特拉维夫——以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡和主要反对派候选人加迪·艾森科特在风格、背景以及一系列以色列选民关心的问题上截然不同。但在外界最关心的问题上——加沙的未来、与伊朗的战争以及巴勒斯坦国的建立——这位断断续续执政以色列19年的人与他的挑战者之间的实质性分歧要小得多。
TEL AVIV—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the leading opposition candidate, Gadi Eisenkot, couldn’t be more different in terms of style, background and a host of issues that matter to Israeli voters. But on the questions that matter most to the rest of the world—the future of Gaza, the war with Iran and a Palestinian state—the substantive differences between the man who has governed Israel on and off for 19 years and his challenger are narrower.
以色列人将于周二进行自2023年10月7日哈马斯发动袭击以来的首次全国大选。民调显示，虽然他们担心定居者极端主义日益增长以及对国家体制的威胁，但在许多安全相关问题上，公众实际上是一致的，这反映了自引发加沙战争的袭击发生以来，国家安全事务上出现的向右转向。这种共识正在压缩66岁的艾森科特的施展空间，他于去年组建了中间派政党，如今是内塔尼亚胡的主要挑战者。
Israelis will vote on Tuesday in the first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks. Polls show that while they are worried about growing settler extremism and threats to the country’s institutions, the public is practically united on many security-related questions, reflecting a lurch to the right on national security matters since the attacks that sparked the war in Gaza. That consensus is shrinking the room for maneuver for the 66-year-old Eisenkot, who formed his centrist party last year and is now Netanyahu’s main challenger.
分析人士表示，这位毕生从军、最小的儿子在加沙战斗中阵亡的人，深知武力的局限与代价。尽管如此，他仍主张强硬立场。他说，他将在18个月内结束哈马斯对加沙的统治——无论是通过特朗普总统的和平计划还是通过武力——并曾在本月早些时候告诉以色列电台，他支持在约旦河西岸建设定居点，尽管他表示将打击定居者暴力，并反对建立巴勒斯坦国。
“我坚决反对在河与海之间部署外国军队，”艾森科特补充道，指的是以色列东侧的约旦河和西侧的地中海。
Analysts say the lifelong military man whose youngest son died fighting in Gaza understands the limits and costs of military force. Still, he pushes tough positions. He has said he would end Hamas’s rule in Gaza within 18 months—whether through President Trump’s peace plan or by force—and told Israeli radio earlier in the month that he supported building settlements in the West Bank, though he says he would crack down on settler violence and opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state.“I am adamantly opposed to a foreign army between the river and the sea,” Eisenkot added, referring to the Jordan River on the east side of Israel and the Mediterranean to the west.
这些言论使他在安全问题上的立场与内塔尼亚胡几乎没有区别，内塔尼亚胡领导的右翼利库德集团将这场选举描述为在他与一个将支持建立巴勒斯坦国、并在安全问题上显得软弱的反对派之间做选择。“他们的安全议程，除了约旦河西岸以外，与右翼的并没有实质性区别，”耶路撒冷以色列民主研究所的民调专家、高级研究员塔玛尔·赫尔曼说，“反对派基本上是在用更优雅的方式说同样的话。”
The statements leave little separating him on security issues from Netanyahu, whose right-wing Likud party has cast the election as a choice between him and an opposition that would support a Palestinian state and appear weak on security. Netanyahu’s opponents “are basically saying the same thing in a more elegant way,” said Tamar Hermann, a pollster and senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute think tank in Jerusalem. “Their security agenda, except for the West Bank, is not substantially different from that of the right.”
对许多以色列人来说，这是该国历史上最关键的一次选举。这已成为一场关于77岁的内塔尼亚胡如何应对10月7日及其后果的公投。总理的批评者指责他破坏民主制度、将极端分子引入政府、为政治利益延长战争，并在以色列在加沙战争中的行为引发愤怒浪潮之际损害了以色列的国际地位。总理办公室未回应置评请求。内塔尼亚胡多次表示，他毫不道歉地为以色列而战。
For many Israelis, this election is the most consequential in the country’s history. It has become a referendum on 77-year-old Netanyahu’s handling of Oct. 7 and its aftermath. The prime minister’s detractors say he has undermined democratic institutions, brought extremists into his government, prolonged wars for political gain and sacrificed Israel’s standing abroad amid an upswell of anger about Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war. The prime minister’s office didn’t respond to requests for comment. Netanyahu has repeatedly said he fights unapologetically for Israel.
阿加姆实验室10月的一项民调显示，60%的犹太裔以色列人希望更换总理。即便如此，在以色列的议会制下，选举结果依然难以预测。最近的民调显示，艾森科特领导的“国家团结党”仅以微弱优势领先内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团，双方都无法组建一个能在120席的议会中获得多数的联盟。席位统计可能要持续数天，随后还将进行数周甚至数月的拉锯谈判，以组建一个能够执政的联盟。
An October poll by Agam Labs showed 60% of Jewish Israelis want a new prime minister. Even so, under Israel’s parliamentary system, the elections are too close to call. The most recent polling showed Eisenkot’s Yashar party with just a slight lead over Netanyahu’s Likud party, with neither able to assemble a coalition that would secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The seat count could trickle in for days, followed by weeks or months of horse trading to come up with a coalition that can govern.
在风格和背景方面，这两位领跑候选人截然不同。内塔尼亚胡是一位善于电视表达、经验丰富的政治操盘手。艾森科特是以色列前军队总参谋长，是一位性格粗犷的政治新手，他在加沙战争中失去了一名儿子。艾森科特出生于犹太裔摩洛哥移民家庭，在红海沿岸工业城市埃拉特长大。
In terms of style and background, the two leading candidates couldn’t be more different. Netanyahu is a TV-friendly, veteran political operator. Eisenkot, a former chief of Israel’s military, is a gruff political neophyte who lost a son in the Gaza war. Born to Jewish Moroccan immigrants, Eisenkot grew up in the working-class Red Sea city of Eilat.
他在军队的戈拉尼步兵旅服役。后来，作为领导人，他被视为“达希耶主义”的设计者——该主义以贝鲁特南郊真主党大本营达希耶命名——主张以压倒性武力打击城市地区，以威慑武装团体。是内塔尼亚胡在2014年任命艾森科特为军队参谋长。即使两人后来成为政治对手，艾森科特在10月7日后仍同意加入内塔尼亚胡领导的紧急民族团结政府，并进入战时内阁。几个月后他辞职，指责内塔尼亚胡拖延战争并牺牲以色列人质，总理否认了这一指控。
He served in the military’s Golani infantry brigade. Later, as a leader, he was considered the architect of the Dahiya Doctrine—named for the Hezbollah stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut—which calls for striking urban areas with overwhelming force to deter militant groups. It was Netanyahu who tapped Eisenkot as the military chief of staff in 2014. Even after the men became political adversaries, Eisenkot agreed to join Netanyahu in an emergency national unity government after Oct. 7 and sat on the war cabinet. He resigned months later, accusing Netanyahu of prolonging the war and sacrificing Israel’s hostages, which the prime minister denies.
在国内问题上，艾森科特通过批评约旦河西岸极端定居者的暴力行为为“犹太恐怖主义”，并支持征召极端正统派以色列人入伍，确立了挑战内塔尼亚胡及其联盟的立场。他说，鉴于国际社会的强烈反弹，他目前不支持在内塔尼亚胡内阁刚刚开放竞标的约旦河西岸E1区建设有争议的定居点。
On domestic issues, Eisenkot has carved out positions challenging Netanyahu and his coalition by criticizing violence by extremist West Bank settlers as “Jewish terror” and supporting drafting ultraorthodox Israelis into the military. He says he doesn’t support building controversial settlements in the West Bank E1 area opened for bidding by Netanyahu’s cabinet at this time given the international backlash.
在安全问题上，他与总理的分歧很可能会以一种截然不同的基调从高层浮现。政治分析人士说，艾森科特将寻求途径，引导以色列周边的冲突走向解决。他曾谈到将军事成果转化为外交成果，暗示支持谈判解决，并将内塔尼亚胡在美以轰炸行动期间寻求伊朗政权更迭的目标描述为过于雄心勃勃。
On security issues, his differences with the prime minister would likely emerge in a distinct tone from the top. Political analysts say Eisenkot would look for ways to steer the conflicts around Israel toward a resolution. He has spoken of turning military achievements into diplomatic ones, a nod to negotiated solutions, and has described Netanyahu’s goal of regime change in Iran during the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign as too ambitious.
舆论可能会限制他的选择。以色列人仍担心再次发生类似10月7日的袭击，并支持继续在加沙和黎巴嫩驻军。
Public opinion might limit his options. Israelis remain concerned about the prospect of another Oct. 7-like attack and support continued troop presence in Gaza and Lebanon.
民调显示，与往年相比，现在有更多以色列人支持在以色列占领的约旦河西岸建设定居点，尽管许多以色列人认为国家对定居者暴力行为的处理过于宽容。
There is now greater support for building settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank compared with previous years, according to polls, though many Israelis think settler violence is dealt with too leniently by the state.
根据Agam Labs的民调，近三分之一的犹太裔以色列人表示，由于战争，他们的立场变得更加右倾。民调显示，实施了更严厉巴勒斯坦囚犯待遇条件的极右翼国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔，在以色列青年中尤为受欢迎。
Nearly a third of Jewish Israelis say they have become more right-wing as a result of the war, according to the poll by Agam Labs. Polls show that far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has implemented much tougher conditions for Palestinian prisoners, is especially popular among Israeli youth.
候选人们正在争夺一小部分摇摆选民。在最近的一次竞选活动中，领导中右翼政党的另一位反对派领袖纳夫塔利·贝内特猛烈抨击向巴勒斯坦人做出让步。
The candidates are competing for a narrow band of swing voters. At a recent campaign event, Naftali Bennett, another opposition leader who heads a center-right party, railed against concessions to Palestinians.“The only way for the liberal camp to come to power is to bring between five to 10 seats who voted in 2022 for Netanyahu’s coalition,” said Gayil Talshir, a senior lecturer in political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
耶路撒冷希伯来大学政治学高级讲师盖伊尔·塔尔希尔表示：“自由派阵营上台执政的唯一途径，是争取到5到10个席位，这些席位原本在2022年投给了内塔尼亚胡的联盟。”“要赢得对立面的选民，他们必须用右翼的语言说话。”
“To bring voters from the other side, they have to speak in the language of the right.”
外交官和以色列国内一些人表示，不同的领导层可以通过边缘化内塔尼亚胡及其极右翼部长本-格维尔和贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇等两极分化人物，帮助该国修复国际关系。这两人均因涉嫌煽动针对巴勒斯坦人的暴力行为，被数个西方国家禁止入境。本-格维尔和斯莫特里奇的办公室未回应置评请求。
Foreign diplomats and some in Israel say different leadership could help the country mend international relationships by sidelining polarizing figures such as Netanyahu and his far-right ministers Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, both of whom have been banned from several Western countries for allegedly inciting violence against Palestinians. The offices of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich didn’t respond to requests for comment.“Just changing the government, just changing the people in the government, it’s not going to be enough, we need to change policies,” said Offir Gutelzon, 51, an Israeli tech entrepreneur in Palo Alto, Calif., who is flying back to Israel to vote against Netanyahu.
“仅仅更换政府，仅仅更换政府里的人是不够的，我们需要改变政策，”现居加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托的51岁以色列科技企业家奥菲尔·古特尔松说，他将飞回以色列投票反对内塔尼亚胡。“但显然，第一步是让新人来掌控这列名为以色列的火车的方向盘。”
“But, obviously, the start is to get someone new holding the wheels on the train called Israel.”
撰稿：Anat Peled，邮箱：anat.peled@wsj.com
Write to Anat Peled at anat.peled@wsj.com