经济学家表示，导致法国及整个欧洲爆发大规模抗议和暴力事件的不满情绪是一个“警示信号”，如果澳大利亚不就预算问题进行“坦诚对话”，也可能走上同样的道路。
The explosion of discontent that led to major protests and violence in France and across Europe is a "warning signal" that Australia could follow the same path without an "honest conversation" about the budget, economists say.
周六，数十万人在法国各大城市游行，抗议学校经费不足，教师人数不足和基础设施破败的抱怨与对生活成本压力的更广泛不满交织在一起。
Hundreds of thousands marched in cities across France on Saturday to protest against school underfunding, as complaints of insufficient teacher numbers and dilapidated infrastructure mingled with broader discontent about cost-of-living pressures.
在澳大利亚以及整个发达世界，人们都在努力应对负担能力危机，家庭正艰难应对高企且不断上涨的物价。
Here, and across the developed world, people are struggling to cope with the affordability crisis as households grapple with high and rising prices.
各个国家面临的挑战规模可能不在一个量级上，但不满情绪是共同的。
The scale of the challenges in individual countries may be of a different order of magnitude but the grievances are common.
悉尼大学经济学高级讲师卢克·哈蒂根表示，法国的不满情绪显然并非由单一因素造成，但能源成本飙升正在产生重大影响。
Luke Hartigan, a senior economics lecturer at the University of Sydney, said it was clear there was no single factor behind the discontent in France but soaring energy costs were having a major impact.
法国民众的不满情绪已持续发酵数月，并因生活成本压力而加剧。今年法国燃油价格上涨了36%，是澳大利亚涨幅的三倍。随着北半球临近冬季，美国-以色列对伊朗的战争导致欧洲天然气价格飙升。
Fuel prices are up 36% this year in France, or three times the increase in Australia. The US-Israel war on Iran has sent European gas prices soaring as the northern hemisphere approaches winter.
然而，更根本的问题在于，法国慷慨的福利国家制度正使其财政不堪重负。
More fundamental, however, is that France's finances are buckling under its generous welfare state.
哈蒂根表示，法国高企的公共债务、停滞的经济和全民社会保障福利造成了一种“二元”局面——公民对更好服务和生活成本援助的要求与该国日益严峻的财政状况发生冲突。
France's high public debt, stagnant economy and universal social security benefits have created a "binary" situation, Hartigan said, where citizens' demands for better services and cost-of-living help are clashing with the country's increasingly dire fiscal position.
自1974年以来，法国从未实现预算平衡。与此同时，根据国际货币基金组织的数据，公共债务总额占经济的比重已膨胀至近120%。
France has not balanced its budget since 1974. Meanwhile, total public debt as a share of the economy has swelled to nearly 120%, according to the International Monetary Fund.
相比之下，澳大利亚政府债务总额占GDP的53%，看起来尚属温和。但十年前，我们的债务占GDP的40%，再往前十年，这一比例仅略低于10%。
Australia's total government debt pile looks benign in comparison at 53%. But a decade ago our debt was 40% of GDP, and a decade before that it was just under 10%.
哈蒂根表示，法国疲弱的经济加剧了其财政问题，这凸显出澳大利亚必须努力提升生产率。
Hartigan said France's lacklustre economy had compounded its fiscal problems, underlining how Australia needed to work hard to boost productivity.
“如果考虑发展轨迹，它们（法国面临的挑战）让我们大致了解到，如果继续沿着这条路走下去，我们可能会落到什么境地，”哈蒂根说。“这是一个警告信号。”
"If you think about trajectories, they [France's challenges] give us an idea of where we could potentially be if we continue down this path," Hartigan said. "It's a warning signal."
澳大利亚国立大学税收与转移支付政策研究所所长鲍勃·布罗伊尼希表示，选民认为政府应当能够做到的事情，与政客能够兑现的事情之间，差距正在不断扩大。
Bob Breunig, the director of the ANU's Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, said there was a growing gap between what voters believed the government should be able to do, and what politicians were able to deliver.
“各地都在发生的一件事是这种叙事：政府应当能够解决你的所有问题，而这种叙事在欧洲可能比在我们这里被推得更远。两边都在失败，但那边的问题比这边更尖锐，”布罗伊尼希说。
"One thing that is happening everywhere is this narrative that the government should be able to solve all your problems, and that narrative has probably been pushed further in Europe than it has here. It's failing in both places but it's pointier there than here," Breunig said.
国际货币基金组织的数据显示，这种对政府干预日益增长的需求，其证据就是法国公共支出如今已占经济总量的58%。
The evidence of this growing demand for government intervention is that French public spending now accounts for 58% of the economy, the IMF data shows.
相比之下，澳大利亚公共支出总额相当于我国国民产出的40%——这是自1990年有数据以来的最高水平（疫情时期除外），与美国和英国的水平相近。
In contrast, Australia's total public spending is equivalent to 40% of our national output – the highest in data stretching back to 1990, outside the pandemic, and at similar levels to the United States and the United Kingdom.
“所有这些抗议者都在要求政府帮他们解决问题，但政府已经把信用卡刷爆了，”布罗伊尼希说。他还表示，法国的债务“正达到无法管理的水平”。
"All these protesters are asking the government to help them out, but the government has maxxed out the credit card," Breunig said, who said France's debt was "reaching levels that are unmanageable".
“我们这里的联邦政府仍然可以借贷，而且有很大的灵活性，而法国人就是没钱了。”总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙执政的十年间，遏制支出的尝试屡屡失败。“确实有一种人们不知所措的感觉，”布罗伊尼希说。债券市场反映出人们对法国财政轨迹日益加剧的担忧。
"The federal government here can still borrow and has a lot of flexibility, and the French just have no money." President Emmanuel Macron's decade in power has been marked with failed attempts to rein in spending. "There's a real sense that people don't know what to do," Breunig said. The bond market reflects growing alarm with France's fiscal trajectory.
法国10年期债务的利率通常高于财政审慎的德国，而两者利率之差是衡量金融市场对法国财政状况信心的一个指标。
France typically has to pay a higher interest rate on its 10-year debt than fiscally prudent Germany, and the gap between the two rates is a measure of financial markets' confidence in France's fiscal position.
那一差距现在已达到自 2011 年欧洲债务危机以来的最大幅度。
That gap is now at its widest since the European debt crisis in 2011.
在老龄化人口、国家残疾保险计划（NDIS）、更高利率以及对国防支出更大推动的结构性预算压力下，布鲁尼格同意澳大利亚有必要吸取教训，防止国家偏离过远并持续过久。
Amid structural pressures on the budget from an ageing population, the NDIS, higher interest rates, and the push for greater spending on national defence, Breunig agreed there were lessons for Australia in not allowing the country to drift too far and for too long.
“我们需要一次诚实的公共对话，讨论政府可以做什么、不能做什么，然后再讨论这将花费多少，以及我们是否愿意为此付费。”尽管反对派批评高额政府支出对经济活力的抑制作用，布鲁尼格表示他对修复预算是降低支出还是提高税收总体上持“无所谓”态度。“归根结底，做出这些决定正是民主的意义所在。”
"We need an honest public conversation about what the government can be expected to do and what it can't, and then a conversation about how much that would cost and whether we are willing to pay for that." While the opposition has attacked what it sees as the deadening effect of high government spending on economic dynamism, Breunig said he was broadly "agnostic" whether repairing the budget involved lower spending or higher taxes. "At the end of the day, making these decisions is exactly what democracy is for."