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金价连续第四个交易日下跌 油价反弹引发通胀担忧Gold dips for fourth session as oil rally fans inflation concerns

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2025年10月8日,英国伦敦哈顿花园的贝尔德公司(Baird & Co)内堆放着英国金条。路透社/希巴·科拉UK gold bullion bars are stacked at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola

周三金价连续第四个交易日走低,因油价上涨引发通胀担忧,同时投资者关注下周美联储政策会议,以寻找未来利率路径的线索。

Gold prices eased for a fourth session on Wednesday as higher oil prices stoked inflationary concerns, while investors looked ahead to next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting for clues on the future path of interest rates.

截至格林威治标准时间0319,现货金下跌0.2%,报每盎司4118.18美元;美国12月交割的黄金期货下跌0.2%,报每盎司4136.20美元。

Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,118.18 per ounce by 0319 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.2% to $4,136.20.

DHF Capital S.A.首席执行官兼资产管理师Bas Kooijman表示:“随着原油价格回升,通胀压力依然存在,强化了鹰派货币政策预期,黄金可能继续承受一定压力。”

"The metal could remain under some pressure as crude prices returned to the upside, keeping inflationary pressures in place and reinforcing hawkish monetary policy expectations," said Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital S.A.

周三油价小幅上涨,因中东供应担忧升温,交易员对红海航运风险及沙特石油基础设施面临的威胁保持警惕。

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday on Middle East supply concerns, with traders wary of Red Sea shipping risks and threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.

Tastylive全球宏观主管Ilya Spivak表示:“此时,如果市场已计入明年加息预期中的部分落空,或至少其可能性降级,那可能会推高金价。”

"At this point, if some of these rate hikes that the markets have baked in for next year fall out of the forecast or at least downgrade in their likelihood, then that's likely to send gold higher," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

据路透社调查的几乎所有经济学家预测,美联储本月将跳过加息,并在12月加息,因为决策者释放耐心信号,即使顽固通胀主张更强硬的回应。

The Fed will skip raising interest rates this month and deliver a hike in December, according to nearly all economists polled by Reuters, as policymakers signal patience even as stubborn inflation argues for a tougher response.

根据CME“美联储观察”工具,市场预期央行在10月27-28日政策会议上加息的概率低至16%,而12月加息的概率仍为90%。

Expectations of a rate hike at the central bank's October 27-28 policy meeting are as low as 16%, while traders still see a 90% chance of a hike in December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

较高利率通常会打压金价,因为它们增加了持有无息黄金的机会成本。美元指数在近期跌势后企稳,进一步削弱了对金条的需求。

Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding the metal, which does not pay interest. The US dollar index stabilized after recent losses, further reducing demand for bullion.

市场还在等待下周美国个人消费支出(PCE)数据,这是美联储监测其2%通胀目标的首选指标。

Markets are also waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data next week, the Fed's preferred gauge to monitor its 2% inflation target.

其他贵金属方面,现货银下跌0.9%,报每盎司57.44美元;铂金下跌0.6%,报每盎司1638.61美元;钯金下跌1.1%,报每盎司1090.84美元。

Among other metals, spot silver slid 0.9% to $57.44 per ounce, platinum dropped 0.6% to $1,638.61 and palladium slipped 1.1% to $1,090.84.

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