强势美元与高收益率拖累黄金前景，但央行需求提供支撑作者：诺埃尔·约翰 10月27日 - 路透社一项调查显示，由于美国国债收益率高企、美元走强以及利率将在更长时间内维持高位的预期，分析师连续第二个季度下调2026年黄金价格预测，但仍预计2027年金价将回升。
Strong dollar, high yields drag on gold outlook, but central-bank demand lends support By Noel John Oct 27 - Analysts cut their 2026 gold price forecast for a second straight quarter because of high Treasury yields, a strong US dollar and expectations that rates will stay high for longer, but still expect a recovery in 2027, a Reuters survey shows.
这项在过去三周对30位分析师和交易员进行的调查显示，2026年黄金预测中值为每金衡盎司4495美元，低于三个月前估计的4509美元。
The survey of 30 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks returned a median gold forecast of $4,495 per troy ounce for 2026, down from $4,509 estimated three months ago.
2027年预测为4650美元，而此前调查为4610美元。[COMMODS-GOLDPREC/POLL] 金价在1月曾飙升至每盎司5595美元的历史纪录，随后跌至目前的约4000美元，原因是伊朗战争推高了油价和美国国债收益率、提振了美元，并降低了无收益属性的黄金对投资者的吸引力。
The 2027 forecast is $4,650 compared to $4,610 in the previous poll. [COMMODS-GOLDPREC/POLL] Gold surged to a record $5,595 an ounce in January before tumbling to around $4,000 now, as the Iran war drove oil prices and Treasury yields higher, strengthened the dollar and reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion for investors.
“我们预计未来几个月金价将盘整并回升，因为市场焦点将转向去美元化和货币贬值，”渣打银行分析师苏基·库珀表示。
"We expect prices to consolidate and recover in coming months as market focus shifts to de-dollarisation and currency debasement," said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.
央行与财政担忧提供支撑 央行强劲的购金行为和实物需求应会继续为黄金提供支撑。
CENTRAL BANKS, FISCAL CONCERNS LEND SUPPORT Bullion should remain supported by robust central bank purchases and physical demand.
“如果没有黑天鹅事件（但愿不会再有），金价可能会受到印度和中国稳步改善的实物需求的支撑，”StoneX分析师罗娜·奥康奈尔表示。
"Absent a Black Swan (and here's hoping there aren't any more) prices are likely to be underpinned by steady improved physical demand from India and China," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell.
她补充说，各国央行持续购金“正在向市场传递一个关于风险管理的信号，这比实物吨位更重要”。
Continuing purchases by central banks "are sending the markets a message about managing risk, which is more important than the physical tonnage," she added.
工业逆风拖累白银 分析师预计2027年白银均价为每盎司66.75美元，低于今年预测的70.30美元，但高于当前53美元的价格。
INDUSTRIAL HEADWINDS WEIGH ON SILVER Analysts expect silver to average $66.75 per ounce in 2027, down from this year's forecast of $70.30, but up from the current price of $53.
白银兼具贵金属和工业金属的双重属性，使其比黄金更容易受到利率将在更长时间内维持高位预期的影响，分析师提到光伏需求疲软。
Silver's dual role as both a precious and industrial metal has left it more exposed than gold to expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, with analysts citing weakening photovoltaic demand.
他们补充说，制造业中的替代是负面因素，而投资情绪则保持谨慎；此前今年银价出现过剧烈波动，包括1月创下121.60美元的历史新高。
Substitution in manufacturing is a negative, while investment sentiment is cautious, they added, following this year's sharp price swings, including a record high of $121.60 in January.
奥康奈尔表示：“在太阳能目前供应过剩、人工智能承压的情况下，哪怕仅从情绪层面来看，白银的表现也可能逊于黄金。”
"With solar currently oversupplied and AI under pressure, if only from a sentiment standpoint, silver is likely to underperform gold," O'Connell said.
“一些新的投资者兴趣正在悄然出现，但今年ETF的大幅逆转使市场供应过剩。”
"Some fresh investor interest is creeping in, but the big reversal in ETFs this year leaves the market oversupplied."