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金价下滑 油价上涨与美国通胀数据强化美联储加息押注Gold slips as higher oil, US inflation data bolster Fed hike bets

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2025年3月20日,印度孟买,一名员工在一家珠宝店内整理金项链。路透社/弗朗西斯·马斯卡雷尼亚斯/资料照片An employee arranges gold necklaces at a jewellery store in Mumbai, India, March 20, 2025. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo

周五金价下滑,油价上涨引发通胀担忧,且强劲的美国通胀数据强化了美联储年内再次加息的理由。

Gold slipped on Friday as higher oil prices spurred inflation concerns and robust US inflation data strengthened the case for another Federal Reserve rate hike later this year.

现货金于格林威治时间0255下跌0.6%,报每盎司3997.39美元;12月交割的美国黄金期货下跌0.6%,报4007.80美元。金价有望连续第二个月下跌。

Spot gold was down 0.6% at $3,997.39 per ounce by 0255 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.6% to $4,007.80. Bullion was on track for a second consecutive monthly decline.

KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示:“金价的下滑对4000美元关口附近的技术支撑提出了严峻考验。逢低买入此前曾限制跌幅,但仍有待观察价值买入能否挽救金价。”

"Gold’s slide is asking serious questions of technical support around the $4,000 level. Dip buying has previously limited declines, but it remains to be seen whether value buying will come to gold’s rescue," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

“本周美国宏观数据中有足够的看涨指标,令美联储有望维持12月潜在加息的轨道,这加上目前的油价水平,意味着从通胀角度看,黄金持续处于劣势。”由于消费者在汽油和其他商品上支出增加,美国9月通胀加速,支持了经济学家对美联储12月加息的预期。

"There were enough bullish indicators in the US macro data this week to keep the Fed on track for a potential December hike, which combined with oil at present levels means that gold continues to lose out from an inflation perspective." US inflation accelerated in September as consumers paid more for gasoline and other goods, supporting economists' expectations of an interest rate increase from the Fed in December.

较高的利率增加了持有无收益金条的机会成本,降低了其对投资者的吸引力。

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal to investors.

根据芝商所“美联储观察”工具,交易员目前预计12月加息的概率约为75%。

Traders are now pricing in about a 75% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.

周五油价上涨,有望录得连续第四个月上涨,涨幅为7月以来最大,因也门亲伊朗胡塞武装加大对沙特阿拉伯的袭击,引发供应担忧。

Oil prices climbed on Friday, on track for a fourth monthly gain and the steepest since July, on supply concerns after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia.

其他方面,周五公布的数据显示,10月日本东京核心通胀率远超央行2%的目标,凸显物价压力不断上升。

Elsewhere, annual core inflation in Japan's capital well exceeded the central bank's 2% target in October, data showed on Friday, highlighting mounting price pressure.

现货银下跌2.1%,报每盎司51.27美元;铂金下跌1.9%,报1458.85美元;钯金下跌2%,报986.08美元。这三种金属均有望录得周度和月度跌幅。

Spot silver slid 2.1% to $51.27 per ounce, platinum dropped 1.9% to $1,458.85 and palladium fell 2% to $986.08. All three metals were headed for weekly and monthly declines.

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