人工智能债务担忧在一波波动后有所缓解。但更多对AI债务的考验即将到来。
Fears over artificial intelligence debt have eased after a bout of volatility. But more tests for AI debt are coming.
甲骨文公司将于周三举行投资者日。而超大规模云服务商Alphabet和亚马逊公司分别定于周三和周四收盘后公布季度业绩。
Oracle holds its Investor Day on Wednesday. And hyperscalers Alphabet and Amazon.com are scheduled to report quarterly results after the market close on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
信贷市场对AI债务的洪流感到紧张，尽管最近担忧情绪有所缓和。Meta Platforms周一宣布的950亿美元股票发行计划，有助于降低其信用违约互换息差。该公司上周报告第三季度自由现金流为负后，这些息差曾上升。其他CDS息差也曾上升，但此后已有所回落。
Credit markets are on edge over a flood of AI debt, though fears have eased up a little lately. Meta Platforms' plans for a $95 billion stock offering, announced on Monday, helped bring down its credit-default swap spreads. Those spreads had risen last week when the company reported negative free cash flow in the third quarter. Other CDS spreads had moved higher too, though they have since backed off.
投资者原本预计Meta将在其财报公布后不久将大规模债券交易推向市场，Nuveen投资级企业部门负责人Richard Cheng表示。该计划未被宣布，这一事实令人松了一口气。
Investors had expected Meta to bring a large bond deal to market shortly after its earnings announcement, said Richard Cheng, head of Nuveen's investment-grade corporate sector team. The fact that it wasn't announced came as a relief.
“仅仅是债券交易本身的缺席，就是AI相关息差收窄的直接催化剂，”他说。
"Just the absence of the bond deal itself is a direct catalyst for AI-related spread tightening," he said.
信用息差是指相近期限的企业债券与国债之间的收益率差。当息差收窄时，意味着投资者对债券发行人的信心正在增强。担忧“被夸大”过去几天的市场走势表明，投资者正在认识到“信贷担忧可能被夸大了”，CNBC撰稿人、Freedom Capital Markets技术研究主管Paul Meeks表示。
A credit spread is the difference in the yield between the corporate bonds and Treasurys of similar maturities. When spreads tighten, it means investors are becoming more confident about the bond issuer. Fears 'overblown' The market action over the last few days shows that investors are recognizing that "credit fears may have been overblown," said CNBC contributor Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets.
“我预计，在未来几周公司公布季度业绩期间，这种更好的情绪——也许不算好，但比较好——可能会持续。”不过，由于AI领域债券发行激增且自由现金流转为负，过去一年CDS息差仍保持较高水平。例如，Meta的CDS息差今年以来上涨了177%，而亚马逊的息差上涨了129%。债券收益率也仍处于高位。
"I expect that these better feelings, maybe not good but better, may continue as companies announce their quarters over the next few weeks." Still, spreads on CDS remain wider over the past year due to a surge of debt issuance and free cash flows turning negative across the AI space. Meta's CDS spread, for instance, is still up 177% year to date, while Amazon's spread has gained 129%. Bond yields also remain elevated.
“这不一定是基本面问题，”CreditSights分析师乔丹·查尔芬说，“我更倾向于说，80%是由技术面和情绪驱动的。”备受关注的财报Alphabet和Amazon将成为科技债券的下一个重大考验，因为它们将更新资本支出计划和自由现金流预测。微软的财报也将于周三公布，但该公司尚未发行任何债券来支付其AI支出。
"It's not necessarily fundamentals," said CreditSights analyst Jordan Chalfin. "It's more, I'd say, 80% driven by technicals and sentiment." Earnings in focus Alphabet and Amazon pose the next big hurdle for tech bonds as they update their capex plans and free cash flow forecasts. Microsoft's earnings are also due Wednesday, but the company has yet to issue any bonds to pay for its AI spending.
亚马逊和Alphabet在第二季度均录得负自由现金流，分析师预计这一趋势将延续。
Both Amazon and Alphabet reported negative free cash flow in the second quarter and analysts expect that trend to have continue.
根据FactSet的共识预估，分析师预计Alphabet第三季度将录得-23亿美元的自由现金流，同时支出552亿美元用于资本开支。亚马逊预计将录得-99亿美元的自由现金流，资本开支为587亿美元。
Analysts expect Alphabet to report free cash flow of -$2.3 billion while spending $55.2 billion on capital expenditures in the third quarter, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Amazon is expected to report -$9.9 billion in free cash flow against capex of $58.7 billion.
标普全球评级在8月份的一份报告中估计，超大规模云服务商将在2026年和2027年出现负自由经营现金流。
S&P Global Ratings estimated in an August report that the hyperscalers will have negative free operating cash flow in 2026 and 2027.
成说，更关键的是它们的前景。“投资者心中唯一关注的，真的是超大规模云服务商领域的资本支出指导轨迹会是什么样子。”米克斯认为，高企的资本开支是强劲AI需求的迹象。超大规模云服务商“已经决定，基于他们掌握的所有证据——而且他们掌握的证据比你我多——这笔支出是值得的，不仅如此，它是必须的，”他说。
More critical will be their outlooks, Cheng says. "The singular focus on the investors' minds is really what the capex guidance trajectory looks like across the hyperscaler space." Meeks believes elevated capex is a sign of strong AI demand. The hyperscalers have "decided that with all the evidence they have — and they have more than you and me — that this is worthwhile spending, and not just worthwhile; it's required," he said.
CreditSights的查尔芬不认为超大规模云服务商会在财报公布期间宣布重大新债券发行。甲骨文的更新对信贷市场可能更为关键。该公司已发行1170亿美元的长期债务，并维持着BBB-1的投资级信用评级，这是标普评级中高于垃圾级的最低投资级水平。
CreditSights' Chalfin doesn't expect the hyperscalers to announce major new bond issuance around their earnings reports. Oracle's updates may be more critical for credit markets. The company has issued $117 billion in long-term debt and is clinging to an investment-grade credit rating of BBB-1, the lowest level of investment grade above junk, according to S&P.
“这只是投资级科技债中最重要的一档，考虑到它相对A级债券略显承压，”他说。“尽管它属于投资级，但交易表现更像高收益债，因此投资者对它的担忧很多。”
"It's the most important IG tech credit, just given how it's a bit more stressed relative to the A-rated names," he said. "It's trading more like a high-yield credit, even though it's IG, and so there's just a lot of investor concern on that one."
表外债务 AI债务故事的一个细节是：资产负债表并未揭示全部情况。标普全球在9月的一份报告中表示，这些公司正在为数据中心和芯片融资使用复杂的表外安排，且不够透明。
Off-balance sheet debt One wrinkle to the AI debt story: balance sheets don't reveal the whole picture. The companies are using complicated off-balance sheet arrangements for data centers and chip financing, and they aren't fully transparent, S&P Global said in a September report.
“他们正在签订一些承诺，例如数据中心租赁或芯片采购承诺，这些不一定被视为债务，”标普全球评级数字基础设施行业负责人马克·哈比布周一在CNBC的《街头早报》节目中表示。
"There are commitments they are entering into, for example, into data center leases or purchase commitments on chips that aren't necessarily treated as debt," Mark Habib, digital infrastructure sector lead at S&P Global Ratings, said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" Monday.
标普试图为市场提供更多这些承诺的可见性，“以便更完整地了解他们实际上承担了哪些义务，”他补充道。
S&P is trying to provide the market with more visibility on those commitments "to give a fuller picture of what kinds of obligations they're actually entering into," he added.
除甲骨文外，超大规模云服务商的信用评级均舒适地高于A级——这反映了它们拥有广泛多元化的收入来源、充足的利息支付覆盖率，以及在选择时增加杠杆的能力。
Oracle aside, hyperscaler credit ratings are all comfortably above A levels — reflecting the fact that they have broadly diversified revenue streams, ample coverage for interest payments, and capacity to add leverage if they choose.
纽维恩的程先生并不担心，他指出，虽然出现了一些信用重新定价，但并没有信用危机。
Nuveen's Cheng isn't concerned, pointing out that while there has been some credit repricing, there is no credit crisis.
“它们继续拥有卓越的信用状况、强劲的现金流和流动性，”他谈到最大的超大规模云服务商时说。
"They continue to have exceptional credit profiles, strong cash generation liquidity," he said of the largest hyperscalers.
“目前市场并不担心信用质量，”程先生补充道。“这真正只是资本支出需求的轨迹以及为其融资的债务供应问题。这两者都指向同一个方向——那就是上升。”
"The market is really not concerned about credit quality at this point," Cheng added. "It's really just the trajectory of the capex needs and the supply of debt to fund that. Both of those are pointing in one direction — and that's up."