蒂姆观点：乌克兰能源战的实力天平正在发生转变。在华盛顿，两党对特朗普政府向克里姆林宫抛出丰厚能源诱饵的反对声浪日益高涨。参议院民主党人周一发出严厉警告，称如果他们在下周选举后重新夺回多数席位，将调查任何进口俄罗斯柴油的美国实体。共和党参议员米奇·麦康奈尔也加入抨击行列，在《华尔街日报》专栏中指责特朗普对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的处理方式“在事实层面是错误的，在战略上是幼稚的，在道德上是破产的”。
Tim’s view The balance of power in Ukraine’s energy war is shifting. In Washington, bipartisan blowback is mounting against the Trump administration’s dangling of lucrative energy prizes for the Kremlin. Senate Democrats issued a stern warning on Monday that they plan to investigate any US entity that imports Russian diesel if they regain their majority after next week’s elections. Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell piled on, charging in a Wall Street Journal column that Trump’s handling of Russian President Vladimir Putin is “factually wrong, strategically naive, and morally bankrupt.”
欧盟则坚持其明年终止进口俄罗斯天然气的计划。莫斯科能够利用其石油和天然气从西方榨取让步的日子正在迅速减少。
The EU is sticking to its guns on plans to end Russian gas imports next year. The days in which Moscow will be able to leverage its oil and gas to squeeze concessions from the West are rapidly shrinking.
对俄罗斯轰炸乌克兰能源基础设施的审视也在加强，轰炸昨夜仍在继续；联合国一个委员会周一得出结论，认为这些袭击构成战争罪和反人类罪。随着气温下降，乌克兰令人惊讶地维持电网免于全面崩溃的能力，加上其持续对俄罗斯石油基础设施发动纵深打击的无人机行动，使基辅得以有效实现“能源僵局”——即便不是停火，哥伦比亚大学和卡内基国际和平基金会的学者在《外交事务》上写道。
Scrutiny is also mounting of Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which continued last night; a UN commission concluded on Monday that these attacks constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. As temperatures dwindle, Ukraine’s surprising ability to keep its grid from total collapse, plus its ongoing deep-strike drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, has allowed Kyiv to effectively achieve an “energy stalemate,” if not a ceasefire, scholars at Columbia University and the Carnegie Endowment wrote in Foreign Affairs.
尽管如此，随着更多袭击即将到来，基辅未能采取一些本可让其今冬准备更充分的基本步骤，研究和倡导组织乌克兰设施平台的一份报告得出结论，主要是推迟了可能吸引更多私人投资进入去中心化、并网发电的监管改革。“政府仍在为去年的供暖季做准备，”乌克兰设施平台分析师、国家电网运营商前官员玛丽亚·察图里安告诉我。她说，来自西方捐助者的近1吉瓦替换能源设备也尚未安装。
Still, with more attacks ahead, Kyiv has failed to take some basic steps that would leave it better prepared this winter, a report from the research and advocacy group Ukraine Facility Platform concluded, mainly by putting off regulatory reforms that could entice more private investment into decentralized, grid-connected power generation. “The government is still preparing for last year’s heating season,” UFP analyst Mariia Tsaturian, a former official at the state grid operator, told me. Nearly a gigawatt of replacement energy hardware from Western donors has also not yet been set up, she said.
双方的升级即将到来，这意味着平民将承受更多代价和苦难。迄今为止，这种能源设施破坏与适应的循环，更多是延长了战争，而非推动任何一方走上谈判桌。美国仍有能力扭转局势；中期选举后的未来几周应能更清晰地显示这种杠杆作用将走向何方。
Escalation from both sides is forthcoming, which means more costs and suffering for civilians. So far, this cycle of energy destruction and adaptation has served more to prolong the war than to push either side to the negotiating table. The US still has the power to tip the balance; the next few weeks after the midterm elections should give a clearer sense of where that leverage is headed.
欧洲知名官员预计，如果民主党在中期选举中获胜，美国在俄乌战争问题上的立场仅会取得适度进展，例如恢复卫星服务并加快防空导弹的交付。
Notable European officials expect only modest gains in the US’s position towards the Russia-Ukraine war, such as a restoration of satellite services and an acceleration of the delivery of air defense missiles, if the Democrats win the midterms.