法国债券和股市在该国避免了穆迪评级下调后上涨，暂停了近几周来动摇国内资产的抛售潮。
France’s bonds and stocks gained after the nation dodged a downgrade at Moody’s Ratings, pausing a selloff that has roiled domestic assets in recent weeks.
10年期债券（即OAT）收益率下降4个基点至4.98%，而德国同期限债券收益率上升3个基点至3.38%，两者之间的利差收窄7个基点至161个基点。股市上涨，表现优于欧洲同行，欧元兑美元稳报1.1205美元，而大多数十国集团货币下跌。
Yields on 10-year bonds, also known as OATs, fell four basis points to 4.98%, while those on German counterparts rose three basis points to 3.38%, narrowing the gap between the pair by seven basis points to 161 basis points. Stocks rose, outpacing European peers, and the euro was steady at $1.1205 even as most Group-of-10 currencies fell.
穆迪周五维持法国Aa3评级不变，展望为负面，令许多预期会被下调的人感到意外。该机构表示，其基准假设是“尽管面临严峻的政治和社会环境，但到2027年最终将通过一份削减赤字的预算，可能通过法令形式通过。”
Moody’s kept France’s rating steady at Aa3 with a negative outlook on Friday, surprising many who had expected a downgrade. The firm said it’s baseline assumption is that “a deficit-reducing budget for 2027 will eventually be adopted, possibly by decree,” despite the nation’s challenging political and social environment.
巴克莱银行欧洲利率策略主管罗汉·坎纳表示：“穆迪周五决定不下调法国评级，将是对饱受打击的OAT的一个令人愉快的惊喜。”但他质疑该决定带来的顺风能持续多久，理由是即将到来的欧洲央行和美联储利率决定，以及10月通胀数据等一系列潜在触发因素。
“Moody’s decision on Friday to not downgrade France will be a pleasant surprise for a battered OATs,” said Rohan Khanna, head of European rates strategy at Barclays Plc. But he questioned how far the tailwind from the decision will last, citing upcoming European Central Bank and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions as well as inflation numbers for October among a host of potential triggers.
法国CAC 40指数周一盘中最高上涨0.9%，表现优于欧洲同行。巴克莱银行一篮子高国内敞口法国股票上涨1.4%。尽管如此，CAC 40指数在2026年表现落后，下跌约4%，而斯托克欧洲600指数上涨近8%。
France’s CAC 40 Index rose as much as 0.9% on Monday, outperforming European peers. A Barclays Plc basket of French stocks with high domestic exposure gained 1.4%. Still, the CAC 40 is an underperformer in 2026, falling about 4% while the Stoxx Europe 600 gained nearly 8%.
该国不断攀升的债务山由赤字推动，赤字预计将在今年膨胀至经济产出的5.4%。政治僵局、增长放缓和利息成本上升使整固尝试受挫。
The country’s ever-increasing debt mountain is fueled by a deficit set to blow out to 5.4% of economic output this year. Political gridlock, slumping growth and rising interest costs have derailed attempts at consolidation.
总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼提出了一项财政法案，旨在大幅限制支出并提高税收收入，以实现明年5%的赤字目标，但该蓝图的未来充满不确定性，因为他在议会中没有多数席位。法国国民议会周五否决了2027年社会保障预算法案中的“收入”部分，这将使该法律草案的原始版本送交参议院。
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has proposed a finance bill to sharply constrain spending and raise tax revenues to meet a deficit goal of 5% next year, but the blueprint’s future is uncertain as he has no majority in parliament. France’s National Assembly on Friday rejected the “receipts” portion of the 2027 social security budget bill, which sends the original version of the draft law to the Senate.
投资者对政治僵局以及预算通过可能面临障碍的不安情绪，引发了该国债券的抛售。过去一个月，投资者持有法国10年期债券相对于德国同类债券所要求的溢价大幅飙升，上周达到178个基点，为2011年以来的最高水平。
Investors’ unease regarding political deadlock and potential hurdles passing the budget have fueled a selloff in the nation’s bonds. The premium investors demand to hold French 10-year bonds over German peers has surged over the past month, reaching 178 basis points last week, the highest since 2011.
“我们对穆迪没有下调评级感到意外，”木星资产管理公司法国首席投资官皮尔斯·希利尔表示。“也许这只是时间问题。但那里的背景短期内不会好转。”穆迪目前将法国维持在当前评级的决定，意味着其评级仍比标普全球评级和惠誉评级高一个档次，这两家评级机构在2025年秋季的预算冲突期间均下调了对法国的评估。
“We were surprised by Moody’s not downgrading,” said Piers Hillier, CIO at Jupiter on France. “Maybe it’s just a matter of time. But the backdrop there is not getting any better any time soon.”Moody’s decision to keep France at its current level for now means that its score remains one notch higher than those of S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, which both cut their assessments during a budget clash in the fall of 2025.