
据政府债券交易商称,英国准备更多地利用短期债务,这一转变可能会降低英国国债收益率,并缓解该国紧张的公共财政压力。
The UK is poised to make greater use of short-term debt, according to government bond dealers, a shift that could bring down gilt yields and ease pressure on the country’s strained public finances.
预计政府将在10月28日公布首相安迪·伯纳姆及其财政大臣约翰·希利上任后的首份预算案时,更新有关扩大国库券市场的计划。此前,政府曾在5月份宣布,将在本财年结束前引入12个月期国库券,以补充现有的1个月、3个月和6个月期品种。
The government is expected to update investors on plans to expand the Treasury bill market on Oct. 28, alongside the first budget from Prime Minister Andy Burnham and his chancellor, John Healey. That comes after the government announced in May that it will introduce a 12-month bill before the end of the fiscal year to complement existing one, three and six-month tenors.
英国传统上依赖长期债券进行借贷,而扩大国库券市场将使其能够利用对短期到期债务日益增长的需求,同时可能降低其利息支出。对于一个在预算案出台前因借贷成本上升而导致本已微薄的财政缓冲被蚕食的政府来说,任何节省下来的资金都将受到欢迎。
The UK has traditionally relied on longer-dated bonds for borrowing, and building out the Treasury bill market would allow it to tap growing demand for debt that matures quickly while potentially lowering its interest payments. Any savings would be welcome for a government whose already-thin fiscal buffer has been eaten away ahead of the budget by higher borrowing costs.
美国银行利率策略师马克·卡普尔顿表示:“缩短发行债务的加权平均期限,有可能降低英国国债收益率,或减轻其上行压力。通过在收益率曲线的较短端发行债务,可以降低平均利息成本。同时,通过减少10年期国债的发行量,也能降低你在这些债券上支付的利率。”根据彭博社对10家一级交易商的调查估算中值,本财年国库券的净发行总额将达到110亿英镑(约合147亿美元)。
“Scaling back the weighted average maturity of issuance has the potential to reduce, or reduce the upward pressure on, gilt yields,” said Mark Capleton, a rates strategist at Bank of America Corp. “You reduce the average interest cost by issuing shorter on the curve. And you reduce the rate you pay on, say, the 10-year gilts you issue by issuing fewer of them.”Net issuance of Treasury bills will total £11 billion ($14.7 billion) in the current fiscal year, according to the median of 10 estimates from primary dealers surveyed by Bloomberg.
这与上一财年大致持平,但远高于英国债务管理办公室4月份预测的50亿英镑。交易商预计明年发行量将大幅增加,加拿大皇家银行资本市场公司预计发行量将达到250亿英镑。
That’s roughly in line with the previous year, but far above the £5 billion forecast by the UK Debt Management Office in April. Dealers see a sharp increase next year, with Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets pegging issuance at £25 billion.
在债务期限方面,英国是一个特例。2025年,英国约20%的借款是以国库券形式进行的,而经济合作与发展组织成员国的平均水平约为47%。
The UK is an outlier when it comes to the length of its debt. Only about 20% of its borrowing was in the form of bills in 2025, compared to an average of roughly 47% across members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

然而,短期借贷也伴随着风险:债务需要更频繁地进行再融资,如果利率上升,政府将面临更大的风险敞口。在全球债券抛售潮中,英国的借贷成本今年飙升,基准10年期国债收益率达到5.36%,为2007年以来的最高水平。
Yet borrowing for shorter periods comes with a risk: the debt needs to be refinanced more often, leaving governments more exposed if interest rates rise. The UK’s borrowing costs have surged this year amid a global bond selloff, taking benchmark 10-year yields to 5.36%, the highest since 2007.
在英国,有迹象表明投资者对国库券的需求十分旺盛。美国银行的数据显示,每周拍卖的需求一直很强劲,银行在过去几年中也增加了国库券的持有量。英国货币市场基金的资产管理规模增长迅速,这些基金通常投资于政府、银行和企业发行的短期债务。
In the UK, there are signs that investors are hungry for more bills. Demand at weekly auctions has been robust, and banks have increased their bill holdings over the past few years, according to Bank of America. Assets under management at UK money market funds, which typically invest in short-term debt issued by governments, banks and companies, have grown rapidly.
财富管理公司Evelyn Partners的杰森·霍兰兹表示:“客户本质上是在寻找能够跑赢现金的回报,要求结果具有高度的可预测性,并持有能够与未来负债和现金流需求相匹配的资产。”
“Clients are essentially looking for returns that can beat cash, have a high level of predictability in outcomes with holdings that can be matched to future liabilities and cashflow needs,” said Jason Hollands of wealth manager Evelyn Partners.
向短期债务的转变已经显现出一些成果。自9月17日英国央行宣布将停止出售长期国债以来,英国30年期国债收益率下降了11个基点,相比之下,法国国债收益率上升了39个基点,美国国债收益率则下降了5个基点。
The shift toward shorter debt is already showing some results. UK 30-year yields are down 11 basis points since September 17, when the Bank of England said it would halt sales of longer maturity gilts, compared to a 39-basis-point rise in France and a five-basis-point fall in the US.
这有助于吸引包括安联全球投资、Rathbones资产管理公司和皇家伦敦资产管理公司在内的机构进入长期债务市场。
That’s helped draw firms including Allianz Global Investors, Rathbones Asset Management and Royal London Asset Management into longer-dated debt.
卡普尔顿表示:“缩短债务期限对我们来说是一个全球性主题,但没有哪个国家比英国更需要这样做。”
“Maturity reduction is a global theme for us, but nowhere needs it more than the UK,” said Capleton.