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以色列人前往投票站决定内塔尼亚胡的命运Israelis head to polls to decide Netanyahu's fate

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一名男子于2026年10月27日在阿拉伯裔以色列城镇乌姆法赫姆的一个投票站投下选票。— 法新社A man casts his ballot to vote at a polling station in the Arab-Israeli town of Umm al-Fahm on October 27, 2026. — AFP

2026年10月27日,一名男子在阿拉伯裔以色列人城镇乌姆法赫姆的投票站投票。——法新社约730万人有资格投票,主要对手是前军方领导人艾森科特。

A man casts his ballot to vote at a polling station in the Arab-Israeli town of Umm al-Fahm on October 27, 2026. — AFP Some 7.3 million people are eligible to vote Main opponent is ex-military chief Eisenkot.

在这场势均力敌的选举中,似乎没有任何政党拥有明确的执政路径。

No party seen with clear path to power in tight election.

严重分裂的以色列周二迎来大选投票,这是自2023年以色列对加沙开战以来的首次大选,选民将对资深总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡以及该国的右倾趋势作出评判。

A deeply divided Israel heads to the polls on Tuesday for the first time since the launch of Israel's war on Gaza in 2023, with voters delivering their verdict on veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country's rightward drift.

以色列人在持续三年的多战线地区战争的阴影下投票,创伤仍历历在目,问责与安全问题成为竞选的核心议题。

Israelis are casting their ballots in the shadow of three years of multi-front regional wars, with the trauma still fresh and questions over accountability and security central to the campaign.

这场竞争激烈的投票举行之际,以色列在世界舞台上日益孤立,原因包括加沙毁灭性的军事行动、定居点建设激增、被占领的约旦河西岸的暴力,以及该国向强硬右翼宗教民族主义的转向。

The close-fought vote comes as Israel looks increasingly isolated on the world stage, driven by a devastating military campaign in Gaza, soaring settlement construction and violence in the occupied West Bank, and a move towards hard-right religious nationalism.

最后公布的民调显示,以色列任职时间最长的总理内塔尼亚胡与其主要的中翼对手加迪·艾森科特势均力敌。艾森科特是政治新手、前军方领导人,其温和的作风被视为现任总理的对立面。

The last polls to be published showed Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, running neck and neck with his main centrist rival Gadi Eisenkot, a political novice and former military chief whose mild manner is seen as the antithesis of the incumbent.

约730万人有资格投票,其中超过50万年轻人将首次投票。调查显示,他们绝大多数自认属于中右翼或右翼。

Some 7.3 million people are eligible to vote, with more than half a million young people due to cast their ballot for the first time. Surveys show they overwhelmingly identify as centre-right or right-wing.

据估计,数万名以色列人从国外飞回参加投票,这场选举被视为决定其国家未来性质的关键。

Tens of thousands of Israelis are estimated to have flown in from abroad to vote in an election seen as crucial to deciding the future character of their country.

“我认为这是以色列国历史上最重要的选举日之一,”58岁的房地产经纪人乌列尔·布兰德勒在投票前一天在耶路撒冷说。

"I think this is one of the most important election days in the history of the state of Israel," Uriel Brandler, a 58-year-old real estate agent, told in Jerusalem the day before the vote.

以色列阿拉伯主导的“联合名单”政治联盟领袖优素福·贾巴林于2026年10月27日在阿拉伯裔以色列城镇乌姆法赫姆的一个投票站投完票后做出反应。— 法新社Yousef Jabareen, leader of Israel's Arab-led Joint List political alliance, reacts after casting his ballot to vote at a polling station in the Arab-Israeli town of Umm al-Fahm on October 27, 2026. — AFP

以色列阿拉伯政党联盟“联合名单”领导人优素福·贾巴林在阿拉伯裔以色列城镇乌姆法赫姆的一个投票站投票后作出反应,2026年10月27日。——法新社“这个国家在各个方面都确实需要向好的方向改变。”现年77岁的内塔尼亚胡断断续续担任以色列总理已超过19年。

Yousef Jabareen, leader of Israel's Arab-led Joint List political alliance, reacts after casting his ballot to vote at a polling station in the Arab-Israeli town of Umm al-Fahm on October 27, 2026. — AFP "The country definitely needs a change for the better in every aspect." Netanyahu, 77, has served as Israel's prime minister on and off for more than 19 years.

这位精于算计的政治操盘手在竞选期间大力强调自己的安全资历,利用他与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关系,并坚称只有他才能保障以色列人的安全。

The wily political operator focused heavily on his security credentials during his campaign, playing on his relationship with US President Donald Trump and insisting he is the only one who can keep Israelis safe.

10月7日以来的这些年里,内塔尼亚胡领导了多场战争,以色列军队在这些战争中将加沙夷为废墟、占领黎巴嫩南部,并首次在美国帮助下重创宿敌伊朗。

In the years since October 7, Netanyahu led multiple wars that have seen Israeli forces reduce Gaza to rubble, occupy southern Lebanon and for the first time pummel arch-foe Iran with US help.

在国内,以色列人则遭受过来自伊朗、哈马斯、黎巴嫩组织真主党以及也门胡塞武装的轰炸。“不怕采取行动”85岁的退休人士齐波拉·贝内特说,她投票给内塔尼亚胡,“因为他拥有带领国家度过许多艰难时期的经验”。

At home, Israelis have faced bombardment from Iran, Hamas, Lebanese group Hezbollah, and Yemen's Houthi rebels. 'Not afraid to take action' Zipporah Bennett, an 85-year-old retiree, said she was voting for Netanyahu "because he has had the experience of navigating the country through a lot of difficult seasons".

“他得到美国政府的全力支持,”她说,“而且我相信他是一个不怕采取行动的人。”

"He has the full support of the American government," she said, "and I believe he's a man who's not afraid to take action."

内塔尼亚胡于2022年12月重新掌权,将极右翼极端民族主义者带入其执政联盟,此后这些人的政治影响力飙升。

Netanyahu returned to power in December 2022, bringing into his coalition far-right ultra-nationalists who have since seen their political clout skyrocket.

反对派抨击这位总理支持极端正统派政党,这些政党力争让犹太宗教学生继续免服兵役,而军队正面临人员短缺。

The opposition has scorned the premier for his backing of ultra-Orthodox parties fighting to keep exemptions for religious Jewish students from drafting into the military, which faces personnel shortages.

但对内塔尼亚胡最大的批评之一,是他未能为10月7日袭击承担责任,那是该国历史上死亡人数最多的一天。

But one of the biggest criticisms levelled at Netanyahu is his failure to take responsibility for the October 7 attack, the deadliest day in the country's history.

现年66岁的艾森科特已承诺成立一个独立的州调查委员会,调查导致此次袭击的安全失误,而内塔尼亚胡政府一直拒绝这样做。

Eisenkot, 66, has pledged to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the security failures that led to the attack, something Netanyahu's government has resisted.

试图让总理下台的是一个非正式政党联盟,由艾森科特领导的“亚沙尔”党牵头,涵盖从右翼到中左翼的多个政党。

Seeking to unseat the premier is an informal bloc of parties led by Eisenkot's Yashar and spanning from the right to the centre-left.

艾森科特誓言阻止建立巴勒斯坦国,并对以色列定居点表示支持,但承诺打击暴力定居者。

Eisenkot has vowed to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state and expressed support for Israeli settlements, but has promised to crack down on violent settlers.

艾森科特和内塔尼亚胡均未公开表示会与以阿拉伯裔为主的政党名单合作。这些政党代表以色列约21%的人口,如果选举结果如预期般接近,它们可能成为造王者。大多数投票站将于晚上10点(格林尼治时间20:00)关闭。

Neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu have publicly said they would partner with the predominantly Arab lists, which represent some 21% of Israel's population and who could become kingmakers if the results are as close as expected. Most polling stations will close at 10:00pm (2000 GMT).

最终结果可能需要数天才能陆续公布,任何单一政党都极不可能接近在120席议会中取得多数所需的61席。

Final results could take days to trickle in and it is highly unlikely that any single party will come close to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member parliament.

组建任何联盟都可能需要数周或数月,如果谈判失败,可能面临重新选举。

Cobbling together any coalition could take weeks or months, with possible new elections on the horizon if negotiations fail.

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