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唐纳德·特朗普面临难题:伊朗正以创纪录水平袭击霍尔木兹海峡的船只Donald Trump Has a Problem: Iran Is Attacking Ships in the Strait of Hormuz Now at Record Levels

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2025年12月29日星期一,总统唐纳德·特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的海湖庄园俱乐部与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡举行双边会晤。(白宫官方照片,丹尼尔·托罗克摄)President Donald Trump hosts a bilateral meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Monday, December 29, 2025, at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

伊朗针对霍尔木兹海峡商业航运船只的升级行动已达到创纪录水平,新数据显示,10月已成为战争爆发以来最严重的月份。

Iran’s escalating campaign against commercial shipping vessels in the Strait of Hormuz has reached record levels, with new figures showing that October has already become the worst month since the war began.

近几周,数十艘油轮和货船遭到导弹和无人机袭击,与此同时,美国海军仍在努力护送油轮通过这一关键水道。

Dozens of oil tankers and cargo ships have been struck by missiles and drones in recent weeks, even as the United States Navy continues its efforts to move tankers through the critical waterway.

唐纳德·特朗普 2020 年。Creative Commons 照片。

Donald Trump Back in 2020. Creative Commons Photo.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于 2025 年 2 月 21 日星期五在白宫国宴厅举行的与各州州长商业会议上发表讲话。

President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a business session with the nation’s governors, Friday, February 21, 2025, in the State Dining Room of the White House.

路透社 10 月 23 日报道,仅 10 月就记录了至少 28 起袭击。

Reuters reported on October 23 that at least 28 attacks were recorded in October alone.

唐纳德·特朗普,2020年。知识共享照片。Donald Trump Back in 2020. Creative Commons Photo.

自 2 月 28 日战争爆发以来,已报告 110 多起袭击。

More than 110 have been reported since the war began on February 28.

2025年2月21日星期五,总统唐纳德·特朗普在白宫国宴厅与全国各州州长举行的商务会议上发表讲话。(白宫官方照片,哈里森·科佩尔摄)President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a business session with the nation’s governors, Friday, February 21, 2025, in the State Dining Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Harrison Koeppel)

袭击的严重程度和频率不断上升,对该地区商业航运造成巨大影响,新数据显示,周末通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运交通量显著放缓。

The increasing severity and frequency of the attacks are having a huge impact on commercial shipping through the region, with new figures showing that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed significantly over the weekend.

袭击激增之际,旨在谈判结束战争的努力仍陷入停滞,普遍认为唐纳德·特朗普总统正在等待中期选举结束后,再恢复其打击行动。

The rise in attacks comes as efforts to negotiate an end to the war remain stalled, with President Donald Trump widely understood to be waiting until after the midterm elections to resume his strike campaign.

10 月:船只遭袭最严重月份 华盛顿近东政策研究所汇编了新数据,显示自该组织 2017 年开始追踪海上安全事件以来,10 月商船遭袭数量超过以往任何一个月。

October: The Worst Month for Ship Attacks The Washington Institute for Near East Policy compiled the new data, which shows October has seen more attacks on commercial ships than any previous month since the organization began tracking maritime security incidents in 2017.

这意味着这些数字不仅是战争爆发以来最严重的,也是至少过去十年左右最严重的。

This means the figures aren’t just the worst since the war began, but also for at least the last decade or so.

该研究所高级研究员诺姆·雷丹告诉路透社,10 月创下新纪录。国际海事组织的数据支持这一分析。

Noam Raydan, a senior fellow from the institute, told Reuters that October set a new record. Data from the International Maritime Organization support the analysis.

根据最新报告,战争期间已有 30 多艘超大型原油运输船(VLCC),即超级油轮受损,其中 10 月就有 11 艘。

According to the latest reports, more than 30 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), also known as supertankers, have suffered damage during the war, including 11 in October.

这些数字约占全球此类船只舰队的3.5%,每艘船一次可运载约两百万桶原油。

These figures represent roughly 3.5% of the global fleet of such vessels, each capable of carrying around two million barrels of oil at a time.

10月5日和11日形势尤为严峻,仅一周内就有12艘船遭到攻击。

On October 5 and 11, the situation was particularly difficult, with 12 ships coming under attack in just one week.

集装箱船沉没 在最近最严重的事件中,尚未得到美国军事回应的是一艘新加坡注册的集装箱船于10月13日在海峡航行时被击中。

Container Ship Sinks Among the most serious recent incidents, which was still not met by a military response from the United States, was a Singapore-registered container ship being struck on October 13 while traveling through the strait.

路透社报道,该船名为GFS Pride,因不明弹道射弹击中后起火,随后沉没。

According to Reuters, the vessel, GFS Pride, caught fire after an unidentified projectile struck it.

GFS Pride的运载能力相当于2,824个标准集装箱,且当时正航行于近几个月来商业航运屡遭攻击的水域。

The ship then sank.

新加坡海事与港务局证实了此事,称21名船员全部安全,未有人受伤。

GFS Pride had a capacity equivalent to 2,824 standard shipping containers, and it was operating in waters that have seen repeated attacks on commercial traffic in recent months.

10月14日,另一艘新加坡注册船只GFS Giselle遭受船体损伤——但船只仍保持可航行并在未获外部帮助的情况下抵达安全锚地。

Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority confirmed the incident, saying all 21 crew members were safe and that no one was injured.

这两起事件促使新加坡当局谴责伊朗持续针对民用船只,并发出警告称这些攻击违反国际法,危及商船船员安全。

On October 14, a different Singapore-registered vessel, GFS Giselle, sustained hull damage — but the ship remained operational and reached safe anchorage without assistance.

航运交通再次放缓 对商业船只的攻击增加恰逢中期选举活动结束,主要全国民调显示共和党可能表现不佳。

The two incidents prompted authorities in Singapore to condemn the continued targeting of civilian shipping by Iran, and issue a warning that the attacks violate international law and endanger merchant crews.

德黑兰似乎有意破坏特朗普总统帮助其党派维持国会控制的机会——而在袭击升级的同时,特朗普仍未对伊朗发动任何新攻击,以免进一步影响其已在挣扎的民调数字。

Shipping Traffic Slows All Over Again The increase in attacks on commercial ships coincides with the end of the midterm election campaign, in which major national polls seem to indicate that the Republicans are set to perform poorly.

根据劳氏船级社情报机构的数据,9月是自2月28日战争爆发以来,与伊朗无关联船只通过该海峡最繁忙的一个月。该期间共有477艘船只通过海峡,其中231艘进入波斯湾,相比之下,8月为198艘,7月为160艘。

Tehran appears to be deliberately working to destroy President Trump’s chances of helping his party maintain control of Congress — and while strikes escalate, Trump is still holding off from launching any new strikes against Iran that could hurt his already struggling poll numbers. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, September was the busiest month for non-Iranian-linked vessels since the war began on February 28. 477 ships passed through the strait during that period, of which 231 entered the Persian Gulf, compared with 198 in August and 160 in July.

这种大幅恢复延续到了10月——但10月22日发布的数据显示,周度通过量再次开始下降,从9月28日至10月4日的126艘降至10月5日至11日的104艘。这代表下降了17%。气体和油轮的下降尤为明显。同期这些船只的通过量从105艘降至81艘。

That huge recovery continued into October — but data published on October 22 showed that weekly crossings had begun to fall again, this time from 126 between September 28 and October 4 to 104 between October 5 and 11. This represented a 17% decline. The decline was especially noticeable among gas and oil tankers. Crossings for those vessels fell from 105 to 81 over the same period.

上个周末,情况进一步恶化,船舶追踪公司Kpler的数据显示,10月24日周六仅有5艘大宗商品船只通过海峡。次日周日未登记任何通过。相比之下,前一个周末有31艘船只通过。

Over the last weekend, the situation deteriorated further, with data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showing that only five commodity vessels crossed the strait on Saturday, October 24. No crossings were registered the following Sunday. By comparison, 31 vessels crossed during the weekend prior.

新数据显示,两个周末的通过量下降超过80%。尽管许多船只关闭追踪系统以避免成为目标,但最新数据表明,它们再次阻碍了恢复势头——并持续损害共和党维持对国会控制权的机会。

The new figures represent a decline of over 80% over the two weekends. Although many ships switch off their tracking systems to avoid being targeted, the latest data suggests they are again disrupting the recovery — and continuing to hurt the Republicans’ chances of maintaining control of Congress.

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