的道理：根据预警采取行动能够挽救生命，并降低危机形成后进行应对所需的高得多的成本。但这还远远不够。
In fact, some early action is underway. The U.S. government recently announced additional support to help Peru prepare for El Niño-related impacts, underscoring a simple truth: acting on early warnings saves lives and reduces the far greater costs of responding after a crisis takes hold. But more is needed.
在全球范围内，美国人道主义组织已经在与当地合作伙伴携手，帮助社区为应对更多冲击做准备。他们支持农民，强化当地粮食体系，保护生计，帮助弱势家庭抵御危机。这些努力很少成为头条新闻，但它们能决定一场冲击是仅仅造成困难，还是演变成一场人道主义灾难。
Across the globe, American humanitarian organizations are already working alongside local partners to help communities prepare for additional shocks. They are supporting farmers, strengthening local food systems, protecting livelihoods and helping vulnerable families withstand crises. These efforts rarely make headlines, but they can determine whether a shock becomes a hardship or a humanitarian disaster.
随着国会和政府就来年的资金和优先事项做出决定，他们面临一个明确的选择：根据我们已掌握的预警采取行动，还是等到本可预防的苦难演变成全面的人道主义紧急情况——无论在财政上还是人道上，代价都要大得多。
As Congress and the administration make decisions about funding and priorities for the year ahead, they face a straightforward choice: act on the warnings we already have or wait until preventable suffering becomes a full-blown humanitarian emergency that is far more costly, both financially and humanly.
饥饿并非不可避免。我们知道预警信号，也知道什么行之有效。问题在于，我们是否选择在今天的预警变成明天的危机之前采取行动。
Hunger is not inevitable. We know the warning signs. We know what works. The question is whether we choose to act before today’s warning becomes tomorrow’s crisis.
汤姆·哈特是InterAction（美国非政府组织全国联盟）的总裁兼首席执行官。
Tom Hart is president and CEO of InterAction, the national alliance of U.S.-based nongovernmental organizations.