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华尔街日报

以缓制急可击败伊朗Slow and Steady Can Defeat Iran

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10月25日,霍尔木兹海峡的士兵。Scpo Amanda Dunford / Dod / Scpo Amanda Dunford / Dod / Planet Pix / ZUMA PressSoldiers in the Strait of Hormuz, Oct. 25. Scpo Amanda Dunford / Dod / Scpo Amanda Dunford / Dod / Planet Pix / ZUMA Press

无论特朗普总统决定袭击伊朗是否明智,他已为今后的战争找到了一种最不坏的军事战略:封锁霍尔木兹海峡,同时护送友方船只通行。这一战略在遏制全球油价飙升的同时,加大了对伊朗的压力。

Whatever the wisdom of President Trump’s decision to attack Iran, he has found the least bad military strategy for the war going forward: blockading the Strait of Hormuz while escorting friendly shipping through. This strategy has kept global oil prices from going through the roof while squeezing Iran harder.

除非伊朗先行升级,特朗普应坚持这一战略。时间站在美国一边,成本虽高但可控。重启或升级空战将是一场巨大且充满风险的赌博。

Unless Iran escalates first, Mr. Trump should stick with it. Time is on America’s side, and costs, while high, are limited. A renewed or intensified air war would be a giant and fraught roll of the dice.

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