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乌克兰为何如此依赖星链,欧洲能否填补这一空白?Why is Ukraine so reliant on Starlink and can Europe plug the gap?

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在乌克兰赫尔松,一名男子在俄罗斯袭击后让居民使用他的星链网络A man offers residents in Kherson, Ukraine, the use of his Starlink internet after a Russian strike

一名男子在乌克兰赫尔松遭俄军袭击后,向当地居民提供其星链卫星互联网服务。乌克兰急需一项新的卫星互联网服务,但目前尚不存在能与埃隆·马斯克的星链网络抗衡的快速可靠替代方案。

A man offers residents in Kherson, Ukraine, the use of his Starlink internet after a Russian strike Ukraine is in desperate need of a new satellite internet service, but a fast and reliable alternative to Elon Musk's Starlink network simply doesn't exist - yet.

上周星链服务在乌克兰突然变慢,影响了基辅抵御俄军袭击的能力,这暴露了该国的脆弱性,并大幅增加了欧洲拥有自主军用级卫星网络的紧迫性。

Last week's sudden slowdown of the service in Ukraine, which affected Kyiv's ability to defend itself from Russian attacks, has shown how vulnerable the country can be, and sharply increased Europe's urgency to have its own military-grade satellite network.

虽然存在几种替代方案,但它们都远远落后于星链——后者是全球最大的卫星星座。

There are a few alternatives, but they are all lagging behind Starlink, which is the world's largest satellite constellation.

法国的尤特尔萨特公司及其OneWeb互联网服务是主要替代者——但其仅拥有约600颗活跃卫星,而星链拥有1万颗以上。

France's Eutelsat, with its OneWeb internet service, is the main alternative - but it only has about 600 active satellites, compared to Starlink's 10,000-plus.

欧盟正在建设一个旨在与星链竞争的新网络“Iris²”,但要到2029年才能投入运行。

The EU is working on a new network to rival Starlink, Iris², however it won't be up and running until 2029.

对于前线的乌克兰士兵而言,可靠的连接关乎生死。几名接受BBC匿名采访的士兵表示:“要是他们彻底切断服务,那将是绝对的灾难。”“只要能保命,我不在乎替代方案要花多少钱。” 目前乌克兰的最佳选择是加入欧盟的卫星共享网络Govsatcom——但该网络不能用于军事作战,例如控制无人机。

For Ukraine's troops on the ground, several of whom spoke anonymously to the BBC, reliable connectivity is the difference between life and death. "God forbid they shut it off completely, it would be an absolute catastrophe," said one. "I don't give a damn how much an alternative costs when our lives are on the line." For now, Ukraine's best bet is to join Govsatcom, the EU's satellite sharing network - but it cannot be used for military warfare like controlling drones.

为何星链在乌克兰占据主导地位?星链及其军用级服务“星盾”均隶属于埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX公司,多年来主导着全球卫星市场。

Why does Starlink dominate in Ukraine? Starlink and its military-grade service, Starshield, are both owned by Elon Musk's SpaceX company and have dominated the global satellite market for years.

乌克兰依赖星链进行战场通信,依赖星盾用于无人机作战等军事用途。该网络能够提供快速、实时的连接,这对于防御和拦截俄军袭击至关重要。

Ukraine relies on Starlink for communications on the battlefield and Starshield for military purposes like drone warfare. The network is able to provide fast, real-time connectivity, which is crucial for defence and intercepting Russian attacks.

“如果没有这种高速互联网连接,就无法开展无人机作战,”法国国际关系研究院研究员文森特·图雷表示。

"You can't employ drone warfare without this kind of high-speed internet connection," said Vincent Tourret, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations.

上周的服务放缓直到最近才恢复,这凸显了在基辅与华盛顿关系持续恶化之际,依赖美国供应商的风险。

Last week's slowdown, which has only just been restored, highlighted the risks of relying on a US provider at a time when tensions between Kyiv and Washington continue to deteriorate.

“乌克兰的防御不能取决于特朗普或马斯克的心血来潮,”欧洲议会议员克里斯托夫·格吕德勒在推特上写道。

"Ukraine's defence cannot depend on Trump's or Musk's whims," French MEP, Christophe Grudler, tweeted.

是谁授权了星链限制目前仍不清楚,五角大楼、唐纳德·特朗普和埃隆·马斯克之间正在进行一场令人困惑的相互推责。

Who authorised the Starlink restrictions is still not clear, with a confusing blame-game ongoing between the Pentagon, Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)航空航天安全项目主任卡里·宾根解释说,虽然星链一直是乌克兰在这场冲突中最大的资产之一,但这种“依赖的另一面”已暴露无遗。

While Starlink has been one of Ukraine's greatest assets in this conflict, the "flipside of that dependence" has been exposed, explained Kari Bingen, director of the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS.

“这是乌克兰依赖但无法控制的关键军事能力。” 德米特罗·斯莫利延科/乌克林福通讯社/盖蒂图片社 乌克兰士兵在战场上架设星链终端 星链并非乌克兰唯一可接入的卫星网络,因此如果星链瘫痪还有其他选择——但专家表示,这些替代方案速度不如星链快,BBC采访的士兵也持相同看法。

"This is a critical military capability that Ukraine relies on, but doesn't control." Dmytro Smolienko/ Ukrinform/ Getty Images Ukrainian soldiers set up a Starlink terminal on the battlefield Starlink is not the only satellite network Ukraine can access, so if it goes down there are other options - but experts say they aren't as fast, and troops the BBC spoke to, agree.

“在传递指令方面,星链让我们占据上风——哪怕一两秒也至关重要,当我们能更快地传输数据和命令时,你在战场上真能感受到这种优势,”一名士兵说。

Starlink "gives us the upper hand when it comes to passing commands - even one or two seconds are critical when we can transfer data and orders faster, and you can really feel that advantage on the battlefield," a soldier said.

用于连接卫星的终端也是一个重要因素。星链终端相对体积小、重量轻,因此可以安装在任何类型的车辆或无人机上。

The terminals used to connect to the satellites are also an important factor. Starlink's are relatively small and lightweight, so they can be fixed to any kind of vehicle or drone.

乌克兰士兵在战场上架设星链终端Ukrainian soldiers set up a Starlink terminal on the battlefield

“尤特尔萨特的终端‘稍大一些,因此可以安装在汽车顶部或坦克上,但不一定能装在小型无人机上,’”法国卫星公司前首席执行官埃娃·贝尔内克表示。她补充说,这些终端的价格也贵约五倍。

Eutelsat's terminals "are slightly larger, so they can be fitted on the roof of a car, or on tanks, but they can't necessarily sit on small drones," said Eva Berneke, former CEO of the French satellite company. They are also about five times more expensive, she added.

欧盟目前能提供什么?白宫的言论——如唐纳德·特朗普对北约的严厉批评及其对格陵兰岛的威胁——给欧盟敲响了“一些相当残酷的警钟”,贝尔内克对BBC表示。

What can the EU offer right now? Rhetoric from the White House - like Donald Trump's scathing criticism of Nato and his threats against Greenland - have given the EU "some pretty brutal alarm bells", Berneke told the BBC.

2022年俄罗斯对乌克兰发动全面入侵时,她上任Eutelsat(优特尔卫星)仅一个月,她说她注意到欧洲当局的紧迫感发生了显著变化,因为他们希望这家公司能帮助填补Starlink(星链)若无法依赖时留下的空白。

She had only been at Eutelsat for a month when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and said she noticed a marked change in urgency from European authorities, as they looked to her company to help plug holes left by Starlink if it could not be relied upon.

埃隆·马斯克的言论进一步加剧了对替代方案的需求:“闭嘴,小人……没有星链的替代品,”他在去年推特上对波兰外长写道,当时这位政客表示如果SpaceX不可靠,他将“寻找其他供应商”。

Comments from Elon Musk have further heightened the need for an alternative: "Be quiet, small man... there is no substitute for Starlink," he tweeted at Poland's foreign minister last year, when the politician said he would "look for other suppliers" if SpaceX was unreliable.

欧洲已意识到其安全取决于太空,必须“紧急加强其卫星能力”,欧盟委员会一位发言人对BBC表示。

Europe has realised its security depends on space, and it must "strengthen its satellite capacities, urgently," a spokesperson for the European Commission told the BBC.

目前,欧盟拥有Govsatcom,这是一个于1月建立的网络,用于在欧盟成员国间共享现有卫星。乌克兰不是正式成员(尽管正在申请加入),但委员会正与基辅就加入Govsatcom事宜进行磋商。

Right now, it has Govsatcom, a network that was set up in January to share existing satellites between EU member states. Ukraine is not a full-fledged member (although it is trying to become one), but the Commission is in talks with Kyiv to join Govsatcom.

但即使乌克兰明天就能接入,该网络也无法用于战争行动,如操控无人机,而Starshield(星盾)可用于此类行动。

But even if Ukraine could connect tomorrow, the network could not be used for warfare operations like piloting drones, which Starshield is used for.

不过,这种情况可能在明年初发生变化,届时欧盟委员会希望商业公司(如Eutelsat旗下的OneWeb)加入该计划。这将满足乌克兰部分——但非全部——军事网络需求。

That could change by the start of next year, however, when the European Commission hopes commercial companies, like Eutelsat's OneWeb, will join the programme. This will give Ukraine some - but not all - of its military network needs.

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙去年在巴黎国际航展上手持Eutelsat终端。贝尔内克对BBC表示,她有信心公司能够“支持乌克兰相当多的关键军事需求”。但满足其通信需求则是另一回事,因为与大多数国家一样,这些需求多种多样且规模巨大。

French President Emmanuel Macron, with a Eutelsat terminal, at the International Paris Air Show last year Eva Berneke told the BBC she is confident the company will be able to "support quite a lot of Ukraine's key military needs". But meeting its communications needs is another thing, because as is the case with most countries, they are varied and massive.

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙去年在巴黎国际航空展上,身旁是一台欧洲通信卫星公司的终端French President Emmanuel Macron, with a Eutelsat terminal, at the International Paris Air Show last year

Eutelsat 无法就 Govsatcom 发表评论,但告诉 BBC:“作为唯一一家拥有全面运行的[低地球轨道]星座的欧洲运营商,我们致力于为我们服务的企业、政府和社区提供有弹性的连接。”

Eutelsat could not comment on Govsatcom, but told the BBC that "as the only European operator of a fully operational [Low Earth Orbit] constellation, we are committed to providing resilient connectivity to the businesses, governments and communities we serve".

目前尚未给出乌克兰何时能加入 Govsatcom 网络的时间表。一旦加入,它很可能会作为 Starlink 和“星盾”的可靠备份。

No timeline has been given for when Ukraine will be able to join the Govsatcom network. When it does it will likely be as a reliable back-up to Starlink and Starshield.

但这总比没有强,Vincent Tourret 表示。“如果 Starlink 被关闭,有另一种方式保持连接是好事,但在现阶段,这不足以用于打击或拦截。”

Iris² —— 欧盟的未来网络Govsatcom 被视为一种短期安全网,直到更强大、更安全的网络 Iris² 于 2029 年投入运行。

But that's better than nothing, Vincent Tourret said. "If Starlink is shut down, it's good to have another way to stay connected, but it won't be enough for strikes or interceptions, at this stage." ## Iris² - The EU's future network Govsatcom is seen as a short-term safety net, until the stronger and more secure network, Iris² is up and running in 2029.

欧盟委员会表示,这个雄心勃勃的项目(读作 Iris squared)是欧洲对 Starlink 和“星盾”的回应。它将是一个以国防为优先的计划,重点面向政府、军队和应急服务。乌克兰已获保证从第一天起就能使用它。

The ambitious project (pronounced Iris squared) is Europe's answer to Starlink and Starshield. It will be a defence-first programme, the European Commission says, with a focus on governments, military and emergency services. Ukraine has been guaranteed access to it from day one.

作为欧盟空间计划的一部分,欧洲卫星公司 Eutelsat、SES 和 Hispasat 正在一个名为 SpaceRISE 的财团中牵头该项目。

Part of the EU's space programme, the European satellite companies Eutelsat, SES and Hispasat are leading the project in a consortium called SpaceRISE.

它拥有的卫星数量仍将远少于 Starlink,在低地球轨道和中地球轨道共有 348 颗 —— 但 Kari Bingen 表示,这不应被视为负面因素。

It will still have far fewer satellites than Starlink, with 348 across low and medium earth orbit - but that shouldn't be seen as a negative, said Kari Bingen.

“想象一下手电筒向下照射 —— 这些卫星能够覆盖更大面积的地球,因此所需数量更少,”她解释道。“这全是权衡 —— 我不认为 Iris² 计划部署较少卫星是一件坏事。” Tourret 则更为怀疑:“恐怕它既不是颠覆性的变革,也不是伟大的救星。”

"Think about a flash light beaming down - those satellites will be able to cover a greater amount of the Earth, so you need fewer of them," she explained. "They're all trade offs - I would not take it as a negative, that Iris² is planning for less satellites." Tourret was more sceptical: "It's no gamechanger and no great saviour, I'm afraid".

保罗·亨尼西/盖蒂图片社 2023年3月,一枚搭载56颗“星链”卫星的SpaceX“猎鹰9”火箭从卡纳维拉尔角发射升空。 欧盟空间政策网站上一段制作精良的视频宣称:“有了‘鸢尾座²号’,欧洲将不再依赖他国获取卫星连接服务。” 那么,这是否意味着乌克兰可以关停“星链”?不能——那不是个好主意。

Paul Hennessy/ Getty Images A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, carrying 56 Starlink satellites, takes off from Cape Canaveral in March A highly-produced video on the EU Space Policy's website declares: "With Iris², Europe will no longer depend on others for satellite connectivity." So does that mean Ukraine could switch off Starlink? No - that wouldn't be a good idea.

一枚搭载56颗星链卫星的SpaceX猎鹰9号火箭于3月从卡纳维拉尔角升空A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, carrying 56 Starlink satellites, takes off from Cape Canaveral in March

“用户需要考虑通信韧性,”宾根表示。“这样,如果某个系统出现问题,你还有其他方式维持连接。” 这类似于手机的工作原理,伊娃·贝尔内克解释道:“如果没有5G,你就退回到4G;如果没有4G,你可能会用3G,因此你拥有多个网络以保障韧性。战争中的道理是一样的。” 但手机在3G网络下可能只是加载图片变慢,对无人机操作员而言却可能是致命的:“当你身处战火之中,那可不是什么好处境。”

"Users need to think about communications resilience," Bingen said. "So if something happens to one system, you have other ways to maintain connectivity." It's similar to how mobile phones work, explained Eva Berneke: "If you don't have 5G, you go back to 4G. And if you don't have 4G, you might use 3G, so you have multiple networks for resilience. It's the same idea in warfare." But while a phone might not load pictures as quickly on 3G, for a drone operator, it can be deadly: "That is not a nice situation to have to be in when you're fighting a war."

“鸢尾座²号”并非唯一选择。本周,芬兰企业诺基亚和ICEYE宣布,将探讨为乌克兰军事防御开发卫星通信。

Iris² is not the only option. This week, Finnish companies Nokia and ICEYE announced they would look at developing satellite communications for Ukraine's military defences.

由欧洲卫星制造商空中客车、莱昂纳多和泰雷兹组建的合资企业“布罗莫计划”,有望成为SpaceX的另一竞争对手,但目前仍处于非常早期的阶段。贝尔内克表示,航天项目耗时漫长,且需要“大量”资金。

And a joint venture between European satellite makers Airbus, Leonardo and Thales, called Project Bromo, is hoped to be another competitor against SpaceX, but it is still in the very early phases. Space projects take a long time, Berneke said, and need "a lot of money".

设计方案、制造卫星、发射入轨,再到拥有足够数量的卫星在轨运行以实现全覆盖,需要数年时间。

Designing the programme, making the satellites, launching them and then having enough of them in orbit for full coverage takes many years.

她解释道:“即使你现在给我80亿欧元,我认为在2032年至2033年之前也无法让任何东西上天。”

"Even if you gave me €8bn right now, I don't think I could have anything up there before 2032-2033," she explained.

为何太空成为新的国防前沿 军事航天活动并非新事物,自20世纪50年代航天时代伊始便已存在。但乌克兰冲突展示了它对现代战争是何等不可或缺。

Why Space is the new defence frontier Military work in Space is nothing new, and has been happening since the dawn of the space age in the 1950s. But the conflict in Ukraine has shown how integral it is to modern warfare.

“通信至关重要,而地面通信平台,无论是5G还是光纤,都可能在地面遭到攻击,”伯内克说。“击落整个卫星网络要难得多。目前没有任何军队能做到这一点。”然而,当我们仰望天空时,世界上绝大多数通信实际上是通过海底光缆传输的——比例约为99%。但这些光缆容易遭受攻击——本周,英国政府在俄罗斯船只可疑活动增加后,概述了保护其光缆的新措施。

"Communication is so important, and terrestrial communication platforms, whether it's 5G or fibre, can be attacked on the ground," Berneke said. "It is a lot harder to shoot down an entire satellite network. That's not something any military can do right now." While we look to the skies, however, most of the world's communications are travelling via undersea cables - about 99% in fact. But these are vulnerable to attack - this week the UK government outlined new measures to protect its cables, after an increase in suspicious activity by Russian vessels.

“在危机或冲突中,人们严重担心海底光缆会被切断……所以如果发生这种情况,拥有卫星通信作为备份是件好事,”卡里·宾根说。阿纳斯塔西娅·列夫琴科补充报道

"In a crisis or conflict, there are serious concerns that undersea cables will be cut... so if that happens it's good to have satellite communication as a backup," Kari Bingen said. Additional reporting by Anastasiia Levchenko

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