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彭博社

卢拉集会支持者,寄望最后一搏或最终告别Lula Rallies His Supporters for One Last Comeback, or a Final Goodbye

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路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦绝不会不战而降。他的支持者也没准备放弃他。在这里,他们沿着圣保罗最具标志性的大道游行,见证了拉丁美洲左翼最具标志性人物可能举行的最后一次集会。

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wasn’t going down without a fight. And his fans weren’t ready to give up on him. Here, marching down Sao Paulo’s most iconic avenue, they were bearing witness to what may turn out to be the last rally by the most defining figure of Latin America’s left.

奥古斯塔·萨赖瓦、安德鲁·罗萨蒂报道 周六,在巴西人前往投票站选出下一任领导人前几个小时,这位80岁的总统吸引了数十万民众前来声援。身穿红衣的支持者汇成一片红海,他们高呼口号、跳舞、举起双手在空中比出字母“L”,一切都是为了这位在过去四十年里始终处于巴西政治中心的人物。

By Augusta Saraiva and Andrew Rosati On Saturday, hours before Brazilians head to the polls to choose their next leader, the 80-year-old president drew hundreds of thousands to show up for him. It was a sea of red-clad supporters that were chanting, dancing and raising their hands in the air to form the letter L, all for a man who’s been at the center of the nation’s politics for the past four decades.

这次最后的竞选停留,是凄美的告别,还是为一位拒绝认输的在任总统上演最不可能的奇迹般逆转搭建舞台?卢拉首次当选于2002年,已七次竞选总统。

Was this last campaign stop a bittersweet farewell or setting the stage for the unlikeliest of miraculous comebacks from a defiant incumbent who is refusing to call time? First elected in 2002, Lula has run for president seven times.

即使面临重重不利因素,他仍在争取前所未有的第四个、也是最后一个任期,投票将于周日举行。这种拼搏精神在卢拉乘坐一辆缓慢行驶的音响卡车、沿着一条长3公里的街道巡游时展露无遗。这条街道是文化地标,象征着巴西的经济转型,也是该国一些最大规模抗议活动的发生地。

He is attempting to secure an unprecedented fourth and final mandate on Sunday, even with the odds stacked against him. That drive was on display as Lula rode a slow-moving soundtruck down a 3-kilometer street that serves as a cultural landmark, a symbol of the country’s economic transformation and also the scene for some of its biggest protests.

10月24日,路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在里约热内卢科帕卡巴纳海滩举行的竞选闭幕集会上手持一本巴西宪法和国旗。Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a copy of the Brazilian Constitution and the national flag during a closing campaign rally at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Oct. 24.

投票前的最后几轮民调显示,对手弗拉维奥·博索纳罗占据优势,但也表明,在10月4日意外输给这位右翼参议员的首轮投票后,现任总统获得了一些势头。根据彭博新闻委托AtlasIntel周六发布的民调,博索纳罗以51%对49%领先卢拉,其他民调显示类似的分差。

The final polls before the vote show his rival Flávio Bolsonaro has the edge, though they also suggest the incumbent has gained some momentum after unexpectedly losing the first round to the right-wing senator on Oct. 4. Bolsonaro had 51% to Lula’s 49% in an AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News on Saturday, and others showed similar splits.

保利斯塔大道长期以来一直是角逐国家最高职位者的必经之地——但也是政治异见、甚至暴力异见的舞台。这里曾是要求弹劾迪尔玛·罗塞夫的最大规模示威活动发生地,也是抗议雅伊尔·博索纳罗(弗拉维奥之父)应对疫情不力的抗议活动发生地。而在第二轮投票前夕,这标志着卢拉试图实现复兴的高潮时刻。

Avenida Paulista has long been a rite of passage for those aspiring to the highest office in the land — but also a stage for political, even violent, dissent. It was the location of the biggest demonstrations for the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff as well as the protesting of the botched response to the pandemic by Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father. And on the eve of the second round, it was the culmination of Lula’s attempt at a revival.

“我从未见过这样的场面,”卢拉在发布到社交媒体的一段视频中谈到人群时说道。

“I’ve never seen anything like this before,” Lula said of the crowd in a video posted to social media.

博尔索纳罗在首轮投票后成为明显的热门人选,随后获得了一连串此前保持中立的政党的背书。

Bolsonaro emerged from the first round as the clear favorite, and followed it up with a slew of endorsements from political parties that had previously remained neutral.

从那时起,他流露出当选总统般的自信,这种态度在周五晚间竞选的最后一场辩论中表露无遗。博尔索纳罗嘲讽卢拉只有九根手指,这一毫无同理心的言论体现了这场平淡交锋的基调,双方均未能造成决定性打击。

He’s since exuded the confidence of a president-elect, an attitude that was on display during the race’s final debate Friday night. Bolsonaro made a mocking comment about Lula only having nine fingers, a tone-deaf remark that typified a lackluster encounter in which neither landed a definitive blow.

卢拉迅速抓住机会反击,讲述了他在工厂工作时失去手指的经历,并指责博尔索纳罗贬低巴西工人阶级。

Lula was quick to pounce, recounting the story of how he lost the finger while working in a factory and accusing Bolsonaro of denigrating working class Brazilians.

这位左翼领袖毕生都在挑战命运。他出生于巴西东北部的贫困家庭,一路崛起成为该国最具影响力的领导人。他在该国军事独裁时期是一名工会主义者,在最终赢得总统大选前经历了三次落选,随后带领国家度过经济繁荣期,利用这一契机让数百万民众摆脱了与他童年相似的境遇。

The leftist leader has made a life out of defying the odds. Born into poverty in Brazil’s northeast, he rose to become the nation’s most consequential leader. He was a trade unionist during the country’s dictatorship, lost three elections before finally winning the presidency, then steered his nation through an economic boom he used to lift millions from circumstances similar to those of his childhood.

卸任后,他战胜了癌症,因贪腐定罪入狱,后判决被撤销,继而上演了重返最高职位的戏剧性一幕。

After leaving office, he survived cancer, went to prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled, then staged a dramatic return to the top job.

他的追随者大军——以及其他厌恶博尔索纳罗家族好斗政治风格的人——只能寄希望于他还能再创奇迹。自1989年巴西重返民主以来,从未有首轮落后的候选人在决选中获胜。

His legion of followers — and others who maintain a distaste for the combative politics of the Bolsonaro family — are left to hope he has one more in him. Since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1989, no candidate who trailed in the first round has prevailed in the runoff.

首轮投票后,卢拉暂别竞选活动数日以重新思考策略。此后,他改革了社交媒体策略,吸引约1100万支持者加入一个名为“卢拉大军”的WhatsApp频道。他甚至开始使用手机,此前他发誓多年绝不使用。

Lula took days off the campaign trail to rethink strategy after the initial vote. Since then, he’s revamped his social media strategy and attracted some 11 million supporters to a WhatsApp channel dubbed “Lula’s Army.”He’s even gotten a cell phone, after years of swearing he never would.

他在参议院批准了其旗舰竞选提案——缩短巴西工作周——后取得了一项重大立法胜利。他推出了一些在其基本盘中反响良好的承诺:周末免费公共交通,以及免除被称为“微型企业家”的微型企业的债务。

He scored a major legislative victory when the Senate approved his flagship campaign proposal to shorten Brazil’s workweek. He’s unveiled pledges that score well with his base: free public transit on weekends as well as forgiving the debt of tiny businesses known as microentrepreneurs.

他还与Meta Platforms公司交锋,指责该公司“反复且系统性地”未能将他的信息传递给其网络上的用户。

He also went to battle with Meta Platforms Inc., accusing the company of “repeatedly and systematically” failing to deliver his message to users across its networks.

现在的问题是,这一切是否为时已晚。总统的竞选活动主要建立在对二十年前他为巴西人争取到的成果的怀念之上。

The question now is whether all of it was too late. The president ran a campaign largely based on nostalgia for the gains he secured for Brazilians two decades ago.

他最新的总统任期包含标志性的政策成就和一些可靠的经济指标——给工人的新税收减免、接近历史低位的失业率——但也因他难以满足一个在他离开最高职位期间已发生变化的巴西的需求而备受关注。

His latest term as president includes signature policy achievements and some solid economic indicators — new tax exemptions for workers, near-record low unemployment — but has been marked by his struggles to meet the demands of a Brazil that changed in his time away from the top job.

在过去一周的两场电视辩论中,他与博尔索纳罗交锋,挥舞着他的“工人阶级”资历,将自己描绘成一位经验丰富的政治家,曾让巴西处于地缘政治辩论的最前沿。

He squared off with Bolsonaro in two televised debates over the last week, brandishing his working-man bona fides and painting himself as an experienced statesman who’s put Brazil at the forefront of geopolitical debates.

10月24日,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在里约热内卢举行的竞选闭幕集会上。Flávio Bolsonaro during a closing campaign rally in Rio de Janeiro on Oct. 24.

但博尔索纳罗聚焦于犯罪、生活成本和沉重的家庭债务,指责对手与巴西人脱节。他誓言削减繁文缛节,并在安全问题上采取铁腕手段。

But Bolsonaro has focused on crime, the cost of living and heavy loads of household debt, alleging that his opponent is out of touch with Brazilians. He’s vowed to slash bureaucracy and take an iron-fist approach to security.

这或许产生了足够的共鸣,足以将那位承诺释放其父亲——因四年前输给卢拉后密谋政变而被软禁——的参议员送上总统宝座。

It may have resonated just enough to carry the senator who has promised to free his father — on house arrest for plotting a coup after losing to Lula four years ago — to the presidency.

博尔索纳罗周六在其家族的政治大本营里约热内卢召集支持者,承诺让卢拉彻底退休。

Bolsonaro rallied supporters in Rio de Janeiro, his family’s political stronghold, on Saturday, promising to retire Lula for good.

“我更加确信,”博尔索纳罗在里约热内卢说,“明天这个时候,巴西将有一位新总统。”

“I’m even more convinced,” Bolsonaro said in Rio, “that tomorrow at this time, Brazil will have a new president.”

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