
以色列人将于周二前往投票站参加立法选举。此次投票是自2023年10月7日哈马斯领导的针对以色列的袭击,以及随后针对加沙地带巴勒斯坦人的种族灭绝战争以来的首次选举,被认为是该国历史上最重要的选举之一。随着以色列深陷多场持续多年的冲突,面临日益增长的国际批评,并努力应对国内不断加剧的极化现象,此次选举将决定以色列政府的发展方向。以下是关于即将到来的选举需要了解的五件事:主要政党有哪些?民意调查显示了什么?
Israelis will head to the polls on Tuesday for legislative elections. The vote, the first since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent genocidal war against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, is being called one of the most important in its history It will determine the direction of Israel’s government as the country remains embroiled in multiple years-long conflicts, faces growing international criticism and grapples with deepening polarisation at home. Here are five things to know about the upcoming election: Which are the main parties and what do opinion polls suggest?
任何跨越3.25%选举门槛的政党均可进入议会,议会任期为四年。目前有两个主要阵营在争夺下一届政府的领导权。
Any party clearing an electoral threshold of 3.25 percent enters parliament, whose term lasts four years. There are two main blocs vying to lead the next government.
第一个是支持内塔尼亚胡的联盟,由总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团牵头,多个极右翼和极端正统派政党加入。其中包括“圣经犹太教联盟”(UTJ)和“沙斯党”(Shas)——这两个都是保守的宗教政党——以及分别由极右翼部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔和比撒列·斯莫特里赫领导的“犹太力量党”和“宗教犹太复国主义-身份党”。
The first is the pro-Netanyahu coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and joined by several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. These include United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas – both conservative religious parties – and Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led respectively by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
主要反对派联盟由四个以犹太人为主导的反对派运动组成——由前以色列军队参谋长加迪·埃森科特领导的“亚沙尔党”、由前军队副总参谋长亚伊尔·戈兰领导的“民主党”、由前财政部长阿维格多·利伯曼领导的“以色列是我们的家园党”,以及由前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特领导并有议会反对派领袖亚伊尔·拉皮德加入的“在一起联盟”。
The main opposition coalition comprises four Jewish-led opposition movements – the Yashar party, led by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats, led by former deputy military chief of staff Yair Golan, the Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by former Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the Together alliance, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and joined by Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid.
在周五禁止发布新民调之前公布的最新民意调查显示,两个阵营均未有望获得议会61个席位的多数席位。
The latest opinion polls published before a ban on new surveys took effect on Friday showed that neither bloc was on course to secure a parliamentary majority of 61 seats.
公共广播公司KAN的一项民意调查预测,反对派联盟将赢得以色列议会120个席位中的52席,而内塔尼亚胡的阵营将获得50席,其余席位由无党派政党获得,其中包括该国两个主要的阿拉伯人占多数的政治名单——也被称为“联合阿拉伯名单”的拉姆党(Ra’am),以及由哈达什党(Hadash)、巴拉德党(Balad)和塔阿尔党(Ta’al)组成的联盟“联合名单”(Joint List)。
A poll by public broadcaster KAN projected that the opposition alliance would win 52 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, compared with 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc, with the remaining seats going to unaffiliated parties, including the country’s two main Arab-majority political lists – Ra’am, also called the United Arab List, and the Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Balad and Ta’al parties.
然而,支持内塔尼亚胡和反对内塔尼亚胡的两个阵营目前实际上都已经排除了与阿拉伯人领导的政党联手的可能性。
However, both the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs have effectively ruled out joining forces with the Arab-led parties for now.
这种分裂的局面意味着,以色列各政党可能需要进行艰难的选后谈判,以拼凑出一个执政多数派。如果这些努力失败,以色列最终可能会出现一个依赖执政联盟之外政党支持的少数派政府,或者可能走向新一轮选举。关键议题是什么?在本次选举周期中,以色列人正面临一系列国内和国际危机。
The fractured landscape means Israeli parties could be in for tough post-election negotiations to cobble together a governing majority. If those efforts fail, Israel could end up with a minority government reliant on support from parties outside the governing coalition – or potentially head to another round of elections. What are the key issues? Israelis are grappling with a series of domestic and international crises this election cycle.
在国内方面,人们对据报存在的安全失误(包括导致2023年10月袭击事件的失误)追究责任的呼声日益高涨,对日益壮大的极端正统派社区享有兵役豁免感到愤怒,并对内塔尼亚胡一再推动司法改革的努力感到担忧,批评人士称这些改革破坏了以色列的自由民主秩序。
On the domestic front, there is growing demand for accountability for reported security failures, including those leading up to the October 2023 attacks, anger over the growing ultra-Orthodox community’s military exemption and concern over Netanyahu’s repeated efforts to push judicial reforms that critics say undermine Israel’s liberal democratic order.
以色列裔美国评论员、国际危机组织高级分析师梅拉夫·宗泽因(Mairav Zonszein)告诉半岛电视台:“以色列的世俗和自由派反对阵营认为,这次选举是拯救以色列民主、恢复在内塔尼亚胡连续任期内遭到侵蚀的各项制度的最后机会。”
“The secular and liberal opposition factions in Israel feel this election is the last chance to save Israeli democracy and restore the institutions that have eroded over Netanyahu’s successive terms,” Mairav Zonszein, an Israeli-American commentator who is a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.
厌倦了战争的公众也在权衡以色列应如何处理其多重军事冲突,许多选民在寻求安全和经济稳定的同时,仍然抵制在加沙、被占领的约旦河西岸和黎巴嫩做出他们认为的让步。是什么让这次选举如此重要?
A war-weary public is also weighing how Israel should proceed with its multiple military conflicts, with many voters seeking security and economic stability while remaining resistant to perceived concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon. What makes this election so important?
这是以色列自2023年10月袭击事件以来的首次选举,举行之际正值极右翼态度高涨,且国内对于国家发展方向的分歧日益加剧。
It is Israel’s first election since the October 2023 attacks and comes amid a surge in far-right attitudes and growing divisions over the direction of the country.
“以色列社会的紧张局势一直倾向于暴力和右翼言论,但这些一直存在的趋势在现任政府领导下加速了,”以色列著名社会学家耶胡达·申哈夫-沙拉巴尼(Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani)告诉半岛电视台。
“Strains of Israeli society had always been given to violence and right-wing rhetoric, but the trends that had always been present had accelerated under the current government,” prominent Israeli sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani told Al Jazeera.
此次选举举行之际,以色列的国际地位也已恶化,许多以色列盟友对其在被占领的约旦河西岸的非法定居点实施了制裁,其他许多国家也谴责该国在加沙和黎巴嫩持续进行的袭击。
The election also comes as Israel’s international standing has deteriorated, with a host of Israel’s allies sanctioning its illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, and many other nations denouncing the country’s continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.
9月24日,当内塔尼亚胡在联合国大会发表讲话时,来自世界各地的数十名外交官退场,其中一些人发出嘲笑和嘘声。
When Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys from around the world walked out some jeering and booing.
即将到来的投票结果可能会决定以色列下一届政府是维持其对待国际社会的方针,还是寻求修复关系。这对内塔尼亚胡的政治前途意味着什么?
The outcome of the upcoming vote could determine whether Israel’s next government maintains its approach to the international community or seeks to repair ties. What does it mean for Netanyahu’s political future?
内塔尼亚胡是以色列任职时间最长的总理,在过去17年中,他领导该国超过15年,总计任职19年。他因导致10月7日袭击事件的安全失误指控,以及自2019年以来一直面临的腐败指控,在国内外受到越来越多的审视。
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister who has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years, and a total of 19, faces growing scrutiny at home and abroad over alleged security failures leading up to the October 7 attack, as well as corruption charges he has been battling since 2019.
选举失败也将使内塔尼亚胡在正在进行的腐败审判中更加脆弱,如果他被定罪,最终可能导致监禁。
An electoral defeat would also leave Netanyahu more exposed to his ongoing corruption trial, which could ultimately result in a prison sentence if he is convicted.
新政府还可能影响针对2023年10月袭击事件进行潜在调查委员会的前景,以及内塔尼亚胡的政治地位,因为他正面临国际刑事法院发出的战争罪逮捕令。以色列的巴勒斯坦公民情况如何?
A new government could also affect the prospects of a potential commission of inquiry into the October 2023 attacks and Netanyahu’s political standing as he faces an arrest warrant for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court. What about Palestinian citizens of Israel?
约有730万以色列公民有资格在周二的选举中投票,其中包括约120万以色列的巴勒斯坦公民。
About 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote in Tuesday’s election, including Palestinian citizens of Israel, who number about 1.2 million.
与此同时,加沙、被占领的约旦河西岸和被占领的东耶路撒冷约300万巴勒斯坦成年人,对自己边境、行动和法律地位的管控政府毫无发言权。
Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem have no say in the government that controls their borders, movement and legal status.
近期民调显示,以色列境内的巴勒斯坦公民投票率可能达到60%,预计多数选票将投给作为以色列巴勒斯坦公民主要代表的阿拉伯政党名单。如果投票率达到65%,这些政党有望在议会赢得最多15个席位。竞选活动人士的目标是实现70%的投票率,这将是几十年来最高的一次,并会提高门槛,将较小的政党挡在议会之外。
Recent polling suggested that the turnout among the Palestinian citizens of Israel could reach 60 percent, with the majority of the votes expected to go the Arab lists, which are the principal representatives of Palestinian citizens of Israel. If turnout reaches 65 percent, these parties could potentially win as many as 15 seats in the Knesset. Campaigners are aiming for 70 percent turnout, which would be the highest in decades and raise the threshold, keeping smaller parties out of parliament.
上个月,以色列中央选举委员会投票禁止“联合名单”和“拉阿姆党”参加选举。
Last month, Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted to bar the Joint List and Ra’am from the election.
以色列最高法院迅速推翻了这一决定,使阿拉伯政党得以继续参选。然而,法院确实迫使巴拉德党领导人萨米·阿布·谢哈德退出了竞选,原因是他曾在一篇文章中将10月7日的袭击描述为“一个重要的历史事件”。
Israel’s top court quickly reversed that decision, enabling the Arab parties to stay in the race. However, the court did force Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw from the race over an article in which he described the October 7 attacks as “an important historical event”.
阿拉伯政党的作用将十分重要。目前,两大主要联盟都排除了与他们联手的可能,但如果没有他们,任何一个联盟都可能无法形成多数派。
The role of Arab parties is going to be significant. Both major coalitions have ruled out joining forces with them for now, but without them, neither coalition might be able to form a majority.
内塔尼亚胡一再试图将他的对手描绘成阿拉伯政党的潜在合作伙伴,声称反对派领导的政府将寻求他们的支持,而只有他的利库德集团才能阻止这种情况发生。
Netanyahu has repeatedly sought to portray his opponents as potential partners of the Arab parties, claiming that an opposition-led government will seek their support and that only his Likud party can prevent this.
以色列议会议员艾曼·奥德的前助手约瑟夫·曼苏尔表示,在政治上疏远阿拉伯政党是内塔尼亚胡政治策略的一部分;如果两个联盟都无法形成多数派,这可能使他能够以看守总理的身份继续留任。
Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Israeli Knesset member Ayman Odeh, said politically alienating Arab parties is part of Netanyahu’s political strategy, which could allow him to remain in office as a caretaker prime minister if neither coalition forms a majority.
曼苏尔为华盛顿阿拉伯中心撰文称:“如果巴勒斯坦人领导的政党支持在政治上变得具有毒性,且反对派未能获得61个席位,那么这种僵局本身就成了内塔尼亚胡最新的胜利。”
“If Palestinian-led party support becomes politically toxic and the opposition falls short of 61 seats, the deadlock itself becomes the latest win for Netanyahu,” wrote Mansour for the Arab Center Washington DC.