对人工智能（AI）的担忩情绪给华尔街的反弹行情踩下了刹车，在投资者寻求保护投资组合之际，重振了对美国国债的需求，即便能源价格飙升正在助推通胀。这可能让美联储陷入进退维谷的滞胀困境。
AI skittishness has put the brakes on Wall Street's rally, resuscitating demand for US Treasuries as investors seek to protect portfolios, even as surging energy prices stoke inflation. This could put the Federal Reserve in an unenviable stagflationary bind.
今年大半时间里，美国债券市场一直遭受由飙升的能源价格、财政担忧和AI热潮引发的通胀冲击。其中两股力量依然非常活跃，但债券收益率不再单边走高，上周四10年期美债收益率时隔一个多月再次跌破5%。
For most of this year, the US bond market has been slammed by an inflation-inducing barrage of soaring energy prices, fiscal fears, and the AI boom. Two of those forces remain very much in play, yet bond yields are no longer on a one-way path higher, with the 10-year falling below 5% for the first time in over a month last Thursday.
投资者对AI的情绪正在转酸。虽然没有单一的明显触发因素，但人们长期以来对该技术巨额支出的担忧，因大型科技公司财报披露了庞大的资本支出计划而加剧。AI债券市场也在动荡。尽管这一切可能只是暂时的——只是AI竞赛中的又一个减速带——但情绪的转变表明，我们可能已处于周期中几乎任何消息都是坏消息的阶段。
Investor sentiment around AI is souring. While there has been no single obvious trigger, long-held concerns about the vast sums being spent on the technology have been exacerbated by Big Tech earnings reports detailing gargantuan capital expenditure plans. AI debt markets are wobbling too. While this all may prove to be temporary – just another speed bump in the AI race – the mood shift suggests we may be at the point in the cycle where almost any news is bad news.
如果是这样，这应当会推动“无风险”美债上涨。如果AI巨轮熄火，考虑到该技术已对股市和经济增长变得如此基础性，华尔街和主街（实体经济）也应当会随之熄火。
If so, this should spur a rally in “risk-free” Treasuries. If the AI juggernaut is sputtering, Wall Street and Main Street should sputter too, given how fundamental the technology has become to the stock market and economic growth.
但令人担忧的财政前景并未改变，能源价格再次咆哮上涨，上周美国原油期货上涨10%，升至六个月高点、突破每桶110美元，表明价格压力和通胀预期短期内不会降温。
But the alarming fiscal outlook hasn't changed, and energy prices are roaring higher again, with US crude futures rising 10% last week to a six-month peak above $110 a barrel, suggesting price pressures and inflation expectations aren't cooling anytime soon.
观察 10 年期美国国债收益率走势图便可发现，今年能源价格与债券市场的相关性极高。2026 年 10 年期收益率最低收盘价为 3.96%，出现在 2 月 27 日周五，即美以袭击伊朗的前一天。随后全球原油、天然气和燃油价格飙升，推动国债收益率升至 20 多年来的最高水平，投资者押注通胀压力将加剧。本月初，10 年期收益率曾触及 5.36%。
A glance at a chart of the 10-year Treasury yield shows how closely correlated energy prices and the bond market have been this year. The 10-year yield's lowest daily close in 2026 was 3.96% on Friday, February 27, the day before the US and Israel attacked Iran. The subsequent surge in global crude, gas and fuel prices then propelled Treasury yields to their highest levels in more than two decades as investors bet that inflationary pressures would intensify. The 10-year yield reached 5.36% earlier this month.
但这种关系近期已出现背离。油价从 9 月中旬起回落数周，债券收益率却持续顽强上扬。如今油价大幅反弹，国债收益率反而回落，上周四更出现 20 个基点的大幅下跌。
But that relationship has broken down recently. Oil prices eased for a few weeks beginning in mid-September, but the relentless rise in bond yields continued. Now oil prices have rebounded sharply, yet Treasury yields are in retreat, culminating in last Thursday's steep decline of 20 basis points.
通常情况下，全球能源冲击会拖累经济增长，促使投资者涌入国债市场避险。然而今年大半时间里，人工智能（AI）巨头带来的顺风效应使经济和华尔街保持活跃。
Typically, a global energy shock would be expected to slow economic growth, causing investors to flee to the Treasury market. However, for most of this year, the tailwind from the AI juggernaut has kept the economy and Wall Street humming.
如果 AI 叙事正在转向，债券投资者将不得不权衡 AI 泡沫破裂可能带来的估值毁灭和经济后果。这似乎抵消了对“高位持久”能源价格的任何担忧。但重新转向国债未必是一键即可切换的简单开关。因为“滞胀”可能重回投资者的词汇表。
If the AI narrative is turning, bond investors will have to consider the potential valuation destruction and economic fallout from a deflating AI bubble. That appears to be offsetting any fears of "higher-for-longer" energy prices. But the move back toward Treasuries may not be a simple switch to flick. That’s because "stagflation" could return to investors' lexicon.
增长停滞与通胀粘性并存的组合将给联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）带来棘手局面。尽管它在 9 月加息，但几乎可以肯定将在本周三维持利率不变，以应对下周的中期选举。市场仍预期未来几个月还会再次收紧，但这建立在通胀压力超过 AI 动荡的假设之上。
A mix of stagnant growth and sticky inflation would complicate life for the Federal Open Market Committee. While it raised its policy rate in September, it will almost certainly keep it on hold this Wednesday ahead of next week's midterm elections. Markets still expect it to tighten again in the coming months, but that assumes inflationary pressures outweigh AI wobbles.
上周，以通胀互换衡量的为期一年的市场通胀预期攀升至 2.80%，为 6 月以来最高。不过，长期通胀互换利率的涨幅没那么大，表明投资者不认为能源冲击会深度嵌入商品和服务价格之中。美联储决策者大概率会押注这一点。但这是一场冒险的赌注。
Last week, one-year market-based inflation expectations climbed to 2.80%, as measured by inflation swaps. That’s the highest since June, though the rise in longer-dated inflation swap rates has been less dramatic, suggesting investors don't believe the energy shock will become deeply embedded in higher goods and services prices. Fed policymakers will likely be banking on that. But it's a risky bet.
生产者价格通常是消费者价格的先行指标，目前正以四年来最快的速度上涨。生产者与消费者价格通胀之间的差距也是四年来最大。值得重申的是，消费者价格通胀已连续近六年高于美联储 2% 的目标。
Producer prices, often a leading indicator of consumer prices, are rising at the fastest pace in four years. The gap between producer and consumer price inflation is also the widest in four years. And it's worth repeating that consumer price inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for close to six years.
瑞银经济学家表示：“预计未来几个月所有主要通胀指标都将上升，因为去年 10 月和 11 月政府停摆带来的基数效应，为通胀上行制造了一个低基数。”“我们预计在明年春天之前，通胀几乎不会缓解”，届时伊朗战争爆发初期的基数效应将开始生效。
"All main inflation measures are expected to increase over the next couple of months as base effects from last year's government shutdown in October and November create a low bar for rising inflation," UBS economists say. "We expect little easing in inflation before the spring of next year," when the base effects from the start of the Iran war kick in.
美联储能否承受得起“透过”最新的能源价格飙升，同时寄希望于 AI 波动不会滚雪球般恶化？
Can the Fed afford to "look through" the latest spike in energy prices, while hoping that the AI wobbles don't snowball?