Israelis vote on October 27 in an election that could determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power, with polls suggesting that neither his bloc nor the opposition has a clear path to the 61 seats needed to form a government. The first national election since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, is widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s handling of the attack and the wars that followed, the Associated Press (AP) reported. Even after the vote, coalition negotiations could take weeks.

Why the vote is a test for Netanyahu Voters will elect the 120 members of the 26th Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Key issues include who should be held responsible for the October 7 security failures, whether ultra-Orthodox men should be required to serve in the military, the cost of living and Israel’s standing abroad. EXPRESS INFOGENIE · ISRAEL VOTES OCT 27

Israel Election Explained in 5 Points Tap a number to move through the essentials. WHO’S RUNNING 61 SEATS POINT 1 What is at stake? Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is seeking to stay in power in the first election since the October 7 attacks. Many see the vote as a referendum on his leadership. Years Netanyahu has served as prime minister: 19

Corruption trial ICC arrest warrant He rejects both ABC News (Australia); Al Jazeera; CFR Next →

POINT 2 Who is running? Likud and its right-wing and ultra-Orthodox allies face a fragmented opposition led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose new party Yashar leads most polls.

Seats in one poll (Zman Yisrael, Oct 14–15) Netanyahu bloc 49 seats LikudShasUTJOtzma Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism Opposition 54 seats YasharB’YachadYBDem

Eisenkot’s Yashar, Bennett and Lapid’s B’Yachad, Yisrael Beiteinu, the Democrats Arab parties 13 seats Joint List Joint List, Ra’am Unaligned 4 seats

Reservists-Economy Zman Yisrael / Tatika Research poll, 500 respondents, ±4.4%, via The Times of Israel; JTA Next →POINT 3 Why 61 seats matter A government needs the backing of 61 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

No single party has ever won that many, so every Israeli government is a coalition. 120 seats · 61 needed Range across four recent polls · red line = 61 Netanyahu bloc 48–51 Opposition 51–55 CFR; Zman Yisrael, Walla, Channel 12 and Channel 13 polls, via The Times of Israel and The Jerusalem Post Next →

POINT 4 Why smaller parties matter A list needs 3.25% of the vote, about four seats, to enter the Knesset. Votes for lists that fall short are lost, changing how the 120 seats are shared among the rest, and possibly which bloc gets closer to 61. Lists polling below the line in recent surveys

3.25% THRESHOLD2.8%2.1%1.2% Amcha Yisrael Reservists Blue and White The Reservists-Economy list won 4 seats in one poll but 2.1% in another. Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael has polled just under the threshold. Channel 12 (Reservists, Amcha Yisrael), Zman Yisrael (Blue and White), via The Jerusalem Post and The Times of Israel; JTA Next →POINT 5

What happens after voting? BY NOV 4Official results WITHIN 7 DAYSThe president picks a candidate The lawmaker best placed to form a government. 28 DAYS, +14 IF EXTENDEDCoalition talks Opposition leaders have not agreed who would lead, or whether to sit with Arab parties. IF THEY FAILDeadlock, and another election “Negotiations will take weeks, and their failure, leading to another election, is quite plausible.”ELLIOTT ABRAMS, CFR JTA; CFR Back to 1 ↺Sources: CFR; ABC News (Australia); Al Jazeera; JTA; The Times of Israel (Zman Yisrael poll); The Jerusalem Post (poll round-up).

Express InfoGenIE Created by Aniruddha Dhar Netanyahu’s Likud is aligned with far-right parties, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, and ultra-Orthodox parties such as Shas and United Torah Judaism. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party is another key ally. Together, these parties form the core of Netanyahu’s governing bloc, although coalition negotiations after the vote will determine whether they can secure a parliamentary majority.

Who is running? The opposition is divided among several parties. Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot leads the centrist Yashar party and is Netanyahu’s principal challenger. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett leads Beyachad, an alliance combining his party with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid.

Other opposition figures include Yair Golan of the Democrats and former finance minister Avigdor Liberman of Yisrael Beyteinu. Smaller lists, including Amcha Yisrael and the Reservists-Economic Party, could influence the distribution of seats if they cross the electoral threshold. Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu is flanked by security personnel during an election campaign visit to Jerusalem’s Mahane Yehuda Market. (Photo: AP) Can Netanyahu survive? Neither side has a clear route to the 61 seats needed to form a government.

Netanyahu would need support from his right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies, while the opposition would have to find partners beyond its core parties. The Arab-led parties could prove decisive. However, mainstream opposition leaders have been reluctant to include them in a governing coalition, while Netanyahu has also attacked the prospect of relying on Arab parties. The ultra-Orthodox parties present another complication because of disagreements over exemptions from military service. An election campaign billboard featuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party, and other politicians hangs in Kiryat Shmona, Israel’s largest northern city, near Lebanon’s border, ahead of the country’s general election. (Photo: AP) Possible routes to a government could include a unity arrangement, an agreement involving Arab-led parties, or support from ultra-Orthodox parties for an alternative coalition. Each option would require political compromises, and a prolonged deadlock could lead to another election.

How the vote works and what could change Israelis aged 18 and over vote for a party, and each party gets seats in line with its share of the national vote. A party needs 3.25 per cent, about four seats, to enter the Knesset. After the count, the president asks the member of the Knesset best placed to build a coalition to try. That person has 28 days. If it fails, the president can pick someone else or hand the task to the Knesset, and if nobody succeeds, Israelis vote again.

A bicyclist passes a campaign billboard featuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, and his main rival, opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot, with a message in Hebrew that reads “The race is tight,” as a poster featuring Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich lies on the pavement. (Photo: AP) Polls open at 0400 GMT, with first results expected overnight and final results due on Thursday. Soldiers were due to start voting on October 20, and thousands of Israelis abroad are flying home because the law does not allow them to vote from overseas.

Abrams and Cook expect little change in foreign policy whoever wins, because most Israelis back a firm line on Iran, Lebanon and Syria and oppose a Palestinian state in the near term. An opposition win could change the tone of Israel’s relations with its neighbours and bring firmer action against settler violence in the West Bank. Palestinians cannot vote, but AP said the result will affect them. More than 74,000 people have been killed in Gaza in the Israeli offensive, and almost 2 million have been displaced.