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油价推升美联储利率担忧,黄金料将录得陡峭周跌幅Gold heads for steep weekly loss as oil prices fuel Fed rate concerns

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2025年10月8日,英国伦敦哈顿花园的Baird & Co公司内堆放着英国金条。路透社/Hiba KolaUK gold bullion bars are stacked at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola

周五金价回落,料将录得逾四个月来最陡峭的单周跌幅,因油价高企强化了利率“维持更高更久”的预期,同时投资者静候下周美联储货币政策会议。

Gold eased on Friday, headed for its steepest weekly decline in over four months as elevated oil prices bolstered higher-for-longer interest rate expectations, while investors awaited next week's Federal Reserve policy meet.

现货金于格林威治时间0351下跌0.2%,报每盎司4016.27美元,早盘触及7月20日以来最低水平后跌幅略有收窄。本周迄今金价已下跌3.5%,料将创下6月以来最差单周表现。美国12月交割黄金期货下跌0.7%,报4030.40美元。

Spot gold eased 0.2% to $4,016.27 per ounce by 0351 GMT, paring losses slightly after touching its lowest level since July 20 earlier in the session. The metal has fallen 3.5% so far this week, which is poised to be its worst since June. US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.7% to $4,030.40.

Capital.com市场研究主管Monte Safieddine表示,投机者正试图捍卫黄金4000美元的关键关口,因为一旦明确跌破该水平,将发出市场已停止为降息定价、转而为通胀粘性、收益率高企和美元走强定价的信号。

Speculators are trying to defend the key $4,000 level for gold because a clean break below would signal that the market has stopped pricing rate relief and started pricing sticky inflation, elevated yields, and a stronger dollar, said Monte Safieddine, head of market research at Capital.com.

周四油价上涨约4%至五个月高位,此前胡塞武装袭击沙特阿拉伯引发对能源供应进一步中断的担忧。

Oil prices rose about 4% to a five-month high on Thursday after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia stoked concerns of further disruption to energy supplies.

能源价格高企强化了美联储维持“更高更久”利率的预期,推高了持有无收益金条的机会成本。

Elevated energy prices bolster expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates by the Fed, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Safieddine补充道:“地缘政治层面任何进一步升级都有将油价推得更高的风险。油价走高正重燃通胀担忧,推高收益率,并推迟美联储宽松。这对金条而言是一剂难以消受的鸡尾酒。”

"Any further escalation on the geopolitical front risks pushing oil even higher. Higher oil is reviving inflation fears, lifting yields, and delaying Fed easing. That is a difficult cocktail for bullion," Safieddine added.

市场焦点已转向美联储10月27日至28日的政策会议,以及下周的个人消费支出(PCE)数据,该指标受到密切关注,因它是央行在以2%为通胀目标时首选的通胀衡量指标。

Focus has turned to the Fed's October 27-28 policy meeting and next week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a closely watched gauge as it is the central bank's preferred inflation measure as it targets a 2% inflation rate.

交易员普遍预期央行下周将维持利率不变,但对12月加息的预期仍维持在80%。

Traders are largely expecting the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged next week, but expectations for an interest rate hike in December remain at 80%.

与此同时,汇丰分析师周四在一份研究报告中下调了2026年铂金和钯金的平均价格预测,理由是市场基本面变化和投资者抛售。

Meanwhile, analysts at HSBC cut their average 2026 platinum and palladium price forecasts in a research note on Thursday, citing shifting market fundamentals and investor liquidation.

在其他金属中,现货银的价格下跌了1%,至每盎司53.98美元;铂金的价格下跌了0.1%,至1,568.58美元;钯金的价格则保持稳定,为1,054.50美元。这三种金属的价格都预计将在本周继续下跌。

Among other metals, spot silver slid 1% to $53.98 per ounce, platinum fell 0.1% to $1,568.58 and palladium steadied at $1,054.50. All three metals were headed for weekly declines.

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