The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has disputed an analysis of deportations under President Donald Trump, defending its immigration crackdown after the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimated that the administration had deported about 980,000 people during its first 18 months in office.

In a post on X on October 25, DHS called the report “FAKE NEWS” and claimed that most Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removals involved migrants arrested inside the United States. The department also said the country had recorded 17 months with zero releases of migrants at the border and credited Trump with a sharp reduction in illegal immigration.DHS further claimed that more than 3 million undocumented immigrants had left the US since Trump returned to office, describing it as evidence of net negative migration for the first time in more than 50 years.

Trump denies plan to turn White House press room into swimming pool, hints at moving reportersHowever, MPI's October 21 analysis found that most deportations during the period involved people initially intercepted at the US-Mexico border, although arrests inside the country accounted for a growing share of removals.DHS challenges Migration Policy Institute findingsDHS endorsed reporting by Fox News correspondent Brooke Taylor, who said department sources were challenging MPI's figures.

In its October 25 post, the department maintained that most ICE removals originated in the US interior.

The department's post did not include a detailed breakdown to reconcile its position with MPI's findings.

The institute based its analysis on federal data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests and records from the Deportation Data Project. According to MPI report, the estimated 980,000 deportations included removals and returns recorded by ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) between January 20, 2025, and July 31, 2026.US starts approving H-1B petitions without Trump’s $100,000 feeWhat the deportation data showMPI found that 69% of deportations during the period involved people initially intercepted at the border.

Meanwhile, deportations following arrests inside the US accounted for 28% of cases in 2025, rising to 39% by July 2026. The monthly average of deportations resulting from interior arrests more than doubled, from 8,000 during the first three months of Trump's second term to 19,000 between May and July 2026, according to the institute.MPI estimated that the administration was on track for approximately 660,000 deportations in fiscal year 2026. That was above the annual average under former president Joe Biden but below Trump's stated target of one million deportations a year.

The analysis also found that 20% of all deportations involved people with criminal convictions. Among those who had lived in the US for at least two years, 71% had no criminal conviction.DHS claim of 3 million departures disputedMPI's estimate of deportations is separate from DHS's claim that more than 3 million undocumented immigrants have left the country, which includes people who departed voluntarily. The institute estimated between 1.3 million and 2.4 million total departures from January 20, 2025, to July 31, 2026, when accounting for border turnarounds and deportations involving people who had been in the country for less than a year.

It said a precise count was difficult because the government does not comprehensively track voluntary departures.MPI concluded that it was highly unlikely that 3 million undocumented immigrants had left the country during the period.